ACTIONABLE ADVICE FOR FINANCIAL ADVISORS: Newsletters and Commentaries Focused on Investment Strategy

Follow us on
 Facebook  Twitter  LinkedIn  RSS Feed

    Last 14 days

Most Popular Articles


Most Popular Commentaries

    Last 12 Months

Most Popular Articles


Most Popular Commentaries

More on Related Themes


2014-04-08 Overcoming Fear and Loathing in Lost Wages by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Personal income, not job growth, may have drawn the ire of investors as stocks sold off on Friday. But look for the market to rebound on continued economic progress and soothing remarks from the Fed, writes Kristina Hooper.

2014-04-07 First Quarter of 2014 Brings Many Reversals, Regressions to the Mean by Ron Surz of PPCA

Unlike 2013, diversification worked in the first quarter of 2014. As revealed in our 2013 market commentary, U.S. stocks dominated with a 33% return while diversifying assets like commodities lost 10%. As shown in the graph on the right, diversification into real estate and commodities was handsomely rewarded in the first quarter.

2014-03-31 Will Jobs Benefit From a Spring Thaw? by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

The upcoming jobs report, a bellwether for the health of the US economy, could reveal that the harsh winter has created a coiled spring in the labor market, writes Kristina Hooper.

2014-03-24 Market Had Its Way With Yellen’s Words by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Fed Chair Janet Yellen got a taste for how sensitive investors are to her public remarks last week, but the kneejerk response was probably an overreaction, writes Kristina Hooper.

2014-03-18 Can the Fed Fend Off the Ides of March? by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Mid-March hasn’t been associated with much good luck in Europe historically. And with Ukraine mired in conflict, this year’s no different. But investors should resist the urge to react to geopolitical uncertainty and expect steady guidance from the Fed.

2014-03-10 With Fed in Charge, 5-Year Bull Run Poised to Continue by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

The Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy and gradual improvement in the economy are two big reasons the stock market can keep moving higher, says Kristina Hooper. Will it be reflected in this week’s consumer sentiment and spending data?

2014-03-04 What the Jobs Report Will Tell Us-And What It Won't by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Kristina Hooper puts the soon-to-be-released February employment report in context, including what it means for Fed policy, consumer confidence and stocks.

2014-02-14 Weather Related? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen & Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

The recent slowdown in economic data appears to be largely weather related and we believe decent growth will reassert itself. Stocks have bounced after a weak start to the year, but the threat of a further pullback remains, although our longer-term optimism has not been dented. Likewise, we believe Europe offers some attractive investment opportunities but we’re in a wait-and-see mode with Japan. Finally, we don’t see EM turmoil becoming overly contagious, but we are watching that situation closely.

2014-02-11 Triple Witching Hour Proves Benign by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Markets yawned their way past two big reports and one key deadline last week, but investors are still fleeing stock funds overall. It’s a strange brew that signals continued volatility ahead, says US Investment Strategist Kristina Hooper.

2014-01-13 Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Earnings Growth Propel Stocks Higher? by Jeff Miller of New Arc Investments

If you could know one thing about stocks in the coming year, it would be what to expect from corporate earnings. The Q4 2013 reports will provide a preview, with attention starting this week.

2014-01-10 5 Investor Tips for 2014 by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

While the winding down of QE signals better times ahead, investors need to be selective and focused in taking smart risks, says US Investment Strategist Kristina Hooper.

2014-01-06 2013: A Review of the Past, the Present and the Future by Ron Surz of PPCA Inc

This commentary is divided into three sections. I begin with a review of current U.S. and foreign stock markets, examining the year 2013 and the past six years, including the crash of 2008. This perspective serves as a launch point into the future, specifically 2014 and the remainder of this decade. I conclude with a review of the past 88 years of U.S. stock and bond markets.

