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Advisor Perspectives
Insights into the world of high- and ultra-high net worth investing

August 5, 2008- Vol 2, Issue 32

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Very few topics have generated as much controversy over the last several years as fundamental indexing.  We had the opportunity to review an unpublished paper by economist and mathematician Michael Edesess, and we believe it offers the most persuasive arguments thus far rejecting the notion that fundamental indexing can outperform cap weighted indexing.

The
US wind power industry grew by 45% last year, representing one-third of all new generating capacity.  A research paper by Janus looks into alternative energy investing, discussing the opportunities in three segments - solar, wind, and ethanol. 

New academic research examines the role played by luck versus skill in active mutual fund management.  Evidence of skill among active mutual funds has declined over the 32-year period studied, particularly since 1990.  We offer our opinions on the reasons behind this.

In a follow-up to last week's story on the BRIC economies, we look at the consumer engines in each of the four countries, and whether a case can be made that they can be decoupled from the
US economy.

We have a correction to our story last week on water-based investing, and a letter to the Editor from a Florida-based advisor on the subject of the housing crisis.

Lastly, we highlight some recent Advisor Market Commentaries.

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Fundamental Indexing Debunked


Fundamental indexers claim that capitalization weighted indexing introduces a "return drag" by overweighting overpriced securities and underweighting underpriced securities.  We discuss a new study showing that this lacks theoretical basis, and that any inefficiencies which could have been exploited by fundamental indexing will be - or already have been - arbitraged away.

Read the article

 

Power Plays? Opportunities in Alternative Energy


With high oil prices, increasing incentives to address environmental concerns and rising global demand for electricity, few observers doubt that alternative energy sources will gain a greater share of total energy consumption going forward. However, as with all technological transformations, there typically are many companies that languish and fewer that enjoy long-term, sustainable success. In this brief, Janus shares its insight and research findings in three alternative energy market segments-solar, wind and ethanol-and provides an overview of potential opportunities in these prominent areas.

Read the article

 

Luck versus Skill in Active Mutual Funds


Applying a new statistical called the False Discovery Rate, academic researchers show that statistical evidence of skillful management among actively managed mutual funds has been in steady decline since 1990.  We review the study and the reasons behind the decay in evidence of skill.

Read the article

 

The BRIC Consumer Economies: Shopping but not Dropping

 
With more money in their pockets as a result of years of high GDP growth, BRIC consumers are spending like they never have before, driving a boom in retail investment.  Deirdre Keown looks at the dynamics behind consumer buying patterns, and the forecast for future growth.


Read the Article

 

A Correction and a Letter to the Editor

 
Our article last week on water-based investing incorrectly stated that the PFW Water Fund (PFWAX) had a 10-year track record as a water-based fund.  In fact, it was a traditional growth fund until June 1 of this year, at which time the fund was restructured to be a water-based fund.  Click here for more information.

A Florida-based advisor comments on the local housing market and our earlier story on the sub-prime crisis.

Read the letter

 

Highlights from Advisor Market Commentaries


We highlight two recent submissions to Advisor Market Commentaries:

Ray Ferrara, who runs the prominent advisory firm ProVise Management Group, publishes a bi-weekly commentary called the ProVise Bullets.  His thoughts are always relevant, entertaining, and insightful.

Read the Commentary

Charles Lieberman of Advisors Capital Management looks at the role of commodity prices - relative to wage growth - in the context of inflation, and the policy options available to the Fed in dealing with rising food and energy costs.

Read the Commentary

 

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