More on Related Themes
2012-12-10 13 for '13 by Richard Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors
Each December we publish a list of investment themes that we feel are critical to the coming year. We continue to believe that US equities are in the midst of a major bull market that could ultimately rival 1982's bull market. It is hard to be bearish when one considers the following.
2012-10-12 Long/Short Investing: Bon Apptit by Geoffrey Johnson of PIMCO
Long/short equity is a distinct investment approach that seeks to reduce downside risk while still capturing much of the equity markets upside potential. By removing the long-only constraint, long/short managers have an expanded opportunity set with the potential to generate returns and mitigate risk from both long and short investment ideas. Long/short equity strategies have a lower long-term volatility and risk profile than the market as a whole and have captured a good percentage of price movement in up markets and a smaller percentage in down markets.
2012-08-25 Alibis for Sale by Dan Ariely of Dan Ariely Blog
Ever since The Honest Truth about Dishonesty was published, people send me emails about strange things they come across related to dishonesty, like this one offering alibis and excuses for absences as well as assistance with a variety of sensitive issues. Here's my response.
2012-06-04 Alternative Mutual Funds See Continued Growth by Chris Maxey and Ryan Davis of Fortigent
During an especially difficult week, global equity markets were deep in the red, as the S&P 500 Index lost 3.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.3%. There was no shortage of disappointing data during the course of the past week, ranging from weakness in the ISM manufacturing survey to an underwhelming May labor market report. It was such a bad week, in fact, that Bespoke Investment Group found that 18 of the 21 economic indicators released in the U.S. fell short of expectations.
2012-04-25 Avoiding Equity Market Exposure by Team of American Century Investments
The year 2012 finds the search still on for income and capital appreciation with acceptably low volatility. Many investors remain leery of stocks and are also interested in opportunities that possess low correlation to equity markets. In addition, the low interest rate environment presents difficulties for those trying to achieve total return goals by relying on fixed income investments. Given these issues, some may wish to learn more about the techniques utilized by many equity market-neutral (EMN) strategies.
2012-03-10 Regret by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
Imagine that you have a flight at 8:00 in the morning. Which would be worse, arriving at the gate, breathless, at 8:02, just after theyve closed the door, or at 10:00, thanks to a couple unplanned delays in your morning. Obviously, the first scenario would cause far more misery, but why? Either way youre stuck at the airport until the next flight, eating the same bad, overpriced food, missing whatever you were supposed to do after your planned arrival, whether thats meetings or a stroll on the beach.
2012-03-09 Long-Short Funds Lead Greenwich Indices in February by Clint Binkley of Greenwich Alternative Investments
Hedge funds turned in another month of gains across all major strategies, notes Clint Binkley, Senior Vice President. Results from Long-Short Equity funds show that managers are increasing net exposures as they become more confident about economic conditions. Although some managers continue to expect a market correction, most believe it will be mild as institutional investors are still waiting for opportunities to add to their positions.
2012-02-23 Muni Outlook Q&A with Portfolio Manager Alan Kruss by Team of American Century Investments
Municipal bonds (munis) are back in the bond market spotlight, but for different reasons than a year ago (when widespread defaults were projected, and muni funds experienced heavy outflows). Muni performance has rebounded strongly since then, which has triggered follow-up questions about the muni market outlook. We posed them to Alan Kruss, Vice President and Municipal Portfolio Manager at American Century Investments.
2012-02-16 Weekly Market Update: Introduction to Alternative Investments by Team of American Century Investments
Alternative investments (or alts as they are commonly known) have exploded in popularity in recent years. What began as specialty investment strategies utilized by only the most sophisticated institutional investorssuch as pension plans and university endowmentsare now readily available to retail investors through a number of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. Here we try to explain alts appeal in broad terms, discussing how these strategies are used and what role alts may play in an individual investors portfolio.
2012-02-10 Indices Show Hedge Funds Off to Strong Start in January by Clint Binkley of Greenwich Alternative Investments
"US equities rallied significantly to begin 2012 and Long-Short managers are the best performers thus far. Hedge funds focused on Market Neutral strategies were also surprisingly strong as both Arbitrage and Event-Driven managers posted their best results in months. Despite investors being drawn into risk-on sectors of the market, most funds remain cautious with the economic situation in Europe still unresolved, notes Clint Binkley, Senior Vice President.