2013-12-10 The Myth of the Most Efficient Market by Patrick O'Shaughnessy of O'Shaughnessy Asset Management

Perception of the U.S. large cap value market is that it’s the most efficient in the world, and therefore the hardest category for managers to outperform the benchmark. As a result, index funds and ETFs have been gaining dramatic market share. Our latest whitepaper debunks conventional thinking with empirically-proven factors that have significantly outperformed in the U.S. large cap space.

2013-11-19 Ignoble Prizes and Appointments by Jeremy Grantham of GMO

Chief investment strategist Jeremy Grantham comments on this year’s Nobel Prize in economics and "the most laughable of all assumption-based theories, the Efficient Market Hypothesis"; candidates to succeed Chairman Bernanke at the Fed; the impact of commodity price rises and the housing bubble in the crash of 2008; and prospects for the U.S. equity market.

2013-11-07 Putting Macro Trends in Context: What do They Mean to a Bottom-Up Investor? by Will Nasgovitz of Heartland Advisors

For some time now, we’ve had a generally positive economic outlook. The occasional setback is assured, but on the whole we believe that the U.S. economy is still in the early stages of a multi-year recovery.

2013-10-31 The Age of Experimentation (Global Economic Outlook for Fourth Quarter 2013) by Robert Scherfke of Hartford Funds

Macroanalyst Robert Scherfke, PhD discusses the progress global economies have made since 2008 and the challenges officials face as they normalize fiscal policies.

2013-10-23 Shifting Gears: The Fed Turns from Tapering to Tempering Expectations by Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson of Hartford Funds

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke surprised markets on September 18 by announcing a continuation of the Fed’s $85 billion-per-month bond purchases and more muted expectations for economic growth and inflation. With this proverbial monkey wrench thrown into the gears of financial markets, investors are now asking how the Fed’s new course changes the investment outlook.

2013-10-15 A Q3 client letter: Mike Tyson on Sticking to Your Plan by Dan Richards (Article)

Each quarter I post a template for a client letter, as a starting point for advisors who want to send clients an overview of the three months that just ended and the outlook for the period ahead.

2013-10-05 Pinch Yourself. U.S. Stock Markets Have Grown 145% in Four-Plus Years by Ron Surz of PPCA

Thankfully, 2008 has become a distant memory. We’ve made back its 37% loss and a lot more. Things are good, but are they going to stay that way? We still face anemic economic growth, burgeoning debt, global social unrest and more. The S&P 500 has returned 145% in the past 55 months (4.5 years).

2013-09-25 Surprise... by Blaine Rollins of 361 Capital

Clearly, the numbers didn’t meet the Fed’s preconditions for tapering. And while the jobless rate has fallen to 7.3% (from 8.1% when QE3, the current round of quantitative easing began), Bernanke had to acknowledge what’s been obvious to all. The decline in the jobless rate hasn’t occurred just because more folks are getting jobs; it’s because many are dropping out of the workforce, which means they’re not counted as unemployed by the government.

2013-09-17 The Upside of Low Expectations by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

The stock market has benefited from a pessimistic outlook recentlyand so could the consumer, writes Kristina Hooper.

2013-08-06 China's Slowdown by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

Over the past three decades, China has seen its economy grow significantly.

2013-07-30 Pennies from Heaven, Irrationality, and “Dys-information” by Chris Richey of Neosho Capital

If QE4 holds to course, ending, not just tapering, sometime in mid-2014, the U.S. will have spent 4+ years out of the past 6 living on monetary stimulus, all the while continuing to pile up ever more claims against future prosperity.

2013-07-09 U.S. Stocks Continue to Dominate – What’s Next? by Ron Surz (Article)

U.S. stocks earned 2.5% in the second quarter, bringing the year-to-date return up to a lofty 14%. By contrast, the EAFE index lost 1% in the quarter, bringing its year-to-date return down to 4%. In fact, as shown in the following graph, no other asset class comes even close to the return on U.S. stocks so far this year.

