ACTIONABLE ADVICE FOR FINANCIAL ADVISORS: Newsletters and Commentaries Focused on Investment Strategy

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2014-06-07 The Modern Portfolio Flat Earth Society by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

Math and physics are rooted in equations that spit out precise answers; vagueness there is dangerous — for the right reasons. That is why they are called exact sciences. Investing, despite being taught as an almost exact science, is far from it. It is a craft that falls somewhere between art and science.

2013-05-30 Are We There Yet? by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

I started writing my first book, Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets, in 2005; finished it in 2007; and published the second, an abridged version of the first (The Little Book of Sideways Markets), in 2010. In both books I made the case that there is a very high probability that we are in the midst of a secular sideways market a market that goes up and down, with a lot of cyclical volatility, but ends up going nowhere for a long time.

2011-07-05 The Chinese Black Swan by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

Party rulers in China are trapped in a position that chess players deeply fear - zugzwang - where any move make puts you at disadvantage. In China, the cost of both action and inaction is potential economic collapse.

2011-03-22 No Shortcuts to Greatness by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

Nothing defined Alan Greenspan's tenure as chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank more than his wholehearted embrace of capitalism. According to a current Fed governor, however, both Greenspan's Fed and the Fed today have not been the stalwarts of capitalism that the Maestro believed them to be.

2011-03-15 Margin Shrinkage - It Can Happen to You by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

Profit margins are a tick away from all-time highs and are creating the impression of cheap equity valuations. But that impression is a mirage, because today's generous margins are destined to shrink.

2011-01-26 Set the Bar High by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

The world today is riddled with unique economic, political, and demographic risks. Finding attractively priced assets that will perform well in spite of these challenges is excruciatingly difficult. For investors, though, one segment of the market ? the highest-quality stocks ? still offers attractive risk-adjusted returns.

2010-11-30 QE2: Beware the Perils of its Success by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

QE2 is like a drug prescription that comes with a list of side effects that are often worse than the disease it was supposed to cure. It is difficult to know the unintended consequences of QE2, but it may result in a substantial decline in the dollar, stagflation, lower economic growth and much higher interest rates.

2010-11-16 A Reading List for 2010: Part 2 by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

Updated for 2010 and in time for the holidays, here is the latest installment of my recommended books. I originally wrote this list in 2008 and again last year. I intend to keep adding to and revising it every year. It contains seven sections: Selling, Think Like an Investor, Behavioral Investing, Economics, Stock Market History, Risk and Books for the Soul. The first three sections were presented last week and the remaining four are presented here.

2010-11-09 A Reading List for 2010 by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

Updated for 2010 and in time for the holidays, here is the latest installment of my recommended books. I originally wrote this list in 2008 and again last year. I intend to keep adding to and revising it every year. It contains seven sections: Selling, Think Like an Investor, Behavioral Investing, Economics, Stock Market History, Risk and Books for the Soul. The first three sections are presented below and the remaining four will be presented next week.

2010-07-22 Musings on Asia by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

The popping of both the Chinese and Japanese bubble economies will lead to higher interest rates. The Japanese government will probably not be able to intervene in the economy for much longer, and so rates in that country will rise and there will be little they can do about it. China's government, meanwhile, seems to be mulling another multi-hundred-billion-dollar stimulus over the next few months. The Chinese government's actions are thus the wild card that will determine the duration and the magnitude of the bubble's pop - the longer they intervene, the direr the consequences will be.

2010-02-12 Video Interview: China, Pfizer, Vodaphone, Dox 10k; Travel (mis) Adventures and Lessons by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates got snowed in at the airport on the way to Bermuda. He says choosing flights is like picking stocks: We are constantly making decisions based on imperfect information.

2010-02-09 China?s Quest for a Shortcut to Greatness by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

The Chinese economy must be getting out of control, because the Chinese government is doing the unthinkable: It is desperately trying to put the brakes on its economy. Author and fund manager Vitaliy Katsenelson looks back at how China got into this trouble and looks forward to China's prospects.

