World Recession Update - April 2013
We have all the numbers in for quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Q4-2012 from around the world. Since our last report in February "World plunges into recession", the percentage of countries with negative q-on-q GDP growth (1 and 2 consecutive quarters) have improved somewhat as more countries came into the sample and GDP's revised upwards. But we are still at worrying global recessionary levels (the blue and black dotted lines.) There is no doubt we are in the depths of a second global recession since the 2008 Great Recession, but amazingly the U.S seems to have skirted it (so far.
An inspection of individual countries & trading bloc's gives one pause for some thought. Europe (25% of world GDP) and the G7 bloc (54% of GDP) are in "mild recessions" (only 1 quarter negative growth) whilst all of the "traditional recession" (at least 2 quarters negative growth) countries are isolated to Europe and make up only 9% of world GDP. Whilst the countries that are in "Expansion" make up 74.8% of world GDP, the GDP-weighted bloc shows we have tipped into "mild recession" in Q4-2012. The "non-trivial" economies that are of concern at the moment are France (4% of world GDP) , Germany (5.4%), Italy (3.2%), Spain (2.2%), UK (3.9%) and the U.S (25%) that appears on the brink.
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Dwaine van Vuuren is CEO of RecessionALERT.com, a provider of investment research.