2013-05-16 Investors Living in Emerging Markets are a Bullish Bunch! by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton Investments

Part of my job involves putting myself out on a limb at times, and I have taken the risk of being subject to contrary (sometimes enthusiastically so) viewpoints. I’ve even been accused of being too optimistic about emerging markets, perhaps partly because my views often represent a stark contrast to dramatic news headlines. So when I took a look at the findings of Franklin Templeton Investments’ 2013 Global Investor Sentiment Survey (GISS),1 I was pleased to discover my longstanding optimism about emerging markets seems to be spreading among investors.

2013-04-08 Good Start to 2013. Domestic Stocks Earn 11% In First Quarter. by Ron Surz of PPCA

2013 stock markets started like 2012 stock markets with a bang. U.S. stock markets kicked off 2013 with a very good 10.7% return. Also like 2012’s first quarter, foreign markets didn’t fare as well, earning only 3.5% in the quarter. If we merely hold onto these gains for the remainder of the year we’ll do fine.

2013-03-25 Still Bullish by Richard Golod of Invesco

Global equities (as measured by the MSCI All Country World Index) fell modestly in February amid reignited fears about the euro’s future, signs of distress in China’s economy and the looming sequester deadline in the US. Nevertheless, I believe the US, Japan and emerging markets may offer compelling opportunities, while Europe requires a more selective approach.

2013-03-05 You’re The Cream of the Crop: Key Findings from the 2012 Advisor Perspectives Reader Survey by Jeff Briskin (Article)

Experienced. Results oriented. Focused on serving the needs of individuals and families. Confident in your abilities. Eager to expand your knowledge. If this sounds like you, you're not alone. These are the traits that stand out among Advisor Perspectives readers, based on the findings of our 2012 Reader Survey.

2013-03-05 Weekly Commentary & Outlook by Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn

Stocks drifted last week, buffeted by concerns over Europe due to the Italian elections and worries here at home as the "dreaded" sequester begins to take effect.

2013-02-20 Trying And Failing To Make The Math Work For Long-Term Bonds by Doug Ramsey, Eric Weigel of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management

For the past 31 1/2 years, owners of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds have earned "real" total returns of 6.7%on par with the long-term real return to equities. Long before government bonds matched real stock returns, they suffered a 55-year period that offered investors a real return of zero. The short-term implications of higher U.S. Treasury rates on asset allocation decisions.

2013-01-30 Expanding Horizons: The Most Difficult Environment for Generating Income in 140 Years by Ehren Stanhope, Travis Fairchild of O'Shaughnessy Asset Management

In the most difficult environment for generating income in 140 years, we survey the landscape of income-generating options, review lessons from the previous bond Bear Market, and demonstrate why we believe global, dividend-paying equities deserve a prominent role in investor portfolios.

2013-01-29 China's Last Soft Landing? by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate

On the surface, the Chinese economy's resilience has been impressive the first to recover, as Chinese leaders always want to remind the rest of the world. But, beneath the surface, the economy risks losing its capacity for resilience unless the authorities accelerate the transition to a more consumer-led economy.

2013-01-23 Inflated Expectations? by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Investors should prepare themselves for higher long-term inflation because the market may be ignoring it, a mistake that could come back to haunt. On the heels of encouraging economic data, central bankers are projecting only modest price increases for goods and services over the next 10 years. But history tells us that an inflation spike is inevitable when governments print money so aggressively. As such, investors with long-term time horizons should have substantial exposure to inflation-hedging asset classes. Now, more than ever, real returns matter.

2013-01-11 The Margin Debate by Mebane Faber of World Beta

One of the more interesting debates regarding stock valuations is the state of profit margins. One one side you have Hussman and GMO lining up, and on the other Jeremy Siegel and Redleaf. Im on the side of the former, and this is one of the reasons we have moved the majority of our equity allocations to foreign markets (valuations being another).

2012-12-17 The Fed's New Math and What It Means by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Central bankers are scrapping the use of a timeline to determine how long to keep interest rates at record lows. Rather, they will tie rate increases to specific unemployment and inflation targets. There is definitely more clarity around the Fed's decision making now than ever. The question is, will such "outcome targeting" really change the outcome? In looking at the last three economic recoveries, the average time it took for unemployment to fall from 7.7%, our current level, to 6.5%, was 26.6 months.

