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Obama Odds to Win Decline, But Mitt Doesn't Rally
Bespoke Investment Group

June 1, 2012


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Below is a chart showing the intrade.com odds for Barack Obama to win re-election in November.  As shown, the President had a rough May, as his odds fell from a high just above 60% down to 56.6%.  But interestingly, Mitt Romney didn't see an equivalent increase in his odds to win.  Instead, it was Ron Paul and Hillary Clinton that saw pickups in their odds to become the next President of the United States.  

While their chances are still extremely low, Intrade bettors increased the odds for Ron Paul to win from 1% up to 3%, while Mrs. Clinton saw an increase from under 0.5% up to 2.1%.  The pickups for both Mr. Paul and Mrs. Clinton have been on pretty strong volume as well.  Pretty weird, right?

 

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