2012-01-31 Do Unresolved 2011 Economic Ailments Portend a Similar 2012? by Team of Managers Investment Group
Now updated through 4Q. This compendium provides an historical perspective of economic data compared to today's results, and provides comments on any developing trends. We also include a synopsis of financial markets results. The OTOTM Chart Book is designed with easy-to-read graphics to tell a story and help you visualize the changes taking place in today's economy.
2012-01-28 Men, Women, and Pain by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
If youve been to the doctors office recently with any kind of complaint, its likely you were ask to rate the pain you were experiencing on a scale from 0 to 10 (being the worst pain possible). Well, a group of researchers from the Stanford University School of Medicine recently analyzed the self-reported pain measurements from 11,000 medical records from 2007-2010 and discovered something surprising: women report greater levels of pain than men for the same injuries and ailments.
2012-01-11 Greenwich Global Hedge Fund Index Slips 15 Points in December by Clint Binkley of Greenwich Alternative Investments
US equities ended 2011 essentially unchanged but endured significant volatility throughout the year. Hedge funds focused on market neutral strategies were above average performers for the month and the year as they were able to withstand the market uncertainty. Looking forward, we expect Directional and Long-Short strategies to have better performance as the global economy continues to stabilize
2011-12-09 Greenwich Hedge Fund Indices Post Modest Losses in November by Clint Binkley of Greenwich Alternative Investments
Hedge funds as measured by the Greenwich Global Hedge Fund Index posted losses in November, losing ground during the latter half of the month on weak fundamentals in European markets. The GGHFI shed 1.05% compared to global equity returns in the S&P 500 Total Return (-0.22%), MSCI World Equity (-2.69%), and FTSE 100 (-0.70%) equity indices. European headlines continue to dictate the mood of global markets and cause increased volatility in equities. Hedge fund managers have decreased leverage and exposure to mitigate market risk but are still exposed to broader moves
2011-11-09 Greenwich Global Index Hedge Funds Bounce Back in October by Clint Binkley of Greenwich Alternative Investments
Hedge funds as measured by the GGHFI posted strong results in October, benefitting from a rebound in equity prices during the month. The GGHFI gained 2.27% compared to global equity returns in the S&P 500 Total Return +10.93%, MSCI World Equity +10.26%, and FTSE 100 +8.10% equity indices. 67% of constituent funds in the GGHFI ended the month with gains. Concerns over Europe began to lift in October and hedge funds were able to benefit from the rise in equity prices. Long-Short managers performed well given their cautious stance entering the month.
2011-09-30 Is a More Integrated Europe the Answer? by Andrew Goldberg and David M. Lebovitz of J.P. Morgan Funds
Germany has voted for an expanded EFSF to stabilize the European Sovereign debt crisis, an important step towards reducing near-term concerns. However, broader problems still loom. In recent weeks, mounting skepticism has exacerbated fears of recession in developed economies, sending risk assets plunging and volatility soaring. In the following update on the situation in Europe, well consider: The underlying issues plaguing Europe, A summary of steps taken to address them thus far, A look at possible next steps and solutions and a few thoughts on investing in such difficult times.
2011-09-09 Hedge Funds Minimize Losses in August by Team of Greenwich Alternative Investments
Hedge funds turned in an excellent month of relative performance when compared to equity market benchmarks, notes Clint Binkley, Senior Vice President. Macro, Futures and Short Biased managers produced positive returns in spite of severe market declines. We continue to expect hedge funds to outperform long only strategies in this volatile market environment. Hedge Fund Strategy Highlights: Directional Trading funds are the best performing group of funds in August, gaining 0.3%. Market Neutral funds provide protection from market swings, declining only 2.9% on average for the month.
2011-09-06 Five Strategies for a Sideways Market by Kane Cotton, CFA and Jonathan Scheid, CFA (Article)
If this slow growth environment coupled with asset price volatility continues for (to steal a quote from Fed Chairman Bernanke) 'an extended period,' what additional portfolio strategies might aid the overall risk/return profile of investor portfolios? More specifically, how do you manage investments in a sideways market?