2012-12-12 Mish Shedlock Exposed by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

In January 2009, just as the "Peter Schiff was Right" YouTube video that catalogued my previously derided predictions about a coming financial collapse was racking up views and attracting mainstream attention, a blogger and investment advisor named Mike Shedlock (aka "Mish") saw an opportunity to make an unethical grab at my current and prospective clients by breaking the nascent wave.

2012-09-17 "QE" Stands for Quality Employment by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

The Fed's expansive and open-ended quantitative easing program centers on building up a depleted workforce and quickening the pace of the housing recovery, but higher inflation and tight credit could play the role of spoiler. Buying mortgage-backed securities and pushing interest rates lower is designed to boost the housing sector, help loosen lending standards, stimulate corporate spending and increase foreign demand for U.S. products. This is a tall order and there are many "ifs" in this scenario, but the flexibility and breadth of QE3 increases the likelihood of its effectiveness.

2012-08-27 Inside the Feds Head by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Now more than ever, investors are getting a glimpse into the minds of policy makers. While economic forecasts remain foggy, recent FOMC minutes reveal why the Fed is sharpening its tools and which ones it is likely to use.

2012-08-07 Mixed Signals Color Downgrade Anniversary by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Two trouble spots for the economy, the job market and housing, generated some good vibes amid gloom over no action from central banks and manufacturing weakness. Unfortunately, it wasnt enough to push the stock market into positive territory for the week. But looking through a longer-term lens, stocks have been resilient since last year's debt-ceiling drama and Standard & Poors downgrade of U.S. debt.

2012-07-23 Housing, Profits Shine Amid Rain in Spain by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

Despite continued crisis in Europes periphery pressuring stocks, a rebound in housing, surprisingly strong profits and a spike in M&A activity may point to a healthier U.S. economy. And institutional equity managers are more optimistic on the stock market. However, with employment still showing weakness and the euro-zone crisis remaining a critical concern, one has to wonder why these institutional investors are becoming more bullish. Heres some insight into why they may be keeping the faith.

2012-07-11 China Fueling Auto Sales by Mark Mobius of Franklin Templeton

The picture postcard image many western travelers may have of Chinas city streets is one besieged with bicycles and empty of cars, but China is no longer pedaling its way into the futureits firmly in the drivers seat as autos rapidly replace human-powered transit. Motor vehicle sales have been booming in China, a reflection of the growing middle class. In 2009, car sales in China exceeded those in the United States, and in 2011, China led world auto production at 18.4 million units.

2012-07-10 Insights into the First Half of 2012 by Ron Surz (Article)

U.S. stock markets at mid-year have earned a respectable 9.5% return. A euphoric first quarter 12.6% gain gave way to a 2.8% minor setback in the second quarter. Foreign markets have not fared as well, earning only 3.4% over the first half of the year. The graph below provides the details, and adds a look at gold's performance.

2012-06-27 The Great American Mirage by Stephen Roach of Project Syndicate

In September 1998, during the depths of the Asian financial crisis, the US Federal Reserves then-chairman, Alan Greenspan, had a simple message: the US is not an oasis of prosperity in an otherwise struggling world. Greenspans point is even closer to the mark today than it was back then.

2012-06-25 Let's Twist Again by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

It looks like the Fed is finally facing up to the facts. The U.S. economic recovery has stalled and policymakers have realized that they need to step in. Despite a favorable election outcome in Greece, a renewed commitment to austerity and staying in the euro zone, the Fed has lowered its outlook for growth and extended Operation Twist.

2012-04-20 Small Cap Outlook 1Q12 by 1492 Investment Team of 1492 Capital Management

While weve seen the markets advance nicely, we think the market could gain more than 25% this year as the U.S. economy continues to move ahead and the rest of the world is in stimulus mode. Most importantly, there are still plenty of bears calling for recession, despite an ongoing barrage of better economic statistics. No doubt the remainder of the year will give the stock market plenty to ponder like the U.S. Presidential election, ongoing European debt crisis fallout and concerns about Chinas economic growth. Read on to understand why were so bullish on the U.S. stock market.

