Note from dshort: Shortly after posting my update on this morning's Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Dwaine van Vuuren sent me a link to his latest RecessionAlert.com US Coincident SuperIndex update, which appeared yesterday. Dwaine's analysis and the CFNAI are clearly singing in close harmony.

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The US Coincident SuperIndex, which estimates U.S economic current growth, is within a whisker of returning to the growth rate normally averaged by the economy after 33 months into an expansion, as shown by the chart on the left. However, cumulative growth since the start of the expansion still remains sub-par (right chart) due to 22 months of sub-par growth. The recent 5 months of growth, coupled with almost reaching the par growth level are encouraging, but the sub-par cumulative expansion still leaves the US economy highly vulnerable to external shocks.

And here is a closeup view of the CFNAI since 2007.

 

 

Link to Dwaine's original RecessionAlert commentary here.

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Dwaine van Vuuren is CEO of PowerStocks Investment Research, a South African-based provider of investment research. If you would like to receive the next 4 weeks SuperIndex Recession Reports for free, just email us at research@powerstocks.co.za with FREE SUPERINDEX in the subject line.

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