Odds for Greece and the Health Care Law
Bespoke Investment Group
June 12, 2012
Below is an updated look at Intrade.com contracts for two of the biggest news stories going on this month -- the Supreme Court's health care law decision and the euro crisis. The first chart below shows the Intrade.com odds for the individual mandate of the health care law to be ruled unconstitutional by the end of 2012. This is essentially a bet that the mandate gets overturned when the Supreme Court announces its decision on the case later this month. As shown, the money has recently pushed up the odds for the mandate to be overturned to 65%. This weekend, the odds had moved up to 72%, but they've since pulled back a bit.
The second Intrade.com contract highlighted is for any country to drop the Euro currency by the end of 2012. This one is more interesting for what it hasn't done recently than what it has done. While news reports and rumors have run wild over the past month or so that Greece may exit the Euro, the odds on the Intrade contract have basically remained right at 40% over this time period. Are we simply in the eye of the storm? At any rate, actual money that is changing hands still has the odds at less than 50% that Greece will exit the Euro by the end of this year.
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