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Advisor Perspectives
Insights into the world of high- and ultra-high net worth investing
April 28, 2009- Vol 3, Issue 17
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Gary Shilling is well-known
for his forecasting record,
having correctly predicted major economic
events over the past several decades. Beginning in 2002,
he warned his clients that the housing market "has taken on
self-feeding, bubble dimensions that will sooner or later collapse,"
and continued to sound this warning through 2007, when his predictions came true. Dr. Shilling shares with us his current forecast
for the economy and the market.
If the first quarter of 2009 is any indication, we appear to be in for another year (or longer) of extreme market
volatility and uncertainty, the result of a worsening recession
and a dismal profit picture, still frozen credit markets, a struggling auto
industry, and doubtfulness about the government's stimulus package. Matt
Oldroyd, Vice President and Client Portfolio Manager and Shawn Connor,
Director, Product Management, Value Equities for American Century
Investments explain why that's a strong
case for investing in American Century's Equity Income fund - a fund for
all seasons. We thank them for their sponsorship.
Nobody needs an active manager in a bull market - an index fund will do
just fine. But active managers earn their
keep in bear markets, and the current one represents another chance to see whether they add value.
We review Standard & Poor's SPIVA
study to see whether it answers this very important question.
George Friedman is CEO of the
private intelligence and forecasting firm STRATFOR and advises clients on
the important trends in geopolitics and
their impact on world economies. Friedman spoke at the
recent Altegris Strategic Investment Conference about the important trends for investors over the next 100
years.
More articles below...
Two things make your day productive -
the first is what you do and the second is how you do it. Dan Richards provides some practical tips for advisors to structure their days for maximum productivity.
One more bubble, please. After
the bubbles in technology, housing, and commodities, we saw the mother of
all bubbles: the one in global liquidity. The world economy seemed to
require bubbles for its continued functioning. Guest contributor Vitaliy
Katsenelson says investors' prayers are now being answered: There's a new bubble now - or an old one is being
re-inflated - which he calls the Troubled
China Revival Program (TCRP).
Building your business is based on developing solid relationships and you
know there is no quick way to attract clients. Twitter is no different- it will expose you to people you never would have met
otherwise, but you will not see instant results. Kristen Luke provides the second
installment in her two-part series on how
to get started with Twitter.
Lastly, we highlight submissions to Advisor
Market Commentaries.
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Gary Shilling believes we should prepare for slow growth and deflation, and
he explains why the government's efforts to "inflate its way out of
this crisis" will not succeed. Shilling gives his forecast for
the S&P 500 and the assets classes he likes and dislikes in the market
today.
Gary Shilling - Economic Forecast and
Current Market Opportunities
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American
Century Equity Income: A Fund for All Seasons
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Markets have always been uncertain, but never more so than today.
Prospering across these ebbs & flows requires a game plan focused on
both performance & protection. American Century Equity Income seeks to
maximize returns and minimize risks through a strict focus on value,
quality and income - characteristics believed to provide not only better
returns over time, but enhanced downside protection and performance
consistency as well.
American Century Equity Income: A Fund
for All Seasons
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Active
versus Passive Management in Bear Markets
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When an index
provider such as Standard & Poor's claims its indices outperform active
managers, we believe a healthy does of skepticism is in order. We
look at the methodology underpinning S&P's latest SPIVA study and show
that their results should be taken with a big grain of salt.
Active versus Passive Management in
Bear Markets
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Forecasting
100 Years Ahead
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"The fundamental problem of the 21st century will be labor
shortage," says George Friedman of STRATFOR. "Capital will
outstrip the availability of labor." As a result, he expects robotics
to be a critical industry, attracting surplus capital to both create
systems that can compensate for labor shortages and to develop energy
sources to drive these advancements.
Forecasting 100 Years Ahead
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Structuring
Your Day for Maximum Productivity
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A number of advisors have begun using a simple idea to dramatically
increase the return they get on their day, by ensuring they're focusing on
high return activities. Making your time in the office productive
requires intentionally stepping back at the start of the week and asking
"what is the highest and best use of this week as a whole and each day
within this week?"
Structuring Your Day for Maximum
Productivity
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China
needs to stimulate its economy. It's facing a very delicate situation
indeed - which is a nice way of saying that China's
screwed. China
needs money internally to finance its continued growth. However, if it were
to sell dollar-denominated treasuries, several bad things would happen, and
Vitaliy Katsenelson tells you what they are.
The Next Great Bubble?
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Twitter
Your Way to New Clients, Part Two
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For Twitter to work, you must be genuine and you must put in the
effort. Kristen Luke shows how to strike the right balance between
personal and business "Tweets," and why it is important to add
value in your communications via this new medium.
Twitter Your Way to New Clients,
Part Two
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Highlights
from Advisor Market Commentaries
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The analysts at Litman Gregory provide their current thinking about the investment
landscape. They also spend some time going into thorough detail on their
analysis and outlook for equities in particular as well as other asset
classes.
Read the commentary
According to Nouriel Roubini of the RGE Monitor, by the end of Q1 2009,
there were some signs that the pace of contraction had slowed in many
economies especially in the U.S. and China, where policy responses have been more significant
and leading indicators in the manufacturing sector may have bottomed before
they did in Europe and Japan.
Read the commentary
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Perspectives
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