More on Related Themes
2013-05-15 Weekly Market Commentary by Team of Tuttle Tactical Management
We have been talking about some troubling divergences in the market for the past couple of weeks. These have worked themselves out--- Small and mid cap stocks are now outperforming the S&P 500 over the past week and month and Treasury Bond yields are coming back up.
2013-05-07 Attractive Dividends? Earnings Growth? A Way to Get Both by Team of Lord Abbett
International equities provide broader opportunities for combining appealing divided yields and earnings growth.
2013-04-24 The 5% Problem: Double Jeopardy for Traditional Bond Investors by Nathan Rowader of Forward Management
Investors have suffered with low yields, but profited from rising bond values during the 30-year bull market for bonds. We believe the bond market is moving into a bearish phase, putting the value of existing bond holdings at risk. A variety of income-producing options are available for those who want to diversify bond portfolios and seek better yields. Historical analysis shows that a diversified portfolio would have outperformed traditional bonds during the last bear bond market and in periods of rising interest rates.
2013-04-12 The Truth About The Impact Of Dividend Reinvesting by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs
What follows will be several examples of different kinds of dividend paying stocks offered in order to provide deeper insight into several commonly held notions. With each example, I will focus on how much return comes from dividends and how much comes from capital appreciation. I will also illustrate the precise benefits and effects of dividend reinvestment as it applies to different types of dividend paying stocks.
2013-04-03 Weekly Market Review Notes by Team of Tuttle Tactical Management
After hitting a record close last week the market is showing some warning signs, which is to be expected. You don’t typically break through an important resistance point without testing it and re-testing it so some volatility around a record high is normal. We are also slightly concerned that small and mid cap stocks have drastically underperformed the S&P 500 over the past two days.
2013-03-27 Weekly Market Review Notes by Team of Tuttle Tactical Management
The continuing mess in Cyprus and the S&P 500 nearing a record close dominated the news this week. As I said last week, Cyprus is insignificant, the only important aspects of what is going on is timing. If the crisis hit the news during a time when the market was oversold and due for a rally then it would have little, if any, impact. The fact that that market has rallied this year without much of a selloff gives traders an excuse to use something like this to take profits.
2013-03-20 Weekly Market Review Notes by Team of Tuttle Tactical Management
The banking crisis in Cyprus dominated the news this week as the market sold off 3 days in a row after being up 10 days in a row. The selloff was blamed on what was going on in Cyprus but that was not the real story. Globally Cyprus is pretty insignificant, most people probably don’t even know where it is. The real story is that markets just don’t go up for 10 straight days without needing a breather from time to time, Cyprus was just an excuse to take some profits.
2013-02-16 How To Remain Solvent Longer Than The Market Is Irrational by Team of F.A.S.T. Graphs
I believe it is extremely important that investors focus on the value of what they own more than they do on the day-to-day machinations of price volatility. However, I also believe, and even recognize, that very few investors are capable of ignoring volatile stock price movements. When the price of a stock that they own is rising or falling, especially when the swings are large and/or violent, it is very difficult for people to maintain a steady head and hand. Instead, emotions take over reason which often cause otherwise rational investors to make irrational decisions.
2013-02-06 Market Commentary by Matthew Tuttle of Tuttle Tactical Management
The long awaited sell off finally came this week as the market suffered its worst day since November. The decline seems to have somewhat solved the overbought situation as the market rallied back the next day.
2013-01-16 Haka Politics and the Slow Crawl by Christian Thwaites of Sentinel Investments
In the last few months we have seen the rise of Haka politics. Familiar to any All Blacks fan, this is the ritualistic Maori war dance, full of noise, bluster and theater. But it rarely intimidates and most opponents sit it out with some amusement. So it is with the political interventions last year. We saw countless announcements and intentions from EU leaders and solemn pledges with little follow-through. And in the US we had a soporific election and a squalid squabble over the fiscal cliff that caught the public but not the market's attention.