2012-03-30 Stocks, Bonds, and the Efficacy of Global Dividends by Ehren Stanhope, CFA of O'Shaughnessey Asset management

First, we look at the prospects for the two assets classes that comprise a majority of investors portfolios: stocks and bonds. Second, we review one of the most tried-and-true investment strategies that has been a part of the investment lexicon since the beginning of the modern investment era: dividends. But we do so with a caveat global dividends. Finally, we review the results of two strategies back to 1977 to demonstrate the applicability of our approach. We think you will find the results both eye opening and compelling.

2012-03-07 The Labors of Hercules Were Never This Tough by Neil Dwane of Allianz Global Investors

Theres no shortage of insight on the ever-expanding debt drama in Europe. Despite the deluge of information, there are still a few key points to consider. Banks and hedge funds could file lawsuits against Greeces government. Protection against the ISDA declaring a default on Greeces debt could prove to be inadequate. This could mean that things may be worse than we imagine. Markets have rallied this year on positive sentiment that Greeces default has been contained. Are we being too complacent? Still, with solutions being drafted, now might be a good time to buy European equities.

2012-02-21 Good News Cant Keep a Lid on Investor Fear by Kristina Hooper of Allianz Global Investors

The outlook for the stock market keeps getting brighter, but investors are still letting fear cloud their judgment. In the United States, the jobs picture a rather bleak scenario less than a year ago has improved substantially. The euro-zone debt crisis has also improved. We havent seen any real contagion from Greece, as evidenced by sovereign debt yields. And despite prominent investors such as Warren Buffett and Jeremy Grantham favoring stocks over bonds, a lot more money flowed into bond funds in January. This disconnect reveals a continued tug-of-war between fear and fundamentals.

2012-01-20 Equity Investment Outlook by John Osterweis and Matt Berler of Osterweis Capital Management

We believe that 2011 was an aberration in terms of stock market correlations and that gradually stocks will once again perform based more on their individual results and outlooks and less on the markets en masse risk on, risk off vacillations. Despite our near-term caution, which reflects a very uncertain economic and political climate, we are increasingly convinced that equities are poised for solid longer-term returns. Over the past ten years, stocks generally underperformed bonds. This is highly unusual. Stocks are now reasonably priced and profits are expected to expand.

2012-01-17 Thinking About the Implications of Rising Euro-Exit Risks by Myles Bradshaw of PIMCO

Even if the euro survives this crisis intact, the market will price in uncertainty as the crisis evolves. Scenario planning is indispensable for investors. Politics may prevent the European Central Bank from buying government bonds, but it could provide funding support via a special government or banking intermediary. This balance sheet expansion could be a negative for the euro. Within the eurozone we believe investors should look at alternatives to the government sector, including agency, regional government and covered bonds.

2012-01-06 What Happened in 2011Whats up for 2012? by Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital

This all lends itself to a volatile, but nearly flat trend for stocks and bonds in 2012. Fundamentals dont yet support a run-up, but easy money may put a floor underneath assets over the short run. Unless the situation were to change, we believe aggressive dips in stock markets represent buying opportunities. We tend to think bonds will underperform equities in 2012, given their dramatic outperforming in 2011.

2011-12-22 Continued Austerity to Hamper EU Growth by Neil Dwane of Allianz Global Investors

The euro zone will continue to struggle as fiscal dieting and debt reduction are likely to mean slim chances of economic expansion, but strong consumption trends in emerging markets may temper their ill effects. The European Central Bank (ECB) is at the heart of market solutions to the European Union (EU) crisis but stands resolute against printing money to alleviate debt. Despite the ongoing crisis, there are many growing and profitable opportunities for European corporates especially in emerging markets.