2011-07-30 Visualizing GDP: The Consumer Is Key... and at the Razor's Edge by Doug Short of Doug Short
Over this time frame, we see that the personal consumption expenditures component has shown the most consistent correlation with real GDP itself. When PCE has been positive, GDP has been positive, and vice versa. As the Q2 GDP component analysis clearly illustrates, personal consumption expenditures, at 0.07 of the real GDP 1.29, is at the razor's edge of positive territory.
2011-06-10 Preferences Leading to Choices? by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
Sometimes (perhaps even very often) we don’t make choices based on our internal preferences. Instead we have a gut feeling about what we want, and we go through a process of mental gymnastics and rationalization in order to manipulate our choices so that at the end we can get what we really want but at the same time keep the appearance (to ourselves and to others) that we are acting according to our preferences.
2011-06-07 Letters to the Editor - Our Four-Year Anniversary by Various (Article)
A reader responds to our article, Our Four-Year Anniversary, which appeared last week.
2011-05-31 Letter to the Editor On Absolute Return, Market Neutral and Long-Short Funds by Todd Huster (Article)
A reader responds to a market commentary, What is conservative about Absolute Return, Market Neutral, or Long/Short Mutual Funds?, by Kendall Anderson of Anderson Griggs, which appeared on May 23, 2011.
2011-05-24 What is conservative about Absolute Return, Market Neutral or Long/Short Mutual Funds? by Kendall J. Anderson of Anderson Griggs
The machine of Wall Street has convinced many individuals who believe they are prudent, conservative, investors that a mutual fund whose name or objective includes the terms Absolute Return, Market Neutral, Long/Short or hedged, will never lose your money. An individual whose fear of losing again from common stocks just can’t bear sitting on cash and earning a nickel of interest every three months 1k. The desire to increase returns is just too great. Before you fall for the hype there are a few things you should know. The most important item you should remember is that there is no guarantee.
2011-05-16 Public Policy Looking Better by Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein of First Trust Advisors
We think there are five (5) reasons to be bullish about the US economy. First, monetary policy is loose and likely to remain so. Second, the financial panic is over, thanks to the end of mark-to-market accounting rules. Third, technological advances continue to boost productivity growth. Fourth, our free market economy is incredibly resilient, more so than the pessimists believe. And fifth, the policy environment is improving. Despite what Bernanke might say (that quantitative easing lifted stock prices), we think the return in the S&P 500 has to do with a positive shift in government policy.
2011-05-03 Q1 2011 Portfolio Commentary by Jay Compson of Absolute Investment Advisors
In a nutshell, the Fed-induced "risk trade" is once again at a crossroads with commodity/oil prices and the real economy. You know the endgame is near when the Bernanke/Yellen team dismiss the "bad stuff," much like they did with sub-prime. Investors should be prepared for a possible reversal of some of the above trends as they relate to the US dollar, European Union difficulties, and the potential ending of the credit boom across Asia. Given the high sensitivities and correlations across most global asset classes, diversification can be incredibly difficult.
2011-04-08 Hedge Funds Show Mixed Results Among Strategies in March by Clint Binkley of Greenwich Alternative Investments
Most hedge funds advanced in March, but losses in Directional funds dragged down the group. The Greenwich Global Hedge Fund Index shed 10 basis points compared to global returns in the S&P 500 Total Return +0.04%, MSCI World Equity -1.24%, and Barclays Aggregate Bond +0.06% indices. 58% of constituent funds in the GGHFI ended the month with gains. “The whipsaw action in the market during March led many trend following funds to suffer losses latter in the month,” notes the Sr VP “The outlook for managers is positive as increased volatility tends to work in favor of most hedge fund strategies.”
2011-02-05 A Lesson About (De)motivating Employees by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
The CEO of a software company cancels a project that was developed by a group of highly motivated employees, who believed their work would have been the best new idea in the computer world. The group was demoralized and the key people ultimately quit. How could the CEO have better handled the situation?