2013-01-15 Land of the Rising Dead by Christian Thwaites of Sentinel Investments
Yes, you knew we were going to talk about Japan. It's all the rage and the big standout in market performance in the last few weeks. Since November the broad Nikkei-225 average has risen 24% because there's new thinking in town. It's hard to describe Japan's 20 year malaise. Once proud companies shaken, the shattering of a property market and total collapse of stocks. Even if the market rises at the same level of the last few months, it will take six years to re-reach its peak. A more reasonable 10% growth rate will take 14 years. Weird things happen when economies enter deflation.
2013-01-04 Newsletter by Harold Evensky of Evensky & Katz
As always I hope you will enjoy this issue, as much as I have enjoyed putting it together. Most important though I wish one and all a very happy, prosperous and healthy new year!
2013-01-03 5 Investment Ideas for a Post-Fiscal Cliff Deal World by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog
As discussed in previous posts, Congress kicked off the New Year with a bare bones deal to avert (or at least delay) the fiscal cliff. Though markets responded positively to the news Wednesday morning, the euphoria isn't likely to last.
2012-12-26 Gundlach's High-Conviction Investment Idea by Robert Huebscher (Article)
Count Jeffrey Gundlach among those who expect Japan's currency to collapse because it can't service its debt. Japan's challenges may parallel those that the US faces, and Gundlach feels strongly that they have created a compelling investment opportunity.
2012-12-18 Jeremy Siegel on 'Dow 15,000' by Robert Huebscher (Article)
Jeremy Siegel was one of very few individuals to have correctly predicted the strong performance of the equity markets over the last year. The Wharton professor and author of the renowned book, Stocks for the Long Run, forecasts continued strong performance for the year ahead.
2012-12-07 3 Implications of a Fiscal Cliff Tax Hike by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog
From the outside, its hard to find much evidence that Washington is getting closer to a fiscal cliff deal. Perhaps there is more going on behind the scenes than the headlines suggest, but as of today it is hard to find much evidence that the odds of a deal have risen. As the potential for fiscal drag rises, it is worth reiterating why this is so dangerous. From my perspective, the biggest risk to the economy, and to financial markets, comes from the tax side of the equation.
2012-11-27 The Superiority of Dividends: A Comparison of Value Strategies by Geoff Considine (Article)
Dividend-focused strategies have won the allegiance of many prominent investors, including Rob Arnott, Bill Gross and Jeremy Siegel. Others claim value-based strategies offer superior risk-adjusted returns. Both sides can claim a partial victory in this debate, but I will show that, when understood properly, dividend strategies offer a crucial edge - one that many investors will find attractive.
2012-11-17 Election Dividends by Sean Bonner of Carne Capital
As the market continues to sell off, these are names to keep an eye on. The performance of high dividend paying stocks can be expected to remain volatile for the near future, both to the upside and downside. The selling may continue to feed on itself, but if a deal on dividend tax rates can be reached these names may at least revert to the mean and outperform the broad market.
2012-11-15 3 Reasons Not to Flee Dividend Stocks by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog
As the fiscal cliff approaches, investors are becoming wary of dividend stocks, unsettled by the potential for a near tripling of the tax on dividends. But Russ K explains why he remains comfortable with dividend paying stocks with one major exception.
2012-11-14 Helplessly Hoping...That a Market Riot Isn't Needed for Fiscal Cliff Fix by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab
A status-quo election puts the "fiscal cliff" front and center. The stock market's knee-jerk reaction was to sell; could further weakness light a fire under politicians? Good news has come from recent economic numbers, but sentiment will remain under pressure until the fiscal cliff is resolved.
2012-10-12 The Fiscal Cliff and Your Portfolio by Travis Fairchild, Patrick O'Shaughnessy of O'Shaughnessy Asset Management
Whether or not we find ourselves staring over the fiscal cliff come January 1 is still very much in question, but investors are understandably concerned with what the resultant tax increases may mean for their portfolio values and dividend income. If Congress is unable to reach a compromise between now and January 2013, President Bush's 2003 tax cuts will expire and tax rates on income, dividends, and capital gains will increase by significant margins.