2011-12-19 The Volcker RuleAn Exercise in Confusion by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

This past October, a group of four regulatory bodies jointly released draft proposals of the so-called Volcker Rule. Part of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation set to go into effect this coming July 2012, this rule would forbid banks any substantial interest in either hedge funds or private equity firms and also prohibit banks from doing any proprietary trading on their own account in securities of any kind. Apart from the legitimate concerns and arguments on both sides, the most threatening and dangerous aspect is the debilitating lack of clarity.

2011-12-16 Loose Monetary Policy Paves Way for Growth by Scott Migliori of Allianz Global Investors

Continued volatility in early 2012, but an increasingly accommodative monetary policy globally could jumpstart growthparticularly among export-driven companiesin the second half of the year. Energy and health care sectors stand out as likely outperformers.

2011-10-25 Time to Put Your Shades On by Pamela Rosenau of HighTower Advisors

The paradox of the stock market is that higher prices attract buyers, while lower prices attract sellers. This herd-like behavior is confirmed by peers and exaggerated even more now by social media outlets. The most important thing to acknowledge in these markets is to be tactical and buy on weakness. In our current yield starved environment, I have focused on growth and income (two such scarce resources these days) in both dividend paying large cap stocks and energy infrastructure MLPs.

2011-10-11 Market See-Saw Brings Us Back to April 2010 Double-Digit Third Quarter Losses Erase Previous Gains by Ron Surz (Article)

Stock markets around the world plummeted in the third quarter, with the US market losing 16% and foreign markets faring somewhat worse with 17% losses. This quarter's loss reverses the gains of the first quarter and brings year-to-date returns below water, with domestic markets losing 11% and foreign markets losing 13%.

2011-07-15 Sine Cera by Bill Mann of Motley Fool

I had a talk with a renowned short-seller who accused me of having too little imagination in considering the set of known facts about a potentially fraudulent company. In some ways hes right. In practice, if I find myself saying "hmm" Im just going to move on to the next idea. We do something I like to call "looking for ghosts," to try to find inconsistencies that even hint at things. Not that long ago a Chinese chicken producer came to pitch us on participating in its offer. The company had nice-looking financials, so nice that its gross margins were double those of Charoen Pokphand.

2011-07-12 Second Quarter Preserves First Quarter Market Gains: We're Still Above Water and Treading by Ron Surz (Article)

In his award-winning commentary, Ron Surz looks at how the US market performed and then how foreign markets fared. He concludes on a lighter note with a couple of videos that address key topics in the investment arena.

2011-06-16 On the Uses and Abuses of Discount Rates by Andrew Foster of Seafarer Capital

When investors search the world for opportunity, do they value a dollar of profit from Indonesia six times more than a dollar from South Korea? I doubt they do. Yet large and misleading discrepancies can arise when investors rely heavily on discount rates in valuation models to determine the relative attractiveness of foreign assets. Discount rates are useful when determining the intrinsic value of a single asset, but in my opinion, they should not be a primary determinant in the allocation between multiple assets.

2011-05-03 Gary Shilling - Five Things that can Derail the Recovery by Robert Huebscher (Article)

Die-hard deflationists - those who foresee a continued bull market in bonds - are so few in number these days they could all share an elevator, according to Gary Shilling. One is Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg, whose views are considered elsewhere in this issue. But the loudest such voice belongs to Shilling himself, who has advocated for a long position in Treasury bonds continuously since 1980, a stance that has always proved prescient so far.

2011-04-05 The Future of Investment Manager Due Diligence (and a Look Back at Q1 Performance) by Ron Surz (Article)

Despite the continuing global financial crisis, the uprisings in the Middle East and the Japanese disaster, global stock markets delivered positive results in the first quarter of 2011, as described in this capital market review. In the second part of the article, you'll discover what due diligence procedures need to change and why.

2011-03-29 Inflation versus Deflation: Two Experts Disagree by Robert Huebscher (Article)

An important question for all investors is whether low inflation rates will persist or whether the economy is heading toward much higher inflation. The answer to that question will dictate asset class allocations, portfolio construction and ultimately the rates of return investors should expect.