2011-01-15 Reminding Kids by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
It is often hard to remember to take medication, especially when you hardly feel the severity of the illness or the relief of the medication. On the other hand, no one forgets to take heartburn medication – you’ll probably sprint for it as soon as heartburn begins to set in.
2010-12-11 The ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Still Negative But Continuing to Improve by Doug Short of Doug Short
On Friday, December 10 the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) registered negative growth for the 27th consecutive week, coming in at -1.5. However, the rate of contraction has been lessening for the past 19 weeks. The latest weekly number is based on data through December 3.
2010-10-08 Dem Turnaround Yet to Happen by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
The Intrade odds for the Republican Party to win the House of Representatives have been well above 50 percent for some time now (currently at 75 percent), but the Democratic Party has been favored to retain the Senate throughout the Intrade contract's entire history. Today, however, that contract fell below 50 percent for the first time, and the odds are currently at 47.5 percent for the Democratic Party to keep a Senate majority.
2010-09-29 The U.S. Oil Glut by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
Although U.S. oil inventories declined by 475,000 barrels in the latest week, the decline was less than the forecasted decline of 700,000 barrels. As shown in charts provided, oil inventories in the U.S. are currently right near their highest levels of the year relative to the historical average. Since oil stockpiles peaked earlier in the year, inventories have declined by 2 percent. In an average year, however, oil stockpiles are down 6 percent from their seasonal high by this time.
2010-09-13 And a Partridge in a 'Pair' Tree by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James Equity Research
We've gone from double-dip to double-drip. While the economy is slowing, a slide back into recession is unlikely. Chances of deflation have also deflated. Meanwhile, last week the Labor Day Indicator sounded the 'all clear' signal when the S&P 500 closed higher over the four days following the holiday. Unless the S&P violates its 50-day moving average of 1085, followed by a break of 1060, the path of least resistance for stocks remains up. Still, investors continue to shun stocks, leaving the equity risk premium exceptionally large.
2010-09-10 Sex and Smart Phones by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
Popular online dating site OkCupid recently released some numbers users reported regarding their sex lives. One interesting correlation was between smart phone usage and number of sexual partners. Female iPhone users (at the age of 30) report having had 12.3 sexual partners, more than twice as many as women Android users. Male smart phone users show a similar jump: from 6.0 sexual partners on Android to 10 on the iPhone. A casual observer might infer a correlation between iPhone usage and sexual activity, but Ariely suggests another way to interpret the data.
2010-08-19 Dow Dividend Yield Versus 10-Year Treasury Yield by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
There has been a lot of talk this week about how 'the great bond bubble' is about to crash and that equities look attractive compared to them. One data point that commentators have been citing is that the Dow's dividend yield is now greater than the 10-year Treasury bond yield. We've heard some say that this is the first time this has happened in decades, but in actuality, the Dow's yield got much higher than the 10-year bond yield as recently as late 2008 and early 2009. Bespoke presents a chart Dow yields minus 10-year Treasury bond yields from 1920 to the present.
2010-08-17 Letters to the Editor: Harold Evensky, et. al. by Various (Article)
Our letters to the Editor include three responses to articles in last week's issue from Harold Evensky of Florida-based Evensky & Katz.
2010-08-10 When Active Management Matters by Kenneth R. Solow, CFP and Michael E. Kitces, MSFS, MTAX, CFP (Article)
Financial planners have eagerly awaited any research that could finally, definitively prove - or disprove - the pesky notion that active management is effective. Though no one has yet risen to that challenge, past academic studies have been improperly interpreted to show that portfolio policy, or asset allocation affects portfolio returns far more than active management. As Ken Solow and Michael Kitces write in this guest contribution, the most recent study to tackle the active management debate, by Yale professor Roger Ibbotson, shares two weaknesses with previous research.
2010-08-02 How We View People with Medical Labels by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
In a recent online study, Dan Ariely asked participants to view a potentially funny video involving an individual who would seem to have 'issues.' Participants who were told that the girl had suffered from OCD since childhood thought she seemed more likeable, intelligent, and creative than those who were not told. But participants who were told of the girl's illness also thought that she seemed like a bigger loner and more antisocial. What this suggests is that giving individuals a disorder-label causes others viewing them to place the blame on the disorder and not on the person.
