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Research Perspectives

April 13, 2010 - Vol 4, Issue 15star logo

Envestnet

Dear Robert,

Help your HNW clients get the most out of a Roth ConversionBlackRock's upcoming webinar will help you rethink the Roth opportunity and develop strategies for tax diversification.

Spring has arrived, and along with the warmer weather and daffodils you will notice that we've redesigned our web site. Our home page now contains a list of the most recently published articles and commentaries, and we've made the navigation simpler and better organized. Look for more improvements in the coming weeks.
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"When faced with critical decisions, our minds naturally want to go down one path, when a better way to think about the problem is to go down another path," said Michael Mauboussin. Mauboussin is the Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management and the author of the newly released book Think Twice, and we review some of the key findings of his research.

The current economic and market environment presents intriguing challenges for income-seeking, risk-averse investors. One effect of the Federal Reserve's policy of holding short-term interest rates at historically low levels is to force cautious, safety-oriented investors out of cash-equivalent investments. In this article, David MacEwen, chief investment officer for fixed income, discusses a number of opportunities that may provide additional yield for clients within a risk-managed, fixed-income framework.  We thank American Century Investments for their sponsorship.

Advisors provide the greatest value by being an emotional anchor for clients- keeping the highs from being too high during times of untrammeled optimism, such as we saw in 2000, and the lows from being too low during periods of absolute pessimism, such as we saw a year ago and in many cases still see today. Playing that role takes more than just having an opinion - you need credible evidence to back you up, which Dan Richards offers.
 
While markets may be recovering, public debts are still mounting. Charlie Curnow reviews Plunder, the new book by Steven Greenhut, which blames public sector unions for a large portion of these debts. To Greenhut, we the taxpayers are helpless villagers, while corrupt public employee unions are barbarians at the gate, raiding government treasuries and leaving us with nothing but unfunded liabilities.

The fiscal train wreck in the United States has not been set back on the tracks, and the global imbalances that led to the financial crisis have not gone away. Quite to the contrary, writes Michael Lewittin Shameless, the latest edition of his HCM newsletter. In fact, if progress isn't made with respect to these issues, and if intelligent financial reform is not enacted, future instability is guaranteed.  We are privileged to be able to provide this to you; to subscribe directly to the HCM newsletter, go here.

There is a pitfall that is rarely anticipated and only occurs for those who are the most successful using social media, writes Kristen LukeSocial media can create more relationships and opportunities than one person can reasonably handle.

"What we have come to learn from modern genetics, which has huge social implications, is that it's neither nature nor nurture. It's both combined," says James Heckman in this interview with Dan Richards. Heckman, who won the Nobel Prizein Economics in 2000, discusses the key drivers of success in human development.

Lastly, we highlight submissions to Advisor Market Commentaries.

We welcome guest submissions from our readers.  For more information, here are our guidelines.

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star logoWhy We Make Bad Decisions

In December of 2008, Stephen Greenspan, a developmental psychologist, published The Annals of Gullibility, the first comprehensive academic treatment of why people are gullible.  A few days later Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme was revealed, a crime for which he is now serving a 150-year prison sentence.  Unrelated?  Not quite.  Greenspan was one of Madoff's victims.  He had a third of his retirement savings invested with Madoff.

Why We Make Bad Decisions

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star logoYield Opportunities Still Exist in Bonds

"The tension many fixed-income investors face is between maximizing current yields and minimizing risk to principal," says David MacEwen. "We think there are a number of attractive opportunities to do that despite the low-rate environment.

Yield Opportunities Still Exist in Bonds

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star logoToday's Number One Way to Demonstrate Your Value

Dan provide some useful perspective on the strengths that the U.S. brings to the coming global battle for economic supremacy ... which can be useful ammunition in reminding clients about some of the positives that America brings to this battle.

Today's Number One Way to Demonstrate Your Value

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star logoAre Public Employees Bankrupting the Nation?

Author Steven Greenhut blames aggressive union tactics and gutless politicians for this alleged plundering of state treasuries, which he argues creates an "unsustainable" situation by spurring higher taxes and enormous debts that will ultimately be paid by our grandchildren.  That storyline, however, is misleading, as Charlie Curnow writes in his review of Greenhut's book Plunder.

Are Public Employees Bankrupting the Nation?

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star logoShameless: Michael Lewitt on the US Economy and Other Topics

In the latest edition of his newsletter, Michael Lewitt offers his thoughts on the challenges ahead for US economic recovery, healthcare and financial reform, the private equity industry, recent revelations regarding Lehman Brothers' collapse, China, and Israel-US relations.

Shameless: Michael Lewitt on the US Economy and Other Topics

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star logoUnforeseen Pitfalls of Social Media Success

There is a compelling marketing reason to connect with hundreds or thousands of people on social networking sites.  The more people you are connected with, the more people hear your message and hopefully engage your services.  However, this strategy comes with a price.

Unforeseen Pitfalls of Social Media Success

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star logoJames Heckman on the Drivers of Human Success

 

"The motto is skill begets skill and productivity begets productivity," says James Heckman.  "The dynamics of this are fascinating to understand, and I think they can shape and reshape the way we think about social policy."

James Heckman on the Drivers of Human Success

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star logoHighlights from Market Commentaries


Stock markets are overbought and overvalued, sentiment is too bullish, and yield trends are hostile. These high risk conditions tend to lead markets to successive but slight and marginal new highs. They also tend to invite nearly vertical drops of more than 10 percent over a period of weeks. The present conditions therefore recommend a defensive investment stance. The implied total return for the S&P 500 over the coming decade is just 5.7 percent annually, the lowest level observed in any period prior to the late 1990's met bubble.

Unpleasant Skewby John P. Hussman of Hussman Funds



In an interview, PIMCO Managing Director Paul McCulley discusses his firm's cyclical economic outlook and its impact on investment strategy. PIMCO's cyclical outlook revolves around two core tensions in the global economy. The first is the huge disparity in the rate of recovery between highly leveraged developed countries and relatively balanced developing countries. The second tension is the resistance to cyclical recovery in the developed world due to deleveraging and other headwinds.

Paul McCulley Discusses PIMCO's Cyclical Outlookby Paul McCulley of PIMCO



The triumphant announcement from Greece, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund a couple of weeks ago has not calmed markets, nor has it lowered Greek borrowing costs. Buoyed by a cyclical recovery, markets around the world have yet to recognize the complexity of this situation. When they do, it will also become apparent that Greece is part of a wider, and historically unfamiliar phenomenon - that of a simultaneous and large disruption to the balance sheets of many industrial countries.

Why the Greek Rescue Isn't Going According to Planby Mohammed El-Erian of PIMCO



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