2011-03-14 The End of QE2 by Charles Lieberman (Article)

This week's meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is sure to focus on whether to terminate its quantitative easing program early and when it will be time for overnight interests to be returned to more normal levels. While economic growth appears to be much healthier, higher oil prices and credit risks in Europe pose significant risks to the growth outlook. Therefore, we expect no change to policy, although it is our judgment that the Fed should begin to alter its language subtly to remind investors that changes in policy will be coming.

2010-12-07 Apple, Google, NewsCorp and the Future of Content: Interview with Michael Whalen by Christopher Whalen of Institutional Risk Analyst

In this issue of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we speak to Michael Whalen, award winning composer and new media observer about the outlook for the business of creating and delivering content. Since graduating from Berklee College of Music, Michael has taught a business for music class than has saved thousands of young atists from making terrible mistakes with content and other contractual rights. Think Frank Zappa and Warner Brothers. And yes, Michael is IRA co-founder Chris Whalen's younger brother.

2010-12-03 Texas, Ireland and Ten Little Indians by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors

Mauldin contrasts the plights of Iceland and Ireland in dealing with excessive leverage. Iceland devalued its currency, while Ireland must accept a bailout package. Iceland's economy is recovering; Ireland's may take years. Mauldin compares the situation in Spain and Portugal to those two countries. The stronger EU countries must rescue the weak, just as Texas is being asked to rescue fiscally troubled states like California.

2010-11-23 Why Diversify? by Adam Jared Apt (Article)

Although diversification is commonly regarded as a good thing, there are nonetheless those who regard it as a guarantee of mediocrity. It isn't, but there are right ways and wrong ways to go about diversifying a portfolio. Let's explore how diversification works.

2010-10-05 A September to Remember by Ron Surz (Article)

In his quarterly market analysis, Ron Surz notes that September has historically been the worst performing month for US stock markets, losing 1% on average over the past 85 years, while the average return in the other 11 months was a positive 1.3%. Not so this September. Surz reviews global market performance and provides his thoughts on peer group analysis and target date funds.

2010-10-05 Do Past 10-Year Returns Forecast Future 10-Year Returns? by Bill Hester of Hussman Funds

The argument that above-average long-term returns typically follow periods of poor past long-term returns is not wrong, it's just incomplete.

2010-08-24 India to Open Equity Markets to Foreign Retail Investors by Team of American Century Investments

While opening up its equity market to foreign retail investors will likely benefit India and increase capital inflows in that country, there is also more growth potential for investors who are prepared to accept the risks and invest for the long term. Over the next five years, India and emerging market economies will be driven not only by export demand from the rest of the world, but by growth in domestic consumption, including health care, technology, infrastructure, and finance. This will create huge opportunities for investors and companies doing business in these sectors.

2010-08-20 Take Your Pick: Sinking US or Soaring BRIC by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital

If America is headed for depression, then US equity, real estate and even bond investments may become increasingly risky relative to the BRICs. Investors still holding US securities and bonds might wish to follow the example of the People’s Bank of China and begin harvesting their dollar gains. With the proceeds, investors should allocate to economies showing growth based on genuine demand and solid fundamentals.

2010-08-16 Small, Large, Both? by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Small capitalization equities, until recently, have done remarkably well, tempting some to conclude that these sorts of stocks have done their thing and that it is now time to migrate increasingly toward the large side of the capitalization range. A slight underperformance by small stocks since April may have reinforced this reasoning. It would be a mistake, however, to abandon small capitalization holdings altogether in favor of large cap issues. In six of the past 10 economic cycles, small caps continued to lead large caps in the second year of a recovery, and sometimes even longer.

2010-07-06 Stock Markets and a Sea of Change by Ron Surz (Article)

Ron Surz provides his award-winning market commentary, analyzing performance across global markets during the first half of this year. He also addresses several other topics, including the fiduciary standard, developments in target date funds, and distortions in style assignments created as a byproduct of the financial crisis.

