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10 for 2010

RGE Monitor

Nouriel Roubini

December 30, 2009



Greetings from Roubini Global Economics!

This week, as the countdown to the New Year begins, we present 10 themes to watch in 2010.

Rising Fiscal Pressures
Stimulus Spending Adds to Public Debt Risks
Will the Surging U.S. Debt Hurt Future Economic Growth?
Sovereign Risk in the Eurozone: Are More Downgrades to Come?
Shaky Baltic Governments: Sharp Budget Cuts Boost Political Risk

Global Monetary Policy
How Will Global Central Banks Remove Accommodation?
The Exit From Global Monetary Easing: Disorderly?

Health of Global Financial Markets
How Healthy are European Banks?: Expected Writedowns Increase
U.S Bank Lending Continues to Fall Amid Permanently Tighter Lending Standards and Reawakening Demand
Regional Banks' Exposure to Commercial Real Estate Loans: More Downgrades and Failures to Come

Recovery From Housing Busts
U.S. Home Prices: Are Recent Gains Sustainable?
Could Canada Face Its Own Subprime Crisis?
Is Exchange Consolidation a Sign that Dubai's Role as a Financial Hub Is Being Diminished?

Regulatory Reform
Is Appetite for Regulatory Reforms Waning?

Capital Flows to Emerging and Frontier Markets
Will Asian Policymakers Change Their Approach to Capital Inflows?
Will Global Central Banks Keep Up Their pace of Reserve Accumulation?
Will Frontier Markets Have More Access to Capital in 2010?

Energy Supply Issues
Are We Insulated From Energy Supply Shocks?
Should Europe Brace for Another Natural Gas Crisis in 2010?
Will the Stalemate at Copenhagen Stall Alternatives?
Will An Increase in Hydrocarbon Prices Choke Off Any Recovery?

The U.S. Dollar
Has the U.S. Dollar Replaced the Yen as the Top Carry Trade Funding Currency or Could the Yen Carry Trade resume?
How Strong Is Central Bank Interest in Gold?

Global Overcapacity
Will Chinese Policies Be Inflationary or Deflationary for the Global Economy?
The Global Auto Industry Post Cash for Clunkers
The Recovery of Global Trade Flows
Will a Jobless Recovery Stifle Growth?

Security Threats
Will Domestic Protest Shift Responses to Iran's Nuclear Program?
Will North Korea Return to the Six-Party Talks?
How Much Should We Be Worried about Cybersecurity Threats?

 

(c) RGE Monitor

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