The Case for Emerging Europe
U.S. Global Investors
By Frank Holmes
September 1, 2012
If
history had turned out differently, the USSR would’ve taken home the
most Olympic medals this year, as the total awarded to athletes from the
area was 163, according to a blog on Foreign Policy’s website. As we
all know, the Wall came down, the Soviet Union collapsed, and now Russia
has to be content with its third-place position of 82 medals. Athletes
from the United States were awarded the most medals (104), followed by
participants from China, who took home 88.
In
another contest, the U.S. stock market outperformed many developed and
emerging equity markets for the year as of the end of August. Despite
the negativity surrounding corporate earnings, lower economic growth and
ongoing political uncertainty, the S&P 500 ETF rallied, climbing 13
percent through August 30.
By comparison, the iShares S&P Europe 350 ETF only rose 6.9 percent.
What seems to be overlooked by investors is the fact that stocks in Emerging Europe have also seen
noteworthy results. As you can see in the chart below, the Eastern
European Fund (EUROX) rose nearly 10 percent over the same time frame.
Turkey was a significant contributor to those results, with stocks in
the country climbing almost 40 percent; Russian stocks only advanced
about 4 percent.
With
the underperformance of the iShares S&P Europe 350 ETF, many
investors have interpreted this as a contrarian sign to hunt for
bargains in developed Europe. However, if you believe that Europe will
see better days ahead, greater opportunity may lie to the east.
Here are three reasons to look at Emerging Europe stocks today:
1. Better GDP Growth Potential
The
companies in the Eastern European area are located in countries set to
grow faster than the U.S. and countries in Europe. Russia and Turkey are
projected to have a GDP of about 4 percent this year, while Poland’s
GDP growth is expected to be 2 to 3 percent.
2. Stocks are Undervalued
Along
with benefiting from higher GDP growth, many of these stocks are
historically undervalued. BCA Research looked at certain value metrics
of several emerging market countries, including the trailing and forward
price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratios and compared these
figures to the historical average going back to the early 1990s. Poland
has a reading of about 1.2, which means that today’s price-to-earnings
and price-to-book ratios are 1.2 standard deviations below the
historical mean. Conversely, Mexico’s reading of -1.5 indicates that
stocks in this country are historically overvalued.
Among emerging countries, Poland, Russia and Turkey are the better values, says BCA.
BCA
also looked at the emerging markets where growth was expected to
improve over the next five years compared to the previous two years.
Among “the most favorably-placed markets” for valuation and economic
growth were Russia and Poland.
3. Attractive Dividend Yields
Many
Eastern European stocks pay attractive dividends, allowing investors to
benefit from income and potential appreciation. As of June 30, 2012,
the stocks in the EUROX portfolio had an average dividend yield of more
than 5 percent.
Dividend
income may not be the only benefit: According to research from ING
Bank, there appears to be a healthy dividend effect on stock
outperformance in emerging Europe.
The
chart below shows the cumulative average outperformance 40 days before
and 40 days after the ex-date among dividend-paying stocks in Europe,
Middle East and Africa (EMEA) countries. The outperformance has
historically started about 10 days before the ex-date and continues
throughout the next 40 days. The ex-date is the day on or after which a
security is traded without a previously declared dividend or
distribution.
While
this effect is seen throughout the EMEA countries, “Turkish stocks
appear to be most attractive dividend effect plays with outperformance
of 5 percent on average,” according to ING.
In
today’s low yielding environment, dividends have been particularly
attractive to investors. Martin Barnes, chief economist at BCA Research,
writes to subscribers that he believes that in today’s uncertain
environment, investors can still “build an equity portfolio of global
companies with strong balance sheets, powerful brands and paying
reliable and decent dividends. Not the most exciting investment strategy
perhaps, but one that should pay off in the long-run.”
Price Reversal Indicates Attractive Entry Point?
As
you can see below, over the past month, EUROX has moved above its
50-day moving average. This indicates to us that there is growing
strength in the Eastern European area and an attractive entry point for
investors.
The
Eastern European Fund isn’t the only fund signaling a potential price
reversal—all equity funds at U.S. Global Investors are above their
50-day moving average. Click here to see the charts.
Total Annualized Returns as of 6/30/12
|
|||||
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
Gross |
Eastern European Fund
|
-24.68%
|
7.09%
|
-10.06%
|
9.74%
|
1.98%
|
SPDR S&P 500 ETF
|
5.26%
|
16.23%
|
0.16%
|
5.23%
|
0.10%
|
iShares S&P Europe 350 ETF
|
-13.00%
|
-2.31%
|
-10.65%
|
-1.45%
|
0.60%
|
Expense
ratios as stated in the most recent prospectus. Performance data quoted
above is historical. Past performance is no guarantee of future
results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other
earnings. Current performance may be higher or lower than the
performance data quoted. The principal value and investment return of an
investment will fluctuate so that your shares, when redeemed, may be
worth more or less than their original cost. Performance does not
include the effect of any direct fees described in the fund’s prospectus
(e.g., short-term trading fees of 2.00%) which, if applicable, would
lower your total returns. Performance quoted for periods of one year or
less is cumulative and not annualized. Obtain performance data current
to the most recent month-end at www.usfunds.com or 1-800-US-FUNDS.
Dividend yields are as of 6/30/2012. These figures do not represent the funds’ yields, which may be materially different from the average yields of the stocks held in the funds.
All opinions expressed and data provided are
subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be
appropriate to every investor.
(c) U.S. Global Investors