2010-07-27 Robert Shiller: A Cautious Outlook for Stocks (Video) by Dan Richards (Article)
Dan Richards recently spoke with Robert Shiller, the Yale economist who foresaw the financial crisis and created the Case-Shiller housing index. Shiller discusses the potential for a double-dip recession, valuations in the US equity market, and the outlook for a housing recovery. This is the video of the interview.
2010-07-26 Who Cheats More? by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
Dan Ariely provides a video of a short talk on cheating he gave on July 7 in San Francisco. While most people think that citizens of other countries cheat more than Americans do, Ariely's research has found that people from Israel, Italy, China and the U.S. all cheat about the same amount. Ariely has also found that bankers cheat twice as often as politicians do.
2010-07-24 The Artificial Economic Recovery by Tony and Rob Boeckh of Boeckh Investment Letter
Economic recovery in the U.S. and elsewhere has slowed rapidly and forecasts are being downgraded accordingly. The massive stimulus packages stopped a self-feeding downward spiral, but they have given us only an artificial recovery. Government tax revenues will be disappointing and expenditures will remain elevated. A fragile economy, however, should not push investors away entirely from risk assets. High levels of risk and uncertainty argue for continued focus on wealth preservation and sound diversification.
2010-07-20 Jeremy Siegel on Why Stocks are Undervalued (Video) by Dan Richards (Article)
The Wharton School's Jeremy Siegel remains an outspoken proponent of stocks for the long run, as he demonstrates in this interview with Dan Richards. Siegel explains why equity investors should not be deterred by sour economic forecasts or by signals of apparent overvaluation based on Shiller P/E ratios. This is the video of our interview.
2010-07-13 pick up the pieces by tom brakke of the research puzzle
Tom Brakke recently started a brand new service called research puzzle pix. You can think of it as a weekday digest of items that might trigger your curiosity or tickle your (investment) fancy. This commentary contains a link to one of his first efforts for the new service, a graphic called the 'yield curve accordion.' The graph shows the migration of various points on the yield curve of U.S. Treasury bonds. As the graph illustrates, each economic stumble is met with low short rates, a steepening yield curve, and a return to risk taking.
2010-07-08 Lebron James to New York? by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
There's been lots of movement on the Intrade contracts for where LeBron James will end up, on the eve of his announcement. As Bespoke shows in charts provided, the Cleveland contract has dropped significantly while the New York Knicks contract has spiked this evening. News that he'll be making the announcement from Greenwich, Connecticut instead of somewhere in Ohio seems to be what shifted the odds.
2010-06-08 The Shape of Market Bubbles by Doug Short of Doug Short
Doug Short provides an overlay chart of four major bubbles across market history to see the variety of shapes a bubble can take. The overlay includes the 2007 Shanghai Composite bubble, the 2000 Nasdaq technology bubble, the 1929 Dow bubble and the 1989 Nikkei bubble. As the chart illustrates, bubbles usually go unrecognized by the majority of market participants until their late stages. The left side of the bubble is usually more gradual than the collapse, although the incredible rise of the Shanghai market is a notable exception.
2010-05-27 World Markets: Revised Update by Doug Short of Doug Short
Doug Short provides provides a an overlay chart of world markets since March 9, 2009. The chart, he writes, illustrates the synchronous behavior of international stock indices. The question going forward is whether the correction to date is a long-term low or an interim low with more downside to come. Short also provides a chart of the Shanghai Composite Index since 2000, which includes a classic market bubble.
2010-05-26 Emerging Market Vs. G7 Debt Levels by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
Bespoke provides tables comparing debt levels in G7 and emerging market countries. The average level of public debt to GDP among G7 countries is 94 percent. Two countries, Japan and Italy, have levels of debt that are in excess of 100 percent of GDP. Compared to the other six countries on the list, the U.S. debt level of 52.9 percent seems downright thrifty. Meanwhile, the average level of debt in emerging market countries is just 37.4 percent. If concerns over debt are the major issue behind the correction, emerging market countries should thus rebound the strongest in any recovery.
