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Advisor Perspectives
Insights into the world of high- and ultra-high net worth investing

October 7, 2008- Vol 2, Issue 41

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Van Eck

Harvard, Yale, and other top endowments have generated impressive returns over the last couple of decades.  A new study examines the secrets to their success - it is more than just asset allocation - and explains why their performance will be hard to duplicate in the years ahead.

American Century Investments' fixed income team provides a comprehensive analysis of the economy, including their forecast for consumer spending and the trajectory of the housing market.  They discuss how they are adjusting their portfolios in response to market conditions.  We welcome their sponsored content.

The impact of the credit crisis in emerging markets is very different from developed economies.  We speak with Mark Madden, who has 25 years of experience managing emerging market portfolios, about the investing themes that are likely to succeed in emerging markets.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, was the keynote speaker at this year's FPA conference in
Boston.  As you might expect, he says the black swan phenomenon was at the heart of risk management errors that led to the credit crisis.

Ron Surz provides his award-winning commentary on global market performance for the third quarter.  It's not an upbeat picture, but Ron shows the few segments of the market that did well, and discusses how overly aggressive target date glide paths impacted portfolios for those nearing retirement.

Lastly, we highlight some recent Advisor Market Commentaries.

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Why It's Hard to Copy Harvard and Yale


A new study documents the impressive performance of top endowments.  It also shows that such performance cannot be explained by just asset allocation or the use of alternative investments.  Other factors contribute to the performance of top endowments, which advisors and investors will find much more difficult to emulate.

Read the article

 

The Credit Crisis and Repricing of Risk, One Year Later

 
A year after 2007's stormy "Summer of Subprime" and the damaging credit crisis waves it spawned, the investment community has been tossed and turned again by new credit and financial storms. The American Century Investments Fixed Income team discusses what they saw then, how they positioned their fixed-income portfolios over the last year and what they see coming next.

Read the article

 

The Global Credit Crisis and Emerging Markets


The credit crisis, an impending recession, and fears of escalating inflation are crippling growth prospects in developed economies. Rather than settling for meager returns in these markets, investors should be aware that over the next several years emerging market equities will likely outperform their developed market counterparts, says Mark Madden, lead portfolio manager of Ninth Wave Capital, a Boston-based global emerging markets fund.

Read the article

 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: How to Live in a World of Black Swans


In his keynote speech at this year's FPA conference, Taleb discusses the role of "black swans" in the current credit crisis.  He offers his own investment advice, which is to use barbell portfolios that distinguish between risky and risk-free components, and to be on the lookout for positive black swans.

Read the article

 

A Decrepit Decade Just Keeps Getting Worse


Industry consultant Ron Surz dissects global market performance for the third quarter, beginning with the fact that the current decade is likely to be the worst performing decade - ever.  Ron examines performance by market cap, style, sector, and region, along with examining hedge fund and target date returns.

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Highlights from Advisor Market Commentaries


We highlight recent submissions to Advisor Market Commentaries:

Phillipa Dunne & Doug Henwood of the Liscio Report were kind enough to allow us to republish one of their recent articles, which shows how other governments have deal
t with their own credit crises.

Read the Commentary

John Mauldin provides data illustrating the damage that has been done to the credit system, and defends his thesis that the economy is headed for deflation, not inflation.

Read the Commentary

 

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