2012-10-09 Dividend Income: Music to Our Ears by ClearBridge Advisors (Article)
The hunger for income among investors is helping put dividends in the spotlight, say Hersh Cohen and Mike Clarfeld of ClearBridge.
2012-10-09 A Q3 Letter to Clients - Insights from a Wall Street Legend by Dan Richards (Article)
Here is a template for a letter to serve as a starting point for advisors looking to send clients an overview of the past 90 days and the outlook for the period ahead. In it, I draw upon investing principles articulated by the legendary Barton Biggs, who passed away earlier this year.
2012-10-09 High-Dividend Yield Strategy under the Microscope by Michael Nairne (Article)
High-dividend yield stocks have become the favorite recommendation of a host of advisors, but an undue focus on income alone obscures the irreducible fact that long-term investment success is based on the total return of a portfolio including both income and capital growth. This raises two questions. How has the total return of a high-dividend yield strategy fared relative to the market? How does its total-return performance compare to the returns of other possible stock-selection strategies?
2012-09-28 The Danger of Safety by Owen Murray of Horizon Advisors
Investors have become cautious and anxious following the bear market of the past twelve years and the recent bouts of extreme volatility. We examine risks and opportunities in light of the difficult market environment in our special report The Danger of Safety."
2012-08-27 Copeland White Paper I: Dividends and Tax Rates by David McGonigle of Copeland Capital Management
As it stands today, barring a political compromise, the highest tax rate payable on dividends will jump from 15.0% to 43.4% for the 2013 tax year. That sets up two important questions for investors in dividend-oriented strategies.
2012-06-13 The Tip of the Iceberg For Dividend Stocks by Team of Columbia Management
Post-crisis equity investors seek to lower portfolio volatility. Dividend stocks have provided higher returns with less risk compared with non-dividend payers. Baby boomers are retiring now with much smaller nest eggs than they had anticipated. They need reliable sources of income and growth. Cash-rich companies are in a position to pay and potentially grow dividends, while dividend payout ratios are historically low. Active managers leverage in-depth research to uncover promising opportunities among companies likely to initiate or raise dividends.
2012-06-05 Finding the Best Dividend Fund by Geoff Considine (Article)
Assets are flowing into dividend-stock funds. But many experts are warning that those investors are setting themselves up for significant losses. Using an objective methodology that assesses tradeoff between yield and risk, we can determine those funds that investors should prefer - and a few they should avoid.
2012-05-30 Navigating the Equity Market by Pamela Rosenau of HighTower Advisors
Between now and the Greek election on June 17th, I expect we will see a consistent negative bias in the equity market. According to Citigroup global equity strategist Tobias Levkovich, sentiment has shifted rapidly from complacency in March to panic in the latest readings of their Panic/Euphoria Model. He adds that these readings are a contrary indicator, in addition to valuation metrics, arguing statistically that we may see market gains over the next two or three quarters.
2012-05-29 What Does a Dividend Tax Hike Mean for Dividend-paying Stocks? by Steve Chun (Article)
The Bush tax cuts are due to expire at the end of this year, but owners of dividend-paying
stocks need not be afraid. Historically, changes in tax regimes have had little
effect on the value of the aggregate stock market. Historical data show that even
vulnerable asset sub-classes - high-yield stocks, for example - have not lost value
long-term as a result of similar tax increases.
2012-05-25 Going Defensive With Dividend Funds by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog
With markets likely to remain volatile in the near term, investors should consider dividend paying stock funds as a defensive play.
2012-04-12 Volatility Is Not Risk by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs
Rogers blog dealt with his feelings about a recurring theme in Barrons over the weekend referencing peoples complacency for risk. The first part of his writing dealt with the risks associated with the utilization of puts. On this subject, Roger and I are in agreement. However, the second part of his blog talked about what he felt was the great risk of using dividend paying equities as an alternative investment choice. The following analysis utilizing the F.A.S.T. Graphs earnings and price correlated research tool illuminates the important parts that I feel Roger left out.
