More on Related Themes
2012-08-28 Intrade.com Presidential, House and Senate Odds by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
With the GOP convention kicking off tonight, below is an updated look at where the Intrade.com "prediction market" odds currently stand for the President, House and Senate.
2012-08-24 Russ Ks Guide to Economic Indicators (Infographic) by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog
Pundits like to throw around a lot of numbers when trying to predict the direction of the US economy. The most popular economic indicators, however, aren't necessarily the best. Russ K explains why the economic indicators you hear most often are overrated and identifies which indicators you should use instead.
2012-08-07 Obama Remains Strong on Intrade; GOP Strong in Congress by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
Four months from today, citizens across the country will hit the ballot boxes to cast their votes in this year's Presidential election. Over at prediction market website, Intrade.com, President Obama continues to hold a near 20-point lead over Mitt Romney in his re-election bid. Obama's odds of winning currently stand at 58.4%, while Romney's odds are below 40 at 39.7%.
2012-07-23 Bubbles without Markets by Robert Shiller of Project Syndicate
A speculative bubble is a social epidemic whose contagion is mediated by price movements. The speculative bubbles in the housing, equity, and commodity markets that preceded and accompanied the current global financial crisis are also its ultimate cause. But, before we conclude that we should rein in the markets, we need to consider the alternative.
2012-07-18 GOP VP Poll Results - Thumbs Up for Rubio, Thumbs Down for Pawlenty/Portman by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
Yesterday we ran two polls regarding Mitt Romney's VP pick to get a gauge on the topic from the investment community. In the first poll, we asked, "Who will Mitt Romney pick as his VP running mate?" As shown below, Marco Rubio got the highest percentage of votes at 28%, followed by Rob Portman at 18%, Tim Pawlenty at 15% and Condi Rice at 12%.Next we asked, "Who should Mitt Romney pick as his VP running mate if he wants to win?"
2012-07-11 Green Consumption: Its Not All Positive by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
There was a time when farmers markets, eco products, recycling, and renewable energy were squarely in the tree huggers domain. Then, somewhere along the line, green went mainstream, turning environmental awareness into a socially desirable trait and a mark of morality.
2012-06-25 The Rating Agencies Are Lost At Sea by Charles Lieberman of Advisors Capital Management
Moodys bank downgrade is such a breathtaking demonstration of incompetence that it undermines the entire rating agency concept. If the banks deserve downgrading now after domestic banks increased their capital base dramatically over the past few years, declines in loan defaults, and recovery in profits, one can only wonder why these very same banks were not rated junk a few years ago before these improvements occurred?
2012-06-12 Odds for Greece and the Health Care Law by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
Below is an updated look at Intrade.com contracts for two of the biggest news stories going on this month -- the Supreme Court's health care law decision and the euro crisis. The first chart below shows the Intrade.com odds for the individual mandate of the health care law to be ruled unconstitutional by the end of 2012. This is essentially a bet that the mandate gets overturned when the Supreme Court announces its decision on the case later this month.
2012-06-05 Featured Video from Natixis Global Asset Management by David Rolley (Article)
David Rolley, Global Fixed-Income Manager at Loomis, Sayles & Company, discusses these issues on Natixis Global Asset Management's Market Talk.
2012-06-05 The Father of Efficient Markets: Is Warren Buffett Smart or Lucky? (Video) by Dan Richards (Article)
Eugene Fama is generally regarded the father of modern finance. His research has expanded upon the capital asset pricing model to identify the value and small-capitalization contributions to risk. Dan Richards spoke with him on May 1, the day before his guest talk at the CFA Institute annual meeting. This is the video of the interview.
2012-06-01 Obama Odds to Win Decline, But Mitt Doesn't Rally by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
2012-05-08 Volatility: The "Godfather" Asset Class by American Century Investments (Article)
Michael Corleone's famous line in Godfather II, "Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer," can be applied to volatility. Often thought of as the investing enemy, volatility can play an important role in the financial professional's arsenal as a portfolio diversifier. In this article, American Century Investments discusses the opportunities and challenges associated with incorporating volatility as a hedge in multi-asset portfolios.
2012-01-24 There's No Such Thing As Free Yield by Steve Laipply (Article)
In this low rate environment, investors are searching for fixed income products to add to their portfolios that can generate higher yield. But in this video Steve Laipply, a member of BlackRock's Model-Based Fixed Income Portfolio Management Group, cautions that there's no such thing as free yield. Often, products that generate higher returns also involve greater risks.
