CAdvisor Perspectives new logo headertant Contact

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quick Links

short red bar

Become a Subscriber (free)

Advisor Perspectives Home Page
Asset Allocation Data
Mutual Fund Data
Advisor Commentaries
Top 10 Most Popular Articles
Follow us on Twitter


Research Perspectives

April 27, 2010 - Vol 4, Issue 17star logo

Schroders Webinar

Dear Reader,

If you have not yet had a chance to complete the Outsourcing Investment Management survey, please take a moment and do so hereThe results will be shared in Advisor Perspectives, please stay tuned.
_______________________________________________________________________

Last week's Strategic Investment Conference, sponsored by Altegris Investments and John Mauldin, featured many of the foremost thought leaders in the investment industry.  The first three articles are based on presentations given at that conference, and additional articles will appear next week.

PIMCO's Paul McCulley parents his 20-year-old son with an overarching principle: If you want access to the "Bank of Dad," then you must comply with the regulations of the "Bank of Dad."  Wall Street abandoned similar tenets with in the run-up to the credit crisis, and now McCulley says that core principle - to play the game, you must accept regulation - needs to be restored before another crisis unfolds.

The US faces 10 years of slow growth and deflation that could rival Japan's "lost decade" - two words which Gary Shilling did not utter but which unmistakably characterize his forecast.  Shilling is founder and President of the New Jersey-based economic consulting firm A. Gary Shilling & Co.

Few topics are as contentious as the fate of the Chinese economy. The bulls argue that its growth will propel the global economic recovery and that China will ultimately supplant the United States as the leading world superpower.  According to the bears, the Chinese economy has been fueled by unsustainable fiscal stimuliand is a prototypical bubble poised to burst.  Five panelists at the Strategic Investment Conference debated this question.

With unprecedented volatility now largely behind us, J.P. Morgan's Chief Investment Strategist David Kelly believes that the economy is entering a period of recovery. To move forward, we must abandon our negative mindsets and focus on opportunities for expansion.

Dan Richards works out in the early mornings with a psychiatrist, who recently forwarded an article in the New York Review of Books by Jerome Groopman, a physician and frequent writer on the challenges of modern day medicine. As Dan read it, he was struck by the parallels between the things that cause doctors and investors to go wrong.

Wendy Cook specializes in helping advisors write newsletters and create presentations, and in this guest contribution she shares a number of tips to improve your writing skills.  Cook is passionate about writing, and her article covers topics such as the importance of brevity and how to tailor content to your audience.

If nobody opens your eNewsletter is a waste of time?  Not at all! Having your contacts read your eNewsletter to stay informed about your business and educate themselves about their finances is just one possible outcome.  Kristen Luke gives four other reasons why you should continue to send your eNewsletter, even if no one is reading it.

Choosing the appropriate target date fund (TDF) for an investor is not easy, given the large number of products in the marketplace and the lack of tools to easily compare those offerings.  That choice, however, is made a lot easier if one focuses on the component of TDFs where investors are exposed to the greatest risk - what guest contributor Ron Surz calls the "risk zone." 

Lastly, we highlight submissions to Advisor Market Commentaries.

We welcome guest submissions from our readers.  For more information, here are our guidelines.

If you are experiencing problems opening or navigating through our newsletters, we can send you a text-only version.  Please send an email to feedback@advisorperspectives.com requesting the "text-only" version.

If you have received this newsletter in error, or you do not wish to receive future newsletters, please
reply to this email with the word “unsubscribe” in the subject line.

   advertise in AP
  Contact us about advertising

 

Red divider bar

 

star logoPaul McCulley's Design for Financial Regulation

"Regulatory reform is going to happen," McCulley said.  "This crisis will not be wasted." 

Paul McCulley's Design for Financial Regulation

Red divider bar

 

star logoGary Shilling: America's Lost Decade

Our GDP will grow by a mere 2% annually over the next decade, Shilling said, and further growth will be impossible while we "socialize our debt" - transferring financial sector and household liabilities to the federal balance sheet. 

Gary Shilling: America's Lost Decade

Red divider bar

 

star logoChina: House of Cards or Emerging Superpower?

Harvard historian Niall Ferguson believes in China in both the short and long term.  "When things change as profoundly as they are changing now, and when the possibility exists that after 500 years of western predominance an Asian economy is going to catch up with the US, we find it difficult to believe," he said.  "We want to tell ourselves it is some sort of bubble and they will fall on their faces.  It sounds like wishful thinking when I hear Americans say that."

 

star logoThe Four Horsemen of Growth: David Kelly's Guide to Markets

According to Kelly, four key sectors - "the four horsemen of recessions" - both lead the economy into recession and bring it into recovery: auto sales, changes in inventory, business equipment spending, and home building.

The Four Horsemen of Growth: David Kelly's Guide to Markets

Red divider bar

 

star logoInvesting Insights from Doctors

Many investors and the financial advisors they work with are reflecting on the events of the past couple of years and reshaping their strategies going forward.  As part of that process, it's important to think about strategies to avoid the traps of human nature that cause both doctors and investors to go wrong. Only by doing that will investors maximize their portfolio returns going forward.

Investing Insights from Doctors

Red divider bar

 

star logoWriting in Plain Speak

To the extent that you can relax and truly enjoy the writing process, you'll have a leg up in the quality of your work. Unfortunately, passion is more an infection than a learning process, says Wendy Cook. Some of us are highly susceptible, while others seem immune.

Writing in Plain Speak

Red divider bar

Don't become frustrated or take it personally when your clients, centers of influence and prospects aren't reading your emails.  Just remember that is not the goal. 

Four Reasons to Keep Sending Your eNewsletter that No One Reads

Red divider bar

 

star logoThe Hidden Risk in Target Date Funds

The risk zone is the five to ten years before and after retirement.  During this period, target date investors are least able to tolerate adverse market conditions, when significant dollar losses in their portfolio can be compensated for only by reducing their standard of living.

The Hidden Risk in Target Date Funds

Red divider bar

 

star logoHighlights from Market Commentaries

 

How does the current Dow recovery compare with major recoveries in the past? Doug Short created an overlay of the first 500 days of 16 recoveries in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since its creation in 1896 to help answer that very question. Compared to the other 15 rallies at the equivalent point, the current rally is in fourth place. The volatile recovery after the Crash of 1929 leads the pack by a wide margin. Where do we go from here? Some of the historic 500-day rallies went on to substantially higher gains. On the other hand, several of the earliest rallies soon faltered.

Sixteen Dow Recoveries by Doug Short of Doug Short



According to the Shiller P/E ratio, the S&P 500 is now 35 percent overvalued - a full one standard deviation event. It would be nice to say that a higher-than-normal P/E is justified by low inflation and low interest rates. Real bond yields are not that far from their long-run averages, but equity valuation is, and something is going to give at some point. The operative strategy is to buy low and sell high, not the opposite. Defensive income-oriented strategies make perfect sense right now.

The Over-Under on Valuation by David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff



Overall, the current data presents at best a mixed picture of credit conditions. Investors should not be surprised by a significant second wave of credit strains. It seems unwise for investors to celebrate variations of a few basis points in delinquency rates, however. It seems equally unwise to celebrate 'favorable' bank earnings reports that are exclusively driven by reduced loan loss provisions, particularly when the volume of impaired loans has not declined proportionately.

Earning More by Setting Aside Less by John P. Hussman of Hussman Funds

 

Red divider bar