2012-04-03 A Q1 Letter to Clients: Bernanke, Buffett and Siegel on the Prospects Ahead by Dan Richards (Article)
Here is a template for a letter to serve as a starting point for advisors looking to send clients a summary of what's happened in the past 90 days and the outlook for the period ahead.
2012-03-15 Where to Look for Dividends? Try Outside the US by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog
With the dividend corner of the US equity market now crowded and expensive, Russ gives three reasons why investors might want to consider looking abroad for dividend income. More Reasonable Valuations: Outside of the US, dividend paying stocks still appear cheap and are trading at a significant discount to the broader equity market. More Attractive Yields: Non-US dividend companies are offering more enticing yields. Outperformance in a Slow Growth Environment: high dividend paying stocks tend to outperform during periods of slow growth like the one were experiencing this year.
2012-03-09 Investors In Common Stocks Must Get Valuation Right; Heres How by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs
Investors should be careful and willing to always run the numbers out to their logical conclusions. But, it all starts with knowing what you are buying (investing in) in the first place. True investors, like Peter Lynch, and many of the other renowned investing greats such as Phil Fischer, Warren Buffett, etc., all invest as owners in businesses with a focus on the strength of the business behind the stocks they buy. Therefore, these investor greats are always buying the earnings power of the respective businesses they are investing in, relative to their goals and objectives.
2012-02-28 Dividends: Proposed New Tax Rates by Robert McConnaughey of Columbia Management
We are in a very attractive period for dividend paying equities. With yields from higher credit quality bonds at historical lows, an investing public hungry for income has to consider an increased allocation to equity income. The backdrop is positive for them to do so with healthy cash flows and historically low payout ratios creating a solid foundation for reliable and growing dividend yields. Given the strong outperformance of the highest current yielders in 2011, we continue to advocate seeking out companies with the ability to grow their dividends sustainably in the future.
2012-02-03 Sentinel's Top 10 Predictions For 2012 by Christian W. Thwaites of Sentinel Investments
i) the US is emerging stronger from this recovery than any other major economy ii) Europes woes are temporarily eased and iii) China is past the worst of its inflation scares. If that sounds muted, it is. The damage done to the economies through irresponsible lending and uncontrolled asset price inflation (the US) or unencumbered vendor financing and overvalued exchange rates (EU) was immense. Both meant huge banking messes. And households are the only ones who clean up banking messes. In time. Slowly. And thats where the world stands.
2012-01-13 The Top 25 Best Dividend Challengers To Buy Today by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs
This is the third and final article of a series of articles we have prepared on dividend paying stocks with a history and legacy of increasing their dividends each year. Our first article covered Dividend Champions, dividend paying stocks with a history of increasing every year for 25 years. Our second article covered Contenders, companies that have increased their dividend every year for 10-24 years. This final article in the series will cover\ Challengers, companies that increased their dividend every year for a minimum of five, to up to nine consecutive years.
2011-11-08 A Unique Way to Help Clients Close the Retirement Gap by Dan Richards (Article)
Clients facing a shortfall in retirement savings can bridge that gap in many ways. But one technique is often neglected: spending reductions - even small ones - in their everyday lives. A new web site gives clients the tools to quantify and manage those reductions.
2011-11-01 The Danger in European Stocks by Geoff Considine, Ph.D. (Article)
European equity prices, depressed by fears of a sovereign debt crisis, are cheap to such a degree that William Bernstein, author of The Intelligent Asset Allocator, called them a true bargain. Income-oriented investors, in particular, may be tempted by 4.2% dividend yields and a market-wide P/E ratio of approximately 11. My analysis, however, contradicts Bernstein's and shows the underlying risk those investments carry.
