World Markets Weekend Review:
The Rout Continues

By Doug Short
May 20, 2012

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For the second week in a row, all eight indexes on my world watch list posted significant declines, with an average loss of 3.81%. The FTSE 100, which comprises over 80% of the London Stock Exchange, was the worst performer, losing 5.52%. But Hong Kong's Hang Seng fared little better, down 5.07%. For that matter, the DAXK (DAX ex dividends) was down nearly 5% at 4.91% and the S&P 500 closed the week with an unstylish 4.30% haircut.

Six of the eight markets are now in bear territory -- the traditional designation for a 20% decline from an interim high. The FTSE 100 remains above bear range but has slipped into a "correction" (a decline of 10%). The S&P 500 has escaped both designations, but at 8.73% off its interim high, the risk of stigma is rising.

As for YTD performance, here is a table showing the 2012 peak percentage gains and current YTD gains for the eight indexes. The gap between the highs and current level continues to widen across the board. Over the past week the FTSE 100 has joined France's CAC 40 in the YTD red zone.

A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks

The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. I've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.

The chart below illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500, CAC 40 and BSE SENSEX hit their lows on March 9th, the Nikkei 225 on March 10th, the DAX on March 6th, the FTSE on March 3rd, the Shanghai Composite on November 4, 2008, and the Hang Seng even earlier on October 27, 2008. However, by aligning on the same day and measuring the percent change, we get a better sense of the relative performance than if we align the lows.

A Longer Look Back

Here is the same chart starting from the turn of 21st century. The relative over-performance of the emerging markets (Shanghai, Mumbai SENSEX, Hang Seng) is readily apparent.

Check back next weekend for a new update.


Note from dshort: At the suggestion of Joerg Willig, a finance professional in Germany, I replaced the DAX index, which includes dividends, with the price-only DAXK, which is consistent with the other indexes.

 

 

 

 

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