Odds for the 2012 Elections, Health Care Repeal, and an NFL Lockout
Bespoke Investment Group
February 4, 2011
We haven't done a post highlighting Intrade odds since before the November elections, so below we take a look at what some of the more notable contracts have done lately.
The current Intrade odds for the Democratic Party to maintain the Presidency in 2012 stand at 62.5%. This number hasn't changed much at all over the past few months, even after the GOP picked up so many seats in the 2010 elections. The majority of traders are still banking on Obama winning a second term.
While the Democratic Party still holds a majority of seats in the Senate, the odds for which party will control the Senate after the 2012 elections heavily favor the GOP. As shown below, the contract for Republicans to control the Senate after 2012 last traded at 69 (or 69% odds).
The 2012 House of Representatives contracts have taken an interesting turn in recent weeks. After the GOP took control of the House in 2010, the odds for the GOP to control the House following the 2012 elections unsurprisingly jumped up to nearly 80%. But since then the odds have drifted lower, and just this week, the odds moved down to 50/50 for which party will control the House after the next set of elections. The party clearly didn't last long for Republicans.
Intrade also has contracts for whether or not the new Health Care law will be ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. As shown below, odds are at 12% for the Supreme Court to rule the individual mandate unconstitutional by October 31st, 2011. The last trade puts the odds for the law to be declared unconstitutional by the end of 2012 at 19%. And while it has only traded 5 contracts, the last trade put the odds at 50% that the individual mandate will be declared unconstitutional by the end of 2013.
Now on to the important stuff. For those wondering if there will be NFL football next year, current Intrade odds are 41% that there will be an NFL lockout before opening day of the 2011 season. Click here for more specifics on this contract.
(c) Bespoke Investment Group