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Advisor Perspectives
Insights into the world of high- and ultra-high net worth investing

August 11, 2009- Vol 3, Issue 32

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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ByAllAccounts


Bill Gross of PIMCO forecasts a New Normal - slow economic growth, higher inflation, and increasing correlations among asset classes.  If this view is correct, what should investors do?  Geoff Considine examines the implications for asset allocation and financial planning by stress-testing some well-known asset allocations to see how well they will serve investors in the forecast environment.

Wealth managers who are considering managing 401(k) plans need to re-think those plans, according to Brian Murphy. Murphy, who runs Pathways Financial Partners, a Tucson, AZ-based investment advisory firm, says the 401(k) business has become a highly commoditized industry that makes it easy for clients to switch to an alternative, lower-cost provider.

We have said before that Michael Lewitt's newsletter is a must-read, and this edition is no exception.  Lewitt questions whether we are witnessing a summer calm before the storm, comments on the secured and unsecured debt asset classes, and opines on the abuses of unregulated dark pools of capital.  We encourage you to subscribe to this valuable publication through the link we provide.

To understand why investors fail to stick to their plans, economists and academics are studying the rapidly growing field of "behavioral finance," analyzing the patterns of behavior that cost investors serious money.  Dan Richards looks at the current research and its implications for investors and advisors.

One way to significantly increase the chances of marketing success is to develop a marketing plan and stick to it.  Kristen Luke says forget the formal marketing plan and just outline your marketing activities and budget, and she provides a step-by-step guide for you to follow.

Our interview last week with economist Paul Krugman drew an unprecedented number of responses - all of which were critical of Krugman's proposed policies.  Read our letters to the Editor.

Lastly, we highlight submissions to Advisor Market Commentaries.


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What the New Normal Means for Asset Allocation


Investors became complacent in the years up to 2007 in terms of taking on risk.  Today, they have swung to the opposite extreme.  In the future, investors must take a critical look at traditional asset allocation models and consider how they should be adapted to better serve the demands of the New Normal. 

 

What the New Normal Means for Asset Allocation

 

The Business You Don't Want: 401(k) Plans

 

"The 401(k) business is very challenging," says Brian Murphy of Pathways Financial Partners.  "Advisors who dabble in 401(k) plans will always lose to an expert who understands all aspects of the plan - such as whether it is appropriate for a carve-out (a separate plan for top employees) or for an ESOP.  Experts will come in and tell the client how to do it better, and you will be fired."

The Business You Don't Want: 401(k) Plans

 

At the Risk of Repeating Ourselves

 

Despite what the pundits would have you believe, nobody has the faintest idea whether the economy is going to experience sustainable growth once the government stops stimulating it. The Armageddon trade is clearly off the table, but the Return to Nirvana trade is nowhere on the horizon either.

At the Risk of Repeating Ourselves

 

Behavioral Finance Traps En Route to Investment Success


Perhaps the best insight into the behavioral finance traps that cost clients money comes from cartoonist Walt Kelly's famous line from the cartoon strip Pogo: "We have seen the enemy and he is us."  The good news is that awareness is the first step to overcoming these dangerous traps. Help clients understand the behaviors that undermine investment success and you and they will be better positioned to avoid them going forward.

Behavioral Finance Traps En Route to Investment Success

 

How to Construct a Marketing Plan and Budget


Kristen Luke offers a four-step plan for constructing a marketing plan and budget - choose your strategies, plan your year, create a budget, and implement the plan.  She also provides worksheets to facilitate the process.

How to Construct a Marketing Plan and Budget

 

Letters to the Editor - Paul Krugman


If you are among those who believe Paul Krugman is advocating Keynesian policies doomed to failure, then you will agree with those who responded to our interview with professor Krugman last week.

Letters to the Editor - Paul Krugman

 

Highlights from Advisor Market Commentaries

 
The job market remains the laggard, as is typical, in the recovery. Even so, conditions seem to be falling into place for something stronger than the consensus tepid economic recovery. Residential construction and manufacturing should lead the rebound. Once the consumer kicks in, there is a real possibility that the economy could be off to the races. So the possibility of a V-shaped recovery is rising.

It Is Looking More Like A V-Shaped Recovery by Dr. Charles Lieberman of Advisors Capital Management

Economic data remained positive throughout the week and improvements in the ISM index provided early support to the equity markets.  Data on pending home sales also surprised to the upside as a combination of low prices and low mortgage rates motivated buyers.  By the end of the week, the unemployment report offered the most hope of a weakening recession.   

Economic Improvement Going Global - by the Fortigent Investment Research Team

 

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