2010-02-02 Who will Pay for the Burlington Acquisition? by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

According to investment manager Vitaliy Katsenelson, Warren Buffett overpaid in Berkshire's acquisition of Burlington Northern. He states, "Though I agree with Buffett's assessment of the Kraft-Cadbury deal, I fear that investors and media are completely ignoring Berkshire's own, $30-billion-plus acquisition of a very cyclical, capital-intensive, not terrifically high-return-on-capital business - Burlington Northern."

2010-02-02 More Government in the Financial Sector to Save Capitalism by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

In this article, Vitaliy Katsenelson argues that, despite his free market bias, the "too big to fail" banks will benefit from tighter regulation.

2009-12-15 Investing in Range-bound Markets by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

Vitaliy Katsenelson, a frequent contributor to these pages, reviews his thesis for secular market cycles, why the US markets remain locked in a range-bound state, and what it will take for them to exit from that state.

2009-12-08 Dubai?s Moon Shot by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

Dubai is like NASA; both have proven that anything is possible when you ignore economic costs. As Vitaliy Katsenelson writes, many technological discoveries were made in the process of putting a man on the moon; but the project did have, and was expected to have, a negative return on capital.

2009-11-17 Our Steroidally Challenged Economy by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

Vitaliy Katsenelson writes that the US economy is like a marathon runner who, after suffering an injury, takes steroids in order to return to racing. His performance is fine, but what don't see are the risks, just as our economy is now "steroidally challenged."

2009-11-03 The Best Books on Investing by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

Author and fund manager Vitaliy Katsenelson provides us with his list of the best books on investing. It contains six sections: Selling, Think Like an Investor, Behavioral Investing, Economics, Stock Market History, and Books for the Soul.

2009-10-13 Michael Moore ? Take This! by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

Vitaliy Katsenelson doesn't do movie reviews, and he hasn't watched Michael Moore's previous movies. But when a Denver Post reporter invited him to a private showing of Moore's latest flick, "Capitalism: a Love Story," its subject matter enticed the Russian-born author to check it out, and he has a few choice words for Moore and his anti-capitalistic views.

2009-09-28 Will Japan drive our interest rates higher? by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

2009-09-15 Five Reasons to Avoid the Gold Rush (Updated) by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

The reasons why one should sell the cat, pawn the mother-in-law, and use the proceeds to buy gold are well known. However, in this guest contribution, Vitaliy Katsenelson offers arguments why one should think twice before jumping in bed with the gold bugs, or at least remain sober while determining gold's weight in the portfolio.

2009-09-01 Another Confirmation of Chinese Not-so-miracle Growth; September - the Worst Month of the Year by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

2009-08-25 Beating a Dead Dragon by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

The last thing you may want to read is another article about China - how many ink cartridges have been exhausted writing about its phenomenal growth numbers in the past decade? - but what Vitaliy Katsenelson has to say may surprise you: China's economy is hardly as vibrant as everyone thinks it is.

2009-08-18 Healthcare Game by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

2009-08-17 You Kiddin' Me? by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

2009-08-06 China's Growth an Accounting Miracle by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

2009-07-28 The Simple Math of China's Staggering Growth by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

2009-06-18 Five Reasons to Avoid the Gold Rush by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

2009-06-01 The Susan Boyle of Software by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

2009-05-20 Are We in a Cyclical or Secular Bull Market? by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

2009-05-12 How Stealing Chrysler Threatens Our Markets by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

2009-04-28 The Next Great Bubble? by Vitaliy Katsenelson (Article)

One more bubble, please. After the bubbles in technology, housing, and commodities, we saw the mother of all bubbles: the one in global liquidity. The world economy seemed to require bubbles for its continued functioning. Guest contributor Vitaliy Katsenelson says investors' prayers are now being answered: There's a new bubble now - or an old one is being re-inflated - which he calls the Troubled China Revival Program (TCRP).

2009-02-12 Worries in the Middle East; Exxon Apostasy Continued. by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

2008-04-24 Is it a Bull, Bear or Cowardly Lion Market? by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates

2008-03-05 Katsenelson Predicts by Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates


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