2012-01-24 The ETF Landscape: A Look Back at 2011's ETF Flows by Jennifer Grancio (Article)
In 2011, $150 billion flowed into exchange traded products globally, with one of every three new dollars being allocated to fixed income funds. In this video, Jennifer Grancio, head of Global Business Development for iShares, explains the factors that drove this trend and how investors are using ETPs to actively manage their fixed income portfolios.
2012-01-17 Video: A Portfolio (or Two) for a Binary World by Russ Koesterich, CFA (Article)
Will the global economy continue to muddle along, stuck in this slow growth environment? Or is it headed for a crisis? How is it possible to position an investment portfolio for either scenario? Russ Koesterich, iShares Global Chief Investment Strategist, explains in this video why in these binary times, it might make sense for investors to consider having two portfolios.
2011-12-19 The volatility of volatility - Part 1 by Dr. Andrew Lo (Article)
Dr. Andrew Lo of AlphaSimplex provides insight on what is driving volatility in the marketplace and active risk management measures for mitigating it.
2011-12-19 Survey underscores investors’ concerns about risk by John Hailer (Article)
Natixis Global Asset Management survey shows that investors fearful of losing money need better tools to deal with market volatility.
2011-12-19 Boring is good when it comes to risk by Three portfolio managers weigh in (Article)
Investment experts from Gateway Investment Advisers, Loomis, Sayles & Company, and AEW Capital Management offer their views on managing risk.
2011-08-09 Letters to the Editor by Various (Article)
A reader responds to Robert Huebscher's article, The Winning Endgame, which appeared last week, and another reader responds to Scott Smith's guest contribution, Hitting a Moving Target: Matching Portfolio Risk to Client Expectations, which also appeared last week.
2011-05-17 Letter to the Editor by Various (Article)
A reader responds to our article, Howard Marks on the Human Side of Investing, which appeared last week.
2011-02-08 The Downside to Venture Investing - Video by Dan Richards (Article)
In this interview, Harvard Business School professor Josh Lerner discusses the dangers of venture capital investing and the basis behind Facebook's valuation. This is a video of the interview.
2010-12-06 Turkeys, Cheerleaders and Buzz Lightyear\'s Butt by Mariko Gordon (Article)
Looking at things from all possible directions is critically important. Just like watching a parade at street level or from above, investment opportunities should also be admired from many angles.
2010-07-08 Lebron James to New York? by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
There's been lots of movement on the Intrade contracts for where LeBron James will end up, on the eve of his announcement. As Bespoke shows in charts provided, the Cleveland contract has dropped significantly while the New York Knicks contract has spiked this evening. News that he'll be making the announcement from Greenwich, Connecticut instead of somewhere in Ohio seems to be what shifted the odds.
2010-05-27 World Markets: Revised Update by Doug Short of Doug Short
Doug Short provides provides a an overlay chart of world markets since March 9, 2009. The chart, he writes, illustrates the synchronous behavior of international stock indices. The question going forward is whether the correction to date is a long-term low or an interim low with more downside to come. Short also provides a chart of the Shanghai Composite Index since 2000, which includes a classic market bubble.
2010-05-04 Investors Face a New Health Care Landscape: An Interview with Michael Liss by American Century Investments (Article)
After a year of intense partisan combat and fiery debates on Capitol Hill, President Obama signed a massive, nearly $1 trillion health care bill on March 23 that reshapes an industry that accounts for one-sixth of the U.S. economy. No one at American Century Investments® has followed the health care reform bill more closely than Michael Liss, vice president and portfolio manager for American Century Value, the company's flagship value portfolio, and he offers his thoughts on legislation. We thank American Century Investments for their sponsorship.
2010-04-21 Republicans Now Favored to Take Back the House? by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
Intrade.com has contracts on whether the Republicans or Democrats will control the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2010 midterm elections. While the Democrats currently hold a large majority in the House, the odds for them retaining that majority after 2010 have been declining over the past year or so. As of today, the Republicans are now favored to win a majority in the House after the 2010 elections. The current odds based on Intrade's contract prices are 50.1 percent for a Republican majority and 45 percent for a Democratic majority.
2010-04-13 Yield Opportunities Still Exist in Bonds by American Century Investments (Article)
The current economic and market environment presents intriguing challenges for income-seeking, risk-averse investors. One effect of the Federal Reserve's policy of holding short-term interest rates at historically low levels is to force cautious, safety-oriented investors out of cash-equivalent investments. In this article, David MacEwen, chief investment officer for fixed income, discusses a number of opportunities that may provide additional yield for clients within a risk-managed, fixed-income framework. We thank American Century Investments for their sponsorship.
