How Long to the Next Recession? iM's Weekly Update

March 13th, 2014

by Anton Vrba and Georg Vrba

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The BCI stands at 167.8 up from last week's downward revised 167.8. The BCIg, the smoothed annualized growth of BCI, increased to 15.8 is also up from last week's downward revised 15.1. This upward trend is mainly due to the continued reduction of the Insured Unemployed as reported by the DOL. This week's BCI shows no recessionary trends.

Figure 1 plots BCIp, BCI, BCIg and the S&P500 together with the thresholds (red lines) that need to be crossed to be able to call a recession.

The off-peak indicator BCIp at 100.0 and at this level the BCIw graphic with the tracks to recession is no longer applicable.

The BCI, BCIp and BCIw are described in article 1, article 2 and article 3 respectively. Historic values of BCI, BCIg and BCIp can be downloaded from the author's website.

The off-peak indicator BCIp at 100.0 and at this level the BCIw graphic with the tracks to recession is no longer applicable.



Anton Vrba and Georg Vrba
iM imarketsignals.com

Anton Vrba is an electrical engineer. He pursued a career in R&D, manufacturing and construction project management. He developed the iMarketSignals' proprietary Business Cycle Index (BCI) and the authors' website. His other interests are mathematics and physics. He is a lateral thinker and has many ideas that challenge the established and accepted explanations.

Georg Vrba is a professional engineer who has been a consulting engineer for many years. In his opinion, mathematical models provide better guidance to market direction than financial "experts." He has developed financial models for the stock market, the bond market, yield curve, gold, silver and recession prediction, all published in Advisor Perspectives. The models are updated weekly at http://imarketsignals.com/.

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