2010-05-06 First Quarter 2010 Market Review and Outlook by Ronald W. Roge of R.W. Roge
Recent signs of economic strength are encouraging, but mostly stem from temporary factors like stimulus spending and inventory rebuilding. Based on current valuations, it is likely that stock returns will trend below average in the next five years. Even under more optimistic scenarios, annualized equity returns barely reach double digits. This goes for stocks of both domestic and foreign developed markets. Roge's investment view therefore remains cautious, balanced and flexible.
2010-05-05 High Yield Outperforms by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
The average stock in the S&P 500 is now down 4.26 percent since the index peaked on April 23rd. But at least based on dividends, the high-yield stocks have outperformed their low or no-yield brethren by quite a wide margin during the recent pullback. When breaking up the S&P 500 into deciles based on dividend yield, the deciles of stocks with the highest yields are barely down, while stocks with low or no yields are underperforming. Investors typically flock to safer names during market declines, and it seems to be no different this time around.
2010-05-04 Investors Face a New Health Care Landscape: An Interview with Michael Liss by American Century Investments (Article)
After a year of intense partisan combat and fiery debates on Capitol Hill, President Obama signed a massive, nearly $1 trillion health care bill on March 23 that reshapes an industry that accounts for one-sixth of the U.S. economy. No one at American Century Investments® has followed the health care reform bill more closely than Michael Liss, vice president and portfolio manager for American Century Value, the company's flagship value portfolio, and he offers his thoughts on legislation. We thank American Century Investments for their sponsorship.
2010-04-29 Q110 Portfolio Commentary by Jay Compson of Absolute Investment Advisors
The potential for systemic risk continues to be very high, and Absolute Investment Advisors believes markets are only pricing in the optimistic outcomes and not the bad ones. This is the opposite of a year ago. The past few market cycles have been highly compressed as investors have appeared to recognize risks only after they occur. As such, the discounting mechanism of the markets has also become compressed as all assets have gone through stages of an escalator up and then an elevator back down (with very few floors to get off).
2010-04-13 Another Month, Another Huge Deficit by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
With total revenues of $153 billion and spending of nearly $219 billion, the federal government spent 43 percent more than it took in this month for its record 18th straight monthly deficit. Believe it or not, this month's $65 billion shortfall was the fourth-lowest over the last 12 months. When all is said and done, the total cost of the Troubled Asset Relief Program bailout is likely to reach $89 billion. When the federal government runs $65 billion in the red during its normal course of business, $89 billion to avert the collapse of the entire financial system doesn't seem so bad.
2010-04-07 When the Facts Change by Niels C. Jensen of Absolute Return Partners
An echo bubble is upon us. Echo bubbles are the children of primary asset bubbles, and emerge when monetary authorities respond to the bursting of a primary asset bubble by slashing policy rates. Extraordinarily low interest rates are currently encouraging another bout of excessive risk taking. If policymakers raised rates now, however, they would almost certainly kill the fledgling recovery. The pressure is therefore on monetary authorities to keep rates low and feed the new bubble. Investors should steer toward assets that benefit from high volatility.
2010-04-06 Municipal Bond Advantages Remain by American Century Investments (Article)
You and your clients often sift through competing, complicated information in the course of making investment decisions. That's certainly true in the municipal bond market today. Joseph Gotelli, municipal bond portfolio manager at American Century Investments®, urges investors to consider municipals' enduring features. Conflicting news and views on the municipal market should not obscure the fact that many municipal bonds remain high-quality investments with compelling tax advantages. We thank American Century for their sponsorship.
2010-04-05 Creating God in our Own Image by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
Past studies have shown that when we reason about other people, we form an opinion of their views based on two sources: egocentric info - what we ourselves believe - and outside clues - what the other person has said and done, and what others have said about them. In one recent study, researchers found that there was a significant correlation between participants' views on moral issues and their estimates of God's views on the same topics. These results may suggest that God may be a blank slate onto which we project anything we choose.
2010-03-24 competitive yoga by tom brakke of the research puzzle
Investing, like Yoga, is not a competitive sport. Human nature, however, compels us to measure our investment performance relative to external, often irrelevant standards. The relative performance structure of institutional money management is the largest such example, causing investors large and small to make bad decisions in the guise of good ones. The biggest mistake a retiree with $5 million can make is to judge his investment performance relative to the S&P 500. Investing should be an intensely personal activity. We should learn from others without measuring ourselves by them.