2011-10-11 A Q3 Client Letter Drawing on Buffett’s Optimism 'The U.S. is coming back now' - and why three inves by Dan Richards (Article)
Since 2008, each quarter I have posted a template for a letter to clients; these are consistently among my most popular articles. This quarter's letter provides clients with perspective on the recent market turmoil.
2011-09-22 Dividends: Paid To Wait and Poised to Rally by Mike Boyle of Advisors Asset Management
There are myriad clichs that capital market participants and commentators like to call on from time-to-time to help soothe the pain or illustrate the potential for gain. One that we believe applies on almost any given day concerning dividend paying stocks is, paid to wait. However, there are certain times, like now, when we think we can add the addendum, and poised to rally. We have been discussing for quite some time that we thought the U.S. equity markets were attractive based on current valuations and earnings growth (both current and projected), and that is still the case.
2011-09-16 Dividend Growth Investing: Understanding style and stock selection risks by Kevin Feldman of iShares Blog
In my last post on the resurgent popularity of dividend investing, I talked about why the strategy of buying dividend aristocrats has surged in popularity over the past decade. This time Id like to explore the challenges of picking individual stocks and the risk in shunning growth for value. First, remember that not all dividend stocks are created equal. Second, do you really want to be in the stock-picking business?
2011-09-07 Keep Calm, Carry On by Scott Minerd of Guggenheim
The markets overreaction has created an incredible opportunity in U.S. equities. In particular, I see value in high-dividend stocks. Many companies with strong cash flows and stellar credit ratings pay more in dividends than the yield on their bondsa situation that hasnt existed for such a large number of stocks since the 1950s. Without doubt, Europes problems indicate that further turbulence, even a retest of recent lows on the S&P 500, cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless, for investors with 2- to 5-year horizons, price dips represent buying opportunities.
2011-09-02 Dividend Growth: Volatile markets revive an old investing strategy by Kevin Feldman of iShares Blog
Lately I've been hearing a lot about the new dividend growth strategy: Simply buy the right blue chip stocks featuring rising dividends and youll be on the path to a more secure retirement. With regular headlines like Top 20 High Yielding Dividend Aristocrats and 10 Dividend-Paying Blue Chips for Your Parents, its no wonder Im hearing people at dinner parties buzzing about Coke (KO), J&J (JNJ) and P&G (PG) in a way that reminds me of my grandparents stacking up their stock certificates to keep up with dividend checks from these venerable value giants.
2011-08-23 Why Investors are 'Mad as Hell' – And what you can do about it by Dan Richards (Article)
Last Friday, Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal wrote about fear and anger as the two dominant attitudes of American investors today – fear about their future and anger at those they see as responsible for the latest crisis. Today's investor psyche has fundamental implications that will require changes in how you interact with clients. Before getting into how to respond, let’s look at what's driving today's mindset.
2011-07-26 Jeremy Siegel - Why I Changed My Mind about Index Funds by Dan Richards (Article)
Jeremy Siegel, the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, discusses what caused him to reject capitalization-weighted market indexes and what he chose instead. This is a transcript of the interview.
2011-07-26 Letters to the Editor by Various (Article)
A reader responds to our article, Gundlach: A Debt Ceiling Impasse Could Drive Rates Lower, which appeared last week. Another reader responds to Don Moir's letter to the editor, which was in response to Doug Short's commentary, A Short History of Dividend Stocks, which appeared on July 5.
2011-07-12 An End-of-Quarter Letter to Clients by Dan Richards (Article)
Given recent unrest in Europe and uncertainty about economic growth, many clients are looking to their advisors for direction. This template for an end-of-quarter letter is a starting point for your own letter to clients, one that can be a catalyst for a conversation about how to position portfolios.
2011-07-12 Letter to the Editor by Various (Article)
A reader responds to Doug Short’s commentary, A Short History of Dividend Stocks, which appeared on July 5.
