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Advisor Perspectives
Insights into the world of high- and ultra-high net worth investing

August 12, 2008- Vol 2, Issue 33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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David Darst of Morgan Stanley is one of the industry's leading experts on asset allocation.  In our interview, he discusses his current allocation recommendations, why he still holds a considerable portion of assets in cash, and where he sees the big picture opportunities over the next several years.

Our article last week on Luck versus Skill in Active Management drew a number of responses from readers.  Tom Howard, Professor of Finance at the University of
Denver and CEO of AthenaInvest, provides data from his own study.  Contrary to the findings of Russ Wermers and his co-authors, Howard shows that alpha and evidence of skill are increasing over time.  He identifies what he believes are the methodological problems in the Wermers study.

The second response to the Wermers study comes from Ron Surz, CEO of PPCA and a frequent contributor to this publication.  Surz points to the difficulty in using purely statistical measures to differentiate between luck and skill. We also provide Professor Wermers' response to Surz' contentions.

Our final two articles deal with the mortgage crisis.  Robert Pardes writes about the steps that investors in Private Label Mortgage securities should take to obtain the best value for their portfolios of distressed assets.  His identifies the activities that are likely to dominate the news over the near future, as funds scramble to salvage toxic investments.

An advisor writes in response to our earlier article on the sub-prime crisis, and addresses questions such as how much sub-prime debt will ultimately be written-off.

Lastly, we highlight some recent Advisor Market Commentaries.

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Our Interview with David Darst


David Darst is Chairman of the Asset Allocation Committee and Chief Investment Strategist of the Global Wealth Management Group at Morgan Stanley.  In our interview, he says what he believes are the keys to turning around the US economy, whether US equities are fairly valued at today's prices, and several areas that offer long-term "big picture" growth potential.

Read the article

 

Letter to the Editor - Luck versus Skill in Active Mutual Funds (Tom Howard)


Contrary to the findings of the study we wrote about last week, Tom Howard provides data showing that the alpha for actively managed funds is increasing over time, and the average fund beats the S&P 500 by about 100 basis points.  He further shows that this has been achieved with lower risk (standard deviation) and he explains why his findings differ from those of Wermers and his co-authors.

Read the article

 

Letter to the Editor - Luck versus Skill in Active Mutual Funds (Ron Surz)


Ron Surz also takes issue with the findings of Russ Wermers and his co-authors, and offers his refutation of the study's findings.  Like Tom Howard, Surz believes that a problem with Wermers' methodology is the requirement for a relatively long history of performance in order to measure alpha and assess the degree of luck versus skill.  Wermers responds to Surz' arguments.

Read the article

 

What to Do with Those Impaired MBS Holdings

 
The meltdown in the private label securities market has exposed flaws in the securitization structures, leaving unanswered many questions that remain to be tested in today's unprecedented market conditions. Despite the sheer magnitude of the loss experienced at every rating level, investor response to date represents a state of paralysis.  Robert Pardes examines the reasons behind this paralysis, and what investors can do to obtain the best value for their portfolios of distressed assets.

Read the Article

 

Letter to the Editor - Sub-Prime Crisis

 
A Virginia-based advisor writes in about our article earlier this year on the sub-prime crisis.  Although he agrees with us about our assessment, at that time, of the crisis.  He argues that writeoffs may not be nearly as bad as many have projected, and banks and brokers may find that, over the next several years, their portfolios are worth considerably more than is currently projected.

Read the letter

 

Highlights from Advisor Market Commentaries


We highlight two recent submissions to Advisor Market Commentaries:

R.W. Roge is a highly prominent advisor based in
Bohemia, NY, who also manages two mutual funds.  Their second quarter review includes  those sectors they favor in a "less than optimistic" economic scenario:

Read the Commentary

John Mauldin discusses the rise of a new asset class - private credit funds - where individuals, pensions, and other investors will pool assets and provide credit, initially competing with the banking system.

Read the Commentary

 

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