The Four Bad Bears: Final Update
Note from dshort: This series has been replaced by my Four Totally Bad Bears series.
During the Great Financial Crisis, I updated this chart series on a daily basis. I retired it over a year ago but have posted occasional updates on request. Here is my final update of the series ... which is not to say I'm discontinuing coverage of the topic.
Henceforth I will periodically update a new overlay series of these four bad bears, but the new series will include nominal and real total returns in addition to the price-only overlays.
I'll post the new version tomorrow.
Since inflation is a favorite topic on this website, I've also updated a set of charts to facilitate a comparison of the nominal and real declines. See also my logarithmic scale view of the "Four Bad Bears" comparison.
For charts of S&P 500 bear market and recoveries since 1950, see this series.
For a better sense of how these cycles figure into a larger historical context, here's a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets, adjusted for inflation, in the S&P Composite since 1871.
For a bit of international flavor, here's a chart series that includes the so-called L-shaped "recovery" of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.
These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.