Advisor Perspectives
Insights into the world of high- and ultra-high net worth investing

September 9, 2008- Vol 2, Issue 37

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Janus Investments


Yale professor Robert Shiller is perhaps the leading authority on the housing markets and the author of a new book, The Subprime Solution.  In our interview, he discusses the root causes of the crisis and the steps that should be taken to foster a recovery, including a system to provide subsidized financial advice to an expanded segment of the population.

Infrastructure investing used to be confined to large institutional investors, but new funds are providing access to advisors and retail investors.  Susan Weiner looks at the funds that are available, and speaks with Harold Evensky to see how he evaluates these funds.

Team-based mutual fund management has exploded in popularity, despite a number of studies showing it offers no performance advantage.  We look at a new study that contradicts these findings, offering evidence that team-based management is actually a superior structure.

Tom Howard's article last week, The New Ptolemains, on the role of luck versus skill in active management drew three responses.  First, Dave Loeper of FundGrades argues that the S&P 500 is not the appropriate benchmark for Howard's analysis, and provides data showing that Howard's results would change dramatically if a different benchmark were used.  Next, Michael Edesess (author of a recent study challenging fundamental indexing) takes us to the imaginary land of Four-Packistan, where four-pack-a-day smokers provide a metaphor for the champions of active management.  Finally, Adam Apt, an advisor who is also a trained historian of science, argues that Howard's analogy to Ptolemy and astronomy is inappropriate.

Lastly, we highlight some recent Advisor Market Commentaries.

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Our Interview with Robert Shiller


Robert Shiller is the co-originator of the S&P/Case Shiller Housing Index and a highly respected authority on the housing markets.  He discusses his new book, which outlines a number of steps that should be taken to solve this crisis and prevent future ones.  Shiller is a believer in markets as agents of change, and he advocates significant reforms to insure the long term stability of the housing markets.

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Global Infrastructure Investing: New Asset Class or Fad?


With their high returns and low correlations to other major indices over the past five years, investments in global infrastructure-toll roads, airports, utilities and the like-are attracting attention from financial advisors and new products from fund providers.  But will such impressive performance continue? And, if you buy the case for this kind of investing, how should you evaluate the funds vying for your attention?  Susan Weiner looks at the case for infrastructure investing, and talks to Harold Evensky for his insights.

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When it Comes to Fund Management, Two Heads Really are Better than One


A new study shows that team-based management is like a highly structured basketball offense that employs carefully scripted plays.  Star players (or, in the case funds, star managers) will choose to play for teams with unstructured offenses because it allows them to showcase their skills, but it is the structured offense that wins more games.

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Luck versus Skill in Active Management: Three Letters to the Editor

 
Tom Howard's article, The New Ptolemains, two weeks ago elicited three responses from readers in the ongoing debate over the role of luck versus skill in active management.

Dave Loeper of FundGrades moves beyond fund subsets and style boxes to address the universe of all domestic equities and the universe of global equities in search of evidence of skill. With these very broad measures, Loeper finds that less than fifty percent of funds had higher return and a majority of funds had greater risk than the broad all domestic equity benchmark. Loeper argues, as he has in the past, that skill probably exists but luck is also present and cannot be ignored..

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Michael Edesess of Fair Advisors argues that it is impossible to determine whether a robustly healthy 95-year-old man who smoked all his life owes his health to the cigarette brand he smoked, or only to luck. The statistical fact of his having lived to be 95 is not enough to prove that the cigarette was responsible. Similarly, it is impossible to determine whether an investment manager who performed well over a long period was skillful, or just lucky.  Travel with Edesess to the imaginary
land of Four-Packistan to see how this story unfolds.

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Adam Apt is an advisor as well as a trained historian of science.  Apt challenges Howard's assertion that neo-classical financial theory, like Ptolemaic astronomy in the sixteenth century, is antiquated, and that he has produced observational evidence that will lead to a revolution in financial thought.  Apt says an analogy to physics would be more appropriate than one to astronomy.

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Highlights from Advisor Market Commentaries


We highlight two recent submissions to Advisor Market Commentaries:

If you haven't already read enough about the subprime and the GSE's, John Mauldin tallies what he expects the final cost will be on the banking system, and looks at which banks are in trouble and which are not.

Read the Commentary

Dr. Charles Lieberman of Advisors Capital Management also looks at the GSE bailout and the impact it will have on investors, homeowners, and borrowers.

Read the Commentary

 

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