More by the Same Author
2012-08-23 No Recession Now - But When? by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live
There have been a few calls as of late (Hussman, ECRI, Shilling) stating that we are currently in the next recession. Then there is everyone else. While the "optimistic" outlook is always more enjoyable to listen to - the problem is that the current "no recession" view is primarily predicated on current quarter growth rates looked at in isolation. These data points are then extrapolated into continuous future economic expansion.
2012-05-15 Sex, Money and Largesse: The Hidden Depression by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live
"Sex" and "Money" are probably two of the most powerful words in the English language. First, those two words got you to look at this article. They also sell products, books and services from "How To Have Better Sex" to "How To Make More Money" ostensibly so you can have more of the former. Unfortunately, they are also the two primary causes of divorce in the country today.
2012-05-03 Likely Triggers of the Next Recession by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live
The conjecture about the next recession has raged ever since the end of the last one. Will it be in 2012 or 2013 or, if you believe the many mainstream economists' estimates, never? Historically speaking, recessions have occurred on average of about every 6-8 years regardless of monetary or fiscal policies, the strength of the economy or global peace - they occurred nonetheless. There is really no argument whether there will be a recession in our future. The only question is the timing and cause of it. The latter point is the most important. Recessions do not just happen. They need a push.
2012-04-25 Impatience Will Lead To Our Demise by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live
What is both disturbing and disappointing is the lack of foresight exhibited by the media and political leaders of not only Europe but the U.S. as well. It should not be a surprise to anyone that the austerity regimen, agreed to last month as a long term solution to Europe's sovereign debt crisis, is going to cause economic growth to slow. We have been very vocal about this point. Austerity measures cannot be imposed when an economy is saddled by rising debt costs and high unemployment. It will reduce economic output and therefore requires a strongly growing economy to offset the drag.
2012-04-17 10 More Years of Low Returns by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live
Ten more years of low returns in the stock market. If you are one of the millions of baby boomers headed into retirement-start saving more and spending less because the stock market won't bail you out. I will explain why this is the likely future ahead for investors. In this weekends newsletter I wrote that "If you put all of your money into cash today and dont look at the market for another decade you will be better off..."I realize that this statement is equivalent to heresy where Wall Street is concerned but there is one reason behind my apparent madness - the power of reversion.
2012-02-22 Media Headlines Will Lead You To Ruin by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live
Two weeks ago Barron's ran the cover page of "Dow 15,000". Over the weekend Alan Abelson ran a column titled "Everyone In The Pool". Today, CNBC leads with "Dow 13,000 May Finally Lure Investors Back Into Stocks". Unfortunately, for most investors, the CNBC headline is probably right. Investors, on the whole, have a tendency to do exactly the opposite of what they should do when it comes to investing: "Buy High and Sell Low." The reality is that the emotions of greed and fear do more to cause investors to lose money in the market than being robbed at the point of a gun.
2011-11-30 Markets Surge As World Engages In Global Bailout by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live
Today, the remaining survivors of the global financial rout have coordinated an "all in" gamble to save the world from the next impending crisis. This morning's announcement that the Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Bank of Canada will lower the rates on currency swaps as well as lower pricing on existing US Dollar swaps provides a massive liquidity canon for the global financial system. While the markets are surging, the important take away here is that the world is in FAR WORSE shape than has previously been discussed.
2011-10-07 Bearish Sentiment Abounds by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live
The bears have control of Wall Street and have mauled stocks for the past five months. Now with bearish sentiment running amok, is it time to begin investing back into the market for "longer term" investors? Lately there have been numerous analysts and media outlets touting the cheapness of the markets based on forward earnings expectations. The problem with that premise is that it is highly likely that those expectations are too lofty considering the economic slowdown currently in progress. Furthermore, valuation models are horrible "timing" indicators for both traders and investors.
2011-09-15 The Great American Economic Lie by Lance Roberts of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com)
The idea that the economy has grown at roughly 5% since 1980 is a lie. In reality the economic growth of the U.S. has been declining rapidly over the past 30 years supported only by a massive push into deficit spending. From 1950-1980 the economy grew at an annualized rate of 7.7%. This was accomplished with a total credit market debt to GDP ratio of less than 150%. The CRITICAL factor to note is that economic growth was trending higher during this span, going from roughly 5% to a peak of nearly 15%. The end game of three decades of excess is upon us.