2010-06-07 Decoupling by John Petrides (Article)

The investment community is fixated on the tangled fiscal and monetary web within the European Union and losing sight of the recovery underway in the U.S. economy. One might say the U.S. and Asian economies are decoupling from European markets. In 2007 and 2008, decoupling allowed the global economy, led by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, to grow without the U.S. Now it appears that the European economy has decoupled and is mired in its own recession apart from the rest of the world.

2010-04-19 Goldman SEC Litigation: The End of OTC?; Alan Boyce on the Duration of Fed Open Market Operations by Christopher Whalen of Institutional Risk Analyst

This piece features a comment from Alan Boyce, chief executive officer of Absalon, on the impending end of the Fed Purchasing Program. Boyce says that as FPP ends, there is the real potential for unintended consequences in domestic and foreign markets. If markets were to become unglued, the Fed may purchase more mortgages and Treasury debt. Foreign central bankers will likely snap and become sellers, however, if the Fed decides to monetize more debt. Markets would likely take it as a sign that the Fed is politically unable to exit the mortgage market, or quantitative easing.

2010-04-06 Insights and Foresights into 2010 by Ron Surz (Article)

Ron Surz provides his award-winning market recap and analysis for the first quarter of 2010. The first quarter of 2010 did not start well, with US stocks experiencing losses in excess of 3% in January, but then we recovered most of those losses in February, setting the stage for 6%+ returns in March. All of the first quarter return was earned in March.

2010-02-16 Emerging Economies Continue to Show Promise by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Despite recent financial turmoil in response to policy initiatives in Washington and fears surrounding the finances of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, markets are up since the beginning of 2009, and are likely to grow this year. Emerging markets have the best prospects for growth, but their success depends on the precarious recoveries in the United States, Europe and Japan.

2010-02-16 Emerging Economies Continue to Show Promise by Milton Ezrati of Lord Abbett

Despite recent financial turmoil in response to policy initiatives in Washington and fears surrounding the finances of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, markets are up since the beginning of 2009, and are likely to grow this year. Emerging markets have the best prospects for growth, but their success depends on the precarious recoveries in the United States, Europe and Japan.

2010-01-28 Q1 2010 Market Commentary by Monty Guild of Guild Investment Management

“We expect world markets to be volatile but trade sideways or rise slightly through early spring. After that time, we expect a correction in world markets. We believe that the stock market correction

2010-01-05 Perspectives on 2009 and Beyond by Ron Surz (Article)

We are again privileged to provide Ron Surz' award-winning market commentary. Surz examines global performance in Q4, 2009 and the prior decade.

2009-12-01 Allen Sinai: Jobless Recovery and the Failure of Current Economic Policies by Robert Huebscher (Article)

As the Democratic leadership in Congress has looked for ways to simultaneously create jobs and reduce the deficit, a key person they have turned to and continue to rely on is Allen Sinai. Sinai now fears the US is in the "mother of all jobless recoveries" and that the economic policies of the Obama administration are not working.

2009-10-06 So Far so Good: The Decrepit Decade Winds Down by Ron Surz (Article)

Ron Surz provides his award-winning market commentary, covering performance in the US and global markets, broken down by style, sector, and other dimensions.

2009-07-07 Riding the Stock Market Wave in the First Half of 2009 by Ron Surz (Article)

Ron Surz provides his award-winning market commentary, reviewing the first half stock market performance around the world. He looks at the past decade, to set expectations accordingly. Have markets become cheap enough yet? He concludes with a realistic and sobering look at our current debt problems - a cause for concern for both young and old.

2009-06-09 Jeff Gundlach: The Party is Over by Robert Huebscher (Article)

The easy money has been made in the credit markets, as investors have reaped strong year-to-date returns, topped by 17% in emerging market debt and 30% in high yield bonds. Now the markets are in a much riskier position, said Jeff Gundlach, Chief Investment Officer of the TCW Group, in his quarterly update to investors that he titled "It was Great While it Lasted."


Website by the Boston Web Company