2010-04-06 Municipal Bond Advantages Remain by American Century Investments (Article)
You and your clients often sift through competing, complicated information in the course of making investment decisions. That's certainly true in the municipal bond market today. Joseph Gotelli, municipal bond portfolio manager at American Century Investments®, urges investors to consider municipals' enduring features. Conflicting news and views on the municipal market should not obscure the fact that many municipal bonds remain high-quality investments with compelling tax advantages. We thank American Century for their sponsorship.
2010-04-05 Creating God in our Own Image by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
Past studies have shown that when we reason about other people, we form an opinion of their views based on two sources: egocentric info - what we ourselves believe - and outside clues - what the other person has said and done, and what others have said about them. In one recent study, researchers found that there was a significant correlation between participants' views on moral issues and their estimates of God's views on the same topics. These results may suggest that God may be a blank slate onto which we project anything we choose.
2010-03-24 competitive yoga by tom brakke of the research puzzle
Investing, like Yoga, is not a competitive sport. Human nature, however, compels us to measure our investment performance relative to external, often irrelevant standards. The relative performance structure of institutional money management is the largest such example, causing investors large and small to make bad decisions in the guise of good ones. The biggest mistake a retiree with $5 million can make is to judge his investment performance relative to the S&P 500. Investing should be an intensely personal activity. We should learn from others without measuring ourselves by them.
2010-03-15 The Power of Defaults in How We Eat by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
At a 2009 conference held by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, event planners decided to set the vegetarian lunch as the default meal option. Eighty percent of guests opted for the vegetarian option, compared to just 20 percent in 2007.
2010-03-01 Squash and Short-term Thinking by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
Exhaustion or stress can cause people to focus only on the short term and avoid the long term, and this can make them more susceptible to mistakes. Squash is a game of strategy. Players must plan several shots ahead in order to score. When squash players are out of shape, however, they tend to focus only on making the next shot.
2010-02-23 The $2 Million Charity Challenge to Active Investors by David B. Loeper, CIMA, CIMC (Article)
Dave Loeper of Wealthcare Capital Management responds to last week's $100,000 challenge to passive managers by Roger Schreiner. Loeper says Schreiner "stacked the deck" to make his challenge un-winnable, and instead offers his own challenge to active management advocates.
2010-02-16 How to Squander $170 Billion by Robert Huebscher (Article)
Some of the managers supposed to be among the sharpest have cost their clients $170 billion dollars over the last two decades. These are "plan sponsors" who handle pension funds, endowments, and foundations, and Scott Stewart, a former money manager who now teaches finance at Boston University, has documented their value destruction in a recently published study.
2010-02-16 2010 Outlook: More Growth on the Horizon for Emerging Markets by Patricia Ribeiro (Article)
Patricia Ribeiro, Vice President and Portfolio Manager for the American Century® Emerging Markets Fund, believes the emerging markets asset class offers short- and long-term growth prospects and diversification benefits at attractive market valuations. In a recent interview, Ms. Ribeiro shared her views on the current state of emerging markets, what lies ahead in 2010, and how her investment team is selecting equities for the fund. We thank American Century for their sponsorship.
2010-02-16 The $100,000 Challenge to Passive Managers by Roger J. Schreiner (Article)
In this guest contribution, money manager Roger Schreiner challenges passive management advocates. He will wager $100,000 that, through active management, can outperform any passive buy-and-hold portfolio net of fees.
2009-12-15 The End is (Not) Near by Mariko Gordon (Article)
More than just a year, "2012" has quickly become synonymous in pop culture with "the end of the world." Mariko Gordon of Daruma Asset Management takes a look at our collective fascination with this and other arbitrary dates, particularly those that relate to stock performance!
2009-12-08 Investment Viewpoints Equity Income: Performance and Wealth Preservation by American Century Investments (Article)
"A manager who limited losses last year went a huge way toward helping investors accumulate wealth over time and meet their long-term goals," Morningstar's Don Phillips told the Wall Street Journal in early November for an article titled, "The Cruel Math of Big Losses." "It's the kind of victory that often goes unnoticed," Phillips said. Read how American Century® Equity Income provided its 80,000 shareholders with such a victory last year. We thank them for their sponsorship.