2010-03-23 Fixed Income Short Duration Bonds by American Century Investments (Article)
The fixed-income team at American Century Investments doesn't foresee sudden surges in inflation or interest rates in the immediate future, but they are on the horizon. "Near-term inflation concerns remain low due to lingering weak economic fundamentals," says David MacEwen, chief investment officer for fixed income. "However, looking long-term, the unprecedented levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus used to fight the recession will eventually result in higher inflation." (This is sponsored content.)
2010-03-15 The Power of Defaults in How We Eat by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
At a 2009 conference held by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, event planners decided to set the vegetarian lunch as the default meal option. Eighty percent of guests opted for the vegetarian option, compared to just 20 percent in 2007.
2010-03-05 Intrade Odds for Obamacare to Become Law by 6/30/2010 by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
The odds for Obamacare to become law by June 30, 2010 jumped to 60 percent on Intrade a few days ago after the president pushed for the Senate to use reconciliation to pass reform, a procedure that requires only 51 votes and cannot be filibustered. Before then, odds ranged from 30 to 35 percent.
2010-03-01 Squash and Short-term Thinking by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
Exhaustion or stress can cause people to focus only on the short term and avoid the long term, and this can make them more susceptible to mistakes. Squash is a game of strategy. Players must plan several shots ahead in order to score. When squash players are out of shape, however, they tend to focus only on making the next shot.
2010-02-18 Taxes Paid by the Highest-Paid Americans by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
A recent IRS report provides ammunition for both sides in the debate over whether the ultra-rich should pay higher taxes. The 400 top U.S. earners accounted for 2.1 percent of all taxes paid in 2007, up from 1.2 percent in 1997. They paid an average tax rate, however, of 16.6 percent, down from 24.2 percent ten years earlier. Their average income in 2007 was $137.9 million.
2010-02-10 My Take on the NY Times Pay Wall by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
Dan Ariely says the New York Times may be able to succeed with its new online pay wall if it offers subscribers a new experience that was not available before. Online Times readers will be guided by “anchoring,” which suggests that they will not be willing to pay more for the same things, but may be willing to pay more for different things.
2010-02-02 Stuck in One Dimension by Tom Brakke, CFA (Article)
Tom Brakke writes about the lessons in the demise of Tiger Woods for those seeking "star" investment managers. Relying on funds run by a single individual can be perilous.
2010-02-01 Spending Money by Dan Ariely of Predictably Irrational
Ariely asks his readers how they would spend $20,000 if their goal was “to get the most joy and happiness.” You can view the responses.
2010-01-29 Q409 Portfolio Commentary & Updated Fact Sheet by Jay Compson of Absolute Investment Advisors
“Beyond just our economic, fiscal, and underemployment problems, we are likely to see a reversal of three decades of tailwinds that will turn into large headwinds: deleveraging, higher taxes, re-regu
2010-01-23 Bernanke Confirmation Odds by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
The Intrade odds for Ben Bernanke to be confirmed by the Senate for a second term have dropped from about 95% down to 80% today. This is a pretty big drop, but the money is still betting that he'l
2010-01-20 Intrade Contracts For Health Care and House Ownership by Team of Bespoke Investment Group
After Scott Brown's unlikely win last night for the open MA Senate seat, we checked Intrade to see which way the odds have moved for various political scenarios. After the special election, Intrad
2009-12-15 The End is (Not) Near by Mariko Gordon (Article)
More than just a year, "2012" has quickly become synonymous in pop culture with "the end of the world." Mariko Gordon of Daruma Asset Management takes a look at our collective fascination with this and other arbitrary dates, particularly those that relate to stock performance!
2009-10-20 Asset Allocation Perspective from American Century Investments by Scott Wittman, CFA (Article)
Scott Wittman,Senior Vice President, Asset Allocation at American Century Investments reflects on the one-year anniversary of the near-meltdown by our financial system and provides perspective on what kind of recovery may be coming. We thank American Century Investments for their sponsorship.