2011-06-07 Has the hour of the dividend stock arrived? by Team of Columbia Management
Surveying the present financial landscape-what are investors’ options? Bonds have been enjoying historic popularity. But they are at market highs and come with return and income potential inherently capped by their coupons. Turning to Treasuries, the price-to-yield is particularly unattractive. Then there’s the specter of interest rate risk. The steep rebound of equities off the crisis bottom ended with the arrival of 2010, and double-digit returns for many formerly cheap stocks went with it. Following a period of volatility, we appear to have settled into the slow-growth stage.
2011-01-25 The Power of Dividends by C. Thomas Howard (Article)
New evidence refutes long-held beliefs about the role of dividends. Research shows that the higher a stock portfolio's dividend yield, the greater its return. And just as surprising are new findings about the relationship of dividends to volatility.
2011-01-04 Building a Better Income Portfolio by Geoff Considine, PhD (Article)
One of the greatest concerns for income-oriented investors is the possibility that dividends will be cut. The financial crisis showed that traditional metrics, such as a stock's dividend history and its payout ratio, failed to warn investors of impending dividend cuts. By evaluating stocks based on volatility, however, investors can select securities that are more likely to maintain or improve their dividend rates.
2010-12-28 The Ten Most-Read Articles in 2010 by Robert Huebscher (Article)
As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read articles over the past 12 months. In decreasing order, based on the number of unique readers, those are...
2010-10-29 Asset Allocation in an Uncertain Economy by Robert Huebscher (Article)
Advisors should not bet on whether the recession will be L-, V-, or W-shaped. Instead, Ron Albahary said they should use strategic asset allocation and overweight or underweight those asset classes that have historically done well at certain points in the economic cycle. Albahary is the CIO of Convergent Wealth Advisors, a Washington, DC-based wealth manager.
2010-10-19 Tales of the Bull and Bear Bond Market by Kendall J. Anderson of Anderson Griggs
The investment advisory business is competing to capture retirement dollars by offering new products that emphasize income. The greatest risk to any retiree is running out of money before they die. Most retirees understand this, so the idea of income for life sounds wonderful. What good is a guaranteed income payment, however, if the payment is not enough to cover the future cost of living? Current interest rates will not allow adequate income from bonds, or protect against the risk of inflation.
2010-10-12 How Not To Get Screwed by the Bond Bubble by Isbitts of Emerald Asset Advisors
Bond funds, particularly those that invest in U.S. Treasury securities and other types of bonds at the low end of the risk spectrum, have seen piles of new cash in 2010. Whether it is through long-short funds, arbitrage, multi-strategy or 'equity surrogates' like convertibles and REITs, however, it is possible to create a portfolio with a low standard deviation without having to be trapped by a low fixed rate and the threat of rising bond prices.
2010-08-11 Not in Kansas Anymore by David A. Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff
The transition to the next sustainable economic expansion and bull market in these types of business cycles takes between five and 10 years, and is fraught with periodic setbacks. While an underweight positions in equities still makes sense, a bar bell between basic materials and defensive dividend stocks is a prudent strategy, with the overall emphasis in the asset mix tilted towards bonds, especially the BB-rated sliver or that part of the higher quality non-investment grade space that currently has the greatest unexploited potential for spread compression and capital gains.
2010-07-12 Recession Odds Still on the Rise by David A. Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff
The Economic Cycle Research Institute's weekly leading index fell again last week despite the equity market bounce. The spot index fell 0.6 percent for the second week in a row, and the growth index slipped to -8.3 percent from -7.6 percent at the end of June. While this is the only indicator so far suggesting that recession odds are rising, once you get to -8.3 percent, looking at the historical record, downturns occur more often than not.
2010-07-06 The Ultimate Income Portfolio by Geoff Considine, Ph.D. (Article)
Conventional approaches to constructing income-oriented portfolios use either bonds or high-yield stocks. In this article, Geoff Considine explores a compelling alternative to that approach: a carefully selected model high-yield portfolio consisting primarily of low-beta, high-dividend stocks, against which the investor sells call options.
