The Biggest Loser
Euro Pacific Capital
By Peter Schiff
February 1, 2013
In
Switzerland, it's not just the clocks that are cuckoo. Over the past
four years Swiss politicians and central bankers have gone on an
unprecedented buying spree of foreign exchange reserves. In 2012, their
cache swelled to as much as $420 billion worth of various currencies,
primarily the euro. This figure is a seven-fold increase since 2008 and
equates to 70% of the country's annual GDP. The sum translates to
$200,000 per family of four, enough to keep the Swiss in clocks,
chocolates, and fondue for many years to come. The Swiss leadership will
claim the money has been "invested" with an eye to the future, but what
they've done is impoverished themselves in the present. Although such a
decision seems perverse, it makes perfect sense when seen through the
lens of today's presiding economic thinking.
For
the past few generations Switzerland has enjoyed some of the strongest
economic fundamentals in the world. The country boasts a high savings
rate, low taxes, strong exports, low debt-to-GDP, balanced government
budgets, and prior to a few years ago one of the most responsible
monetary policies in the world. These attributes made the Swiss franc
one of the world's "safe haven" currencies. But in today's global
economy, no good deed goes unpunished.
Central
bankers around the world, particularly in Washington, Frankfurt and
Tokyo, have been engaged in a massive and coordinated campaign of
currency debasement to combat the recession. But for years the Swiss
refused to join in the printing parade. As a result, investors around
the world wisely decided to park their savings in the reliable Swiss
franc. From December of 2008 to August 2011 the franc appreciated an
astounding 59% against the U.S. dollar and approximately 30% against the
Japanese yen. More importantly, the franc gained 42% against the euro.
As the Eurozone completely surrounds Switzerland, its trade with those
countries represents the vast majority of its international
transactions.
During
this massive run up in its currency, the Swiss economy continued to
prosper. Wages and purchasing power increased and GDP grew consistently
faster than other countries in Western Europe. Despite generally
positive export statistics, some Swiss exporters noticed that at times
the strong franc put them at a disadvantage against foreign competitors.
In addition, the strengthening currency helped keep a lid on consumer
prices, giving Switzerland a consistently low inflation rate with
occasional bouts of actual deflation. Despite the fact that Switzerland
was an island of economic health amidst a sea of problems, the reigning
economic orthodoxy convinced Swiss leaders that their strong currency
was a burden rather than a blessing. More pointedly, the rise in the
franc was seen as a repudiation of the expansionary policies occurring
in other countries. And so the Swiss government decided to join the
currency killing party.
In
early August 2011, the Swiss National Bank took a series of steps to
reverse the fortunes of the franc. In the simplest terms, they sold
francs and bought foreign currencies, most notably the euro. The
announcement included a promise to buy unlimited quantities of foreign
exchange to maintain a floor of 1.20 francs per euro. In so doing, the
Swiss essentially outsourced their monetary policy to the Eurozone. Any
moves taken by the European Central Bank would need to be matched by the
Swiss. Ironically, it was fear of this outcome that kept the Swiss from
adopting the euro in the first place. Despite the former bias toward
independence, the Swiss have de facto adopted the euro anyway. Since
that time, the franc has fallen 16% against the dollar, Swiss foreign
exchange reserves have skyrocketed, and investors who bought francs as a
means to escape debasement have been betrayed.
Productive
nations generate excess goods and services that can be sold abroad and
their growth and stability attract investment funds from abroad. These
conditions will tend to increase demand for the nation's currency,
thereby pushing up its price. A strong currency keeps capital and raw
materials costs low, enabling more productive workers to earn higher
real wages. But according to most economists, a strong currency will
bring down an economy because it destroys international competitiveness
and can even lead to lower prices (deflation) which they see as economic
quicksand. These fears have ignited a "global currency war" in which
countries are expending huge amounts of national savings in order to
ensure that their currencies stay cheap. In today's economic logic we
must fail in order to succeed.
But
it is very easy to have a weak currency. All that is needed is an
unlimited willingness to print. A strong currency requires real fiscal
discipline and actual production. Yet, like the weight loss TV show,
economists believe that the winner of a currency war is the biggest
loser. You win not by killing your competitors, but by killing yourself!
It's like a student convincing his parents that an "F" is a better
grade than an "A." And if a straight "F" report card results in parental
accolades rather than anger, the students will lack any incentive to
improve performance. Similarly, as nations like Switzerland strive to
reduce their own grades, the failing nations have a reduced incentive to
change their study habits. Without outside support, nations with
collapsing currencies would see huge increases in consumer prices. The
resulting fall in living stands would force productive reform.
I
take the minority position that just as it is better to be rich than
poor, a strong currency is better than a weak one. Although much more
credentialed economists may try to muddle the arguments, the truth may
be seen when a particular position is taken to its logical extreme. If a
weaker currency is preferable to a stronger one, then logic would
dictate that a currency of no value will be preferable to one with an
infinite value. But how would economies with these drastically different
currencies operate?
It
is true that the country with the zero value currency will tend to see
full employment and strong exports. The relative low cost of labor will
mean that the locals could be easily employed in even the most marginal
activity. But since holders of other currencies will be able to outbid
the domestic population for all of their production, everything produced
will be exported. Imports will be zero as the local population would be
unable to afford anything produced in countries with more valuable
currencies. As a result, actual consumption would be extremely low. In
essence this economy would be analogous to impoverished, subsistence
level economies such as Bolivia, Zimbabwe, and Haiti.
In
contrast, a country with an infinitely valuable currency would see the
best of all possible worlds. Even the smallest amount of money would
allow citizens to buy huge amounts of goods from abroad. An evening's
babysitting money would deliver more purchasing power than months of
hard labor in poorer countries. The strong currency would mean that
consumption would soar even while hours worked fell. Savings would
increase in value, and people would have more ability to travel and
pursue leisure activities. In essence, we are describing a rich economy.
Placed
in such a context, it's easy to see the preferred option. Those who
believe in the benefits of weak currencies do not specify when a falling
currency becomes a bad thing. Clearly there must be a tipping point
where lost purchasing power overcomes supposed gains in growth. Yet they
are silent on that point. My position is that a rising currency is
always good. No magic tipping point needs to be identified.
The
problem is that economists now believe that the goal of an economy is
to provide employment, not goods and services. They see a job as an end
in and of itself, rather than as a means for people to get the things
they really want. But if we can get all that we want without having to
work, who needs to bother? A strong currency takes us closer to this
goal. It is a testament to how far the "science" of economics has fallen
that this goal has been utterly forgotten.
But
this junk science is killing real growth. As long as this "black is
white" ideology remains in place, the biggest printers will continue to
be the biggest actual losers.
Peter Schiff is the CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, best-selling author and host of syndicated Peter Schiff Show.
(c) Euro Pacific Capital

