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star logoMay 4, 2010 - Vol 4, Issue 18



Dear ReadVanEcker,


The Lacy Hunt and George Friedman articles below are from the Strategic Investment Conference held two weeks ago and sponsored by Altegris Investments and John Mauldin.

Underpinning the Obama administration's economic policies is the work of John Maynard Keynes, the legendary British economist who called for large fiscal and monetary interventions to counter the Great Depression.  On this critical issue, Keynes was wrong, says Lacy Hunt, the internationally renowned economist with Texas-based Hoisington Investment.

After a year of intense partisan combat and fiery debates on Capitol Hill, President Obama signed a massive, nearly $1 trillion health care bill on March 23 that reshapes an industry that accounts for one-sixth of the U.S. economy. No one at American Century Investments® has followed the health care reform bill more closely than Michael Liss, vice president and portfolio manager for American Century Value, the company's flagship value portfolio, and he offers his thoughts on legislation. We thank American Century Investments for their sponsorship.

Janus provides sector reviews and reports on quarterly market performance in a new commentary.  While economic recovery is in place, the firm says, its magnitude is uncertain.  Topics covered include winners and losers in the energy sector, Chinese growth from within, the evolution of internet-related media and communications, and the financial impact of health reform.  We thank Janus for their sponsorship.
Just as imbalances arise in economics, so they do in geopolitics.  Its power weakened, the US now faces a difficult choice in the Mideast, where its best option is now to strike a deal with the regional player it most demonizes, Iran, according to George Friedman, founder and CEO of the geopolitical consulting firm STRATFOR.

In his review of the new book, The Quants, Michael Edesess says its author, Scott Patterson, mistakenly glorifies the accomplishments of the supposed quantitative "geniuses" on Wall Street.  Those quantitative analysts are not disciplined for their lack of rigor and, as a result, produce results that are not justified by the underlying mathematics or by common sense.

Among the items that headline the proposed financial reform legislation is a new Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA) that would consolidate regulatory responsibilities for consumer financial products, currently handled by four separate agencies, in one central office.  Charlie Curnow looks that the goals of the CFPA and its implications for consumers.

Last summer, Dan Richards talked to a thirty-year veteran of the business who's consistently ranked as a top advisor.  The week before, he'd talked to a group of rookies just entering the business.  In the question and answer period, he was been asked about the single most important thing he learned over the course of his career.

Just because you haven't had much luck generating referrals from traditional centers of influence (COIs), don't give up your COI marketing strategy all together. COIs don't have to be CPAs or attorneys, says Kristen LukeThey can be anyone who has the ability to influence a potential client to pick up the phone and call you.

In the latest installment of his series of articles geared to the educated layman, Adam Apt looks at the topic of the time value of money, and how discount rates can be used to determine the value of a security.  He shows the practical applications of present value calculations and its limitations.

Lastly, we highlight submissions to Advisor Market Commentaries.

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star logoLacy Hunt: Keynes was Wrong (and Ricardo was Right)

"The policy mix of substantial increases in spending and increases in taxes means you are going to contract aggregate demand," Lacy Hunt said.  "It does not create growth; it sends you in the opposite direction."

Lacy Hunt: Keynes was Wrong (and Ricardo was Right)

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star logoInvestors Face a New Health Care Landscape

Michael Liss is the chief analyst on American Century Investments' value team assigned to the health care sector, which means he is now factoring in the sweeping legislation as he examines and selects health care businesses for the portfolio. In this article, Liss provides his thoughts on how the legislation is likely to impact key parts of the industry, and how he's currently invested in the sector.

 

star logoTimely Market Insights: Sector Reviews and Quarterly Perspective on the Financial Markets

Clients want detail on what's going on in the financial markets and ideas about where there is opportunity. Access the latest thinking from Janus analysts and portfolio managers for angles on specific sectors as well as broader investment themes.

Timely Market Insights


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star logoIran, Iraq and Embracing the Devil

"This is quite a dangerous situation," says George Friedman.  "If negotiations fail, the US faces the unpalatable choice of withdrawing from Iraq or, if it stays, facing further destabilization from Iran that might lead to the closing of the Straits of Hormuz."

Iran, Iraq and Embracing the Devil

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star logoThe Quants

"Most of the pseudo-mathematicians don't really know the difference between a discrete process and a continuous process, and when it is reasonable to believe that a continuous process can be assumed for theoretical purposes because the (real-world) discrete process converges to it, and when it is not," says Michael Edesess.

The Quants

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star logoThe Future of Consumer Financial Protection

The primary goal of the CFPA would be to protect consumers from misleading and unfair lending practices.  Its main targets would likely be the subprime and adjustable-rate mortgages that figured so prominently in the recent economic crisis, as well as other low-quality consumer financial products like high-interest credit cards and payday loans.

The Future of Consumer Financial Protection

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star logoFour Words of Advice from a Top Advisor

There are lots of things you can talk about in conversations with existing and prospective clients. As you think about how you use the time during meetings, consider adding a focus on the really big problems they're grappling with to the list.

Four Words of Advice from a Top Advisor

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While creating relationships with alternative COIs may not produce referrals more quickly than with traditional COIs, they are less likely to have existing relationships with financial advisors.  Creating a strategy for alternative COIs may turn out to be much more effective for your business than chasing after CPAs and attorneys.

Alternative Centers of Influence

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star logoHow Much is that Investment Worth in Real Money?

"The reason that the discount factor has an element that compensates for risk is that either the interest rate component of the discount factor or the price change component, or both, has elements that compensate for risk," says Adam Apt.  "For example, the more risky that bonds are, the higher the interest rates that they pay."

How Much is that Investment Worth in Real Money?

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star logoHighlights from Market Commentaries

Barry Ritholtz has been watching some of the really bad analysis, sloppy reporting, and unsupported commentary about the Goldman Sachs case with a mixture of awe and dismay. He put together this list based on what he knows as a lawyer, a market observer, a quant and someone with contacts within the SEC. First of all, this is a very strong case, based upon what is in the SEC complaint. The claim that Paulson & Co. were long $200 million dollars when they were actually short is a material misrepresentation - that's Rule 10b-5, and it's a no brainer. The rest is gravy.

Ten Things You Don't Know (Or Were Misinformed) About the Goldman Sachs Case by Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture



The Greek debt crisis has morphed into something that is potentially more sinister for Europe and the global economy. What started out as a public finance issue is quickly turning into a banking problem too; and what started out as a Greek issue has become a full-blown crisis for Europe. Absent some remarkable change in the next few days, things will get even more complex for the public sector. It may have no choice but to combine its own exceptional financing efforts with talks on a controversial approach that will be familiar to emerging market observers - private sector involvement.


Greek Crisis Endangers Private Sector by Mohammed El-Erian of PIMCO


The market is strenuously overvalued, faces a syndrome of overextended conditions that has historically proved hostile, and relies to an incredible extent on the absence of further credit strains. Accepting a greater level of market exposure will require, at minimum, that we clear the present syndrome of overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield conditions. The quickest way to a more constructive investment stance would be a meaningful improvement in valuations (which would most likely be associated initially with a deterioration in market action), and no further credit strains.

Looking Back, Looking Forward by John P. Hussman of Hussman Funds

 

 

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