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Advisor Perspectives
Insights into the world of high- and ultra-high net worth investing

August 26, 2008- Vol 2, Issue 35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending represent a significant portion of the government budget.  With the first of 78 million baby boomers retiring this year, the trust funds that support these programs are entering a period of stress unlike anything they have experienced to date.  We look at the structure of the funds backing these programs and assess their solvency over the next 10 years and beyond.  We also look at the proposed policies of the Presidential candidates and the steps they will take to insure entitlement benefits for future generations.

Vitaliy Katsenelsen provides his analysis of the Chinese economy, which he likens to Starbucks.  Both are in a state of Late Stage Growth Obesity, and he looks at the specific challenges that Chinese investors will face.

The debate on luck versus skill in active management continues.  Tom Howard, CEO of AthenaInvest, responds to Dave Loeper's article last week, and defends his position that active management is a sensible choice in today's markets.

Lastly, we highlight some recent Advisor Market Commentaries.

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The Perilous Path of Social Security


Social Security is the backbone of the retirement plans for many Americans, and the ability to continue to finance this program will be a key issue in the upcoming election.  We show that the projections for Social Security indicate solvency for the near term, although changes will be needed to insure long term solvency.

Read the article

 

The Medicare and Medicaid Trust Funds: How Sick is the Patient


The Medicare and Medicaid programs face insolvency in the next decade, according to government projections.  Reform will be necessary, and we look at the severity of the issue and the proposals of the Presidential candidates.

Read the article

 

China and Starbucks: Late Stage Growth Obesity


What do Starbucks and
China have in common?  A lot!  Both got us hooked on consumption: one of fancy, expensive caffeinated liquids; the other on cheap foreign made goods.  Both have defied the conventional wisdom - they grew faster and longer than common sense told us was possible.  They also share another striking commonality:  both are suffering from late stage growth obesity (LSGO).

Read the article

 

Letter to the Editor:  The New Ptolemains

 
The astronomer Ptolemy believed the universe revolved around the Earth.  To prove his theory he introduced a series of incremental corrections (or "epicycles") to adjust for new observations.  Tom Howard of AthenaInvest argues that this is the path taken by advocates of style box benchmarking, and that a new paradigm - analogous to the Copernican heliocentric theory - is needed to evaluate active managers.

Read the Article

 

Highlights from Advisor Market Commentaries


We highlight two recent submissions to Advisor Market Commentaries:

John Mauldin argues that it is not just Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that are in trouble; our entire banking system is in crisis.

Read the Commentary

Dr. Charles Lieberman looks at the delicate balance the Fed must strike between fighting inflation and stimulating growth in the economy.

Read the Commentary

 

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