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Weekly Market Review Notes

February 13th, 2013

by Team

of Tuttle Tactical Management

After a decent selloff earlier in the month the market has continued to move up, but in very small increments. Most people seem convinced that we are due for another selloff, which seems to be tempering upside enthusiasm. On the other hand, there also doesn't seem to be any enthusiasm to sell.

Equity Markets

Our momentum indicators are still extremely bullish on the stock market. Our positive reading on stocks does not mean that the market is guaranteed to rise from here. There are still many risks on the horizon (Poor corporate earnings, problems in Europe, slowing economy, partisan bickering in Washington, etc) that could cause a selloff. However, our research suggests that when our momentum indicators are bullish the rewards of being invested outweigh the risks.

In the US we continue to have equal positions in Mid Cap and Small Cap stocks. Globally, we continue to favor broad based International Developed Stocks. Our shorter term counter-trend indicators are now slightly overbought.

Equity Matrix

Time Frame

Market Condition

TTM Positioning

Short Term

Slightly Overbought

50% Invested- Small Caps and Dividend Paying Stocks

Intermediate Term

Uptrend

Fully Invested- Small Cap & Mid Cap US Stock

Fixed Income Markets

Our momentum indicators show all areas of the bond market are weakening. High yield bonds are still the only area we see with any momentum as they can tend to trade more like stocks than bonds at times.

We continue to hold our counter trend position in long term Treasuries. We understand that over the intermediate and long term Treasuries are probably the worst bet you can make, but over the short term they are looking oversold and could provide some protection if we do have any sort of pull back in stocks.

Fixed Income Matrix

Time Frame

Market Condition

TTM Positioning

Short Term

Oversold

100% Invested in Treasury Bonds

Intermediate Term

Most markets in a downtrend

1/4 Invested in High Yield Bonds

Top Holdings

1. Cash

2. Small Cap US Stocks

3. Dividend Paying US Stocks

4. Mid Cap US Stocks

401k Advice

Below is our recommended allocation for 401k plans held outside of TWM:

Risk Tolerance*

Asset Type

Asset Class

Conservative

Moderate

Aggressive

Stock

S&P 500

20%

33.3%

Stock

Mid Cap Stock**

20%

33.3%

Stock

Small Cap Stock**

20%

33.3%

Fixed Income

High Yield Bond***

33%

13%

Cash

Cash

67%

27%

100%

100%

100%

* This should be based on the amount of risk/return you are looking for on this

block of money.

**If you do not have Mid Cap and/or Small Cap funds available that part of the

allocation can go into the S&P 500.

***If you do not have multiple bond funds then fixed income allocation can go into an

investment grade bond fund and/or multi-sector bond fund.

Tuttle Tactical Management, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this letter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Tuttle Tactical Management, LLC. It is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation nor does it constitute advice, investment or otherwise. To the extent that a reader has questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional adviser of his/her choosing. A copy of our written disclosure statement regarding our advisory services and fees is available upon request. Our comments are an expression of opinion. While we believe our statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of our own credible sources. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

Certified Financial Planner® Board of Standards, Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, Certified Financial Planner® and federally registered CFP® in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete the CFP® Board's initial and ongoing certification requirements.

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