After the Greek Vote, Now What?
By Russ Koesterich
June 19, 2012
The relief rally Monday following Sunday’s Greek election was short lived.
To be sure, the outcome of Sunday’s election is near-term good news for investors. A government led by the pro-bailout New Democracy is likely to follow more of the austerity program and to try, at least for now, to keep Greece in the euro.
That said, there are two main reasons why markets aren’t continuing to celebrate the Greek vote:
1.) Most importantly, worries about Spanish banks and Spain are taking center stage again. Spain’s debt yields are in the worrisome 7% range, the level that led to bailouts for Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Market attention is now focused on how the European Union will address Spain’s problems at upcoming meetings.
2.) Greece still faces formidable economic obstacles. Even with the New Democracy win, there’s likely to be some back sliding on the March agreement between Greece and other European countries. In addition, further defaults by Greece and an eventual Grexit are still significant long-term risks.
So what does this mean for investors? Looking forward, investors should continue to watch for three developments:
1.) Further Greek banking system outflows, which would signal a worsening crisis.
2.) More clarity on the rescue plan for Spain and on how Spain plans to recapitalize its banking system. The Spanish banking system is arguably a bigger threat to Europe than a Grexit.
3.) More signs that Germany is softening its position toward eurobonds. Any development in this direction would signal a growing eurozone consensus toward how to resolve the crisis, a positive for markets.
I believe that a worsening eurozone crisis can still be avoided if European politicians get more aggressive in addressing their region’s problems. However, as there’s little likelihood of an imminent solution to the eurozone crisis, the region is likely to continue to be a source of uncertainty and market volatility in the near term.
As such, while I do like some countries in more economically stable northern Europe such as Germany, Norway and the Netherlands, I continue to advocate underweighting Italy and Spain, which look cheap for a reason.
In addition, I continue to believe investors should consider a defensive portfolio positioning through high-quality, dividend-paying funds; defensive sectors such as global telecommunications; global mega capitalization (mega cap) stocks; and US and international minimum volatility funds.
Source: Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal
In addition to the normal risks associated with investing, international investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations. Emerging markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors as well as increased volatility and lower trading volume. There is no guarantee that the dividend funds will pay dividends. Minimum Volatility Funds may experience more than minimum volatility as there is no guarantee that the underlying index’s strategy of seeking to lower volatility will be successful.
The author is long IXP, HDV
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