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February 21, 2012 - Vol 6 Issue 8
Dear Reader,
The 7th Annual MIT Sloan Investment Management Conference will be held Friday, March 9th, 2012 at The Charles Hotel. This year's conference on "Fundamental and Quantitative Strategies for Turbulent Markets" will feature keynote addresses from Donald Sussman, Ron O'Hanley, and Professors Roberto Rigobon and Alberto Cavallo. Industry experts will lead panel discussions on emerging markets, the crisis in Europe, high frequency trading, low volatility strategies and other topics. Please visit here to register and find more information.
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Woody Brock on Solving America's Fiscal Problems
By Robert Huebscher
Dr. Horace 'Woody' Brock is the founder Strategic Economic Decisions, an economic research and consulting service. In this interview, he discusses his recently published book, American Gridlock, and how America can grow its economy through 'good' deficit spending.
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David Rosenberg: "Searching for Certainty in a Sea of Uncertainty"
By Katie Southwick
David Rosenberg is known for his bearish outlook, and he has not yet seen anything in recent economic news that persuades him to change his tune. Contrary to prevailing "bullish complacency" and the widespread belief that central banking systems "have the answers to the ongoing global debt deleveraging cycle," in the United States Rosenberg sees monumental deficits, flat growth, an underlying trend of deflation, and current fiscal policies that will limit future flexibility. In other words, trouble remains on the horizon.
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Gundlach: The Two Questions that Matter Most
By Robert Huebscher
Two questions stand out amid the complexity of the current economic and market environment, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, both of which relate to critical elements of fiscal and monetary policy and should guide portfolio construction for investors.
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The Conflict between Tactical Asset Allocation and Behavioral Finance
By Christopher J. Sidoni, CFA, CFP
How's this for irony? Certain investor behavior creates the conditions for a tactical asset allocation strategy to succeed - but the same behavior simultaneously Increases the likelihood that clients will not follow the strategy. Recent research by Ken Solow, Michael Kitces and Sauro Locatelli identified a promising approach to tactical portfolio strategy, but our firm's experience indicates clients will be reluctant to follow this approach - particularly when the expected payoff is highest.
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A Simple Email to Save a Client
By Dan Richards
A recent conversation got me thinking. Losing a client is a painful experience -even more so when you realize that something as simple as an email could have avoided that outcome.
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Evaluating Popular Recession Indicators By Georg Vrba, P.E.
Recessions are notoriously difficult to forecast. That, of course, hasn't stopped many high-profile analysts from predicting recessions in 2010 and 2011 - incorrectly, at least thus far. Given the wealth of often contradictory economic data that exists today on which to base such forecasts, this should come as little surprise. What's more surprising, however, is that they have based their predictions on models that were ill conceived and insufficiently tested.
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Highlights from Market Commentaries
Danger: Caution Ahead
I know many of you would like more actionable ideas but principal protection is uppermost in my mind. Patience is required now. Many investors underestimate the potential risks and disruptiveness from high global financial leverage. We are in phase 2 of a continuing and expanding economic and financial market instability. Flexibility, high liquidity, and concentrated asset deployment, when appropriate, will be key elements in attaining superior investment performance. The era of being fully invested and adjusting portfolio weights relative to an index has been over for more than a decade.
Tags: Equities Bearish US Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Sovereign Debt
Danger: Caution Ahead by Bob Rodriguez of First Pacific Advisors
Bill Gross vs. Warren Buffett and Larry Fink
While bonds seem frightfully overvalued, stocks are cheap because investors are so hell bent for safety. Investors continue to shift capital out of stock funds and into bond funds virtually every month. This behavior suggests that they are fixated on the zero risk of default and fail to appreciate how they will be hurt by the loss of buying power.
Tags: Equities Bullish Treasury Bonds US
Bill Gross vs. Warren Buffett and Larry Fink by Charles Lieberman of Advisors Capital Management
From Argentina to Athens?
There are way too many discomforting similarities between what has been happening in Greece recently and Argentinas 2001 path to economic and financial turmoil. Unless Greek and European officials reflect on key lessons from Argentina's experience back then, the parallels could also end up including a financial meltdown, a deep output collapse, and social and political turmoil. Greece need not and should not - continue to follow Argentinas example of eleven years ago.
Tags: Europe Sovereign Debt
From Argentina to Athens? by Mohamed A. El-Erian of PIMCO
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