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July 27, 2010 - Vol 4, Issue 30


By All Accounts

Dear Reader,

As they approach retirement, baby boomers are increasingly concerned about how best to manage their portfolios during the decumulation phase of their lives.  One of the challenges for advisors and investors is understanding what role annuities should play, if any.  Geoff Considine shows that immediate annuities should be an important part of a decumulation strategy.

Dan Richards recently spoke with Robert Shiller, the Yale economist who foresaw the financial crisis and created the Case-Shiller housing index.  Shiller discusses the potential for a double-dip recession, valuations in the US equity market, and the outlook for a housing recovery.  We provide a transcript and a video.

New research shows how to talk to seniors about their investments.  Titled "Behavioral finance and the post-retirement crisis" and released in May, this report compiles findings on how older investors perceive risk and make financial decisions.  Dan Richards discusses the findings.

Listening may be the most critical part of your job, both for acquiring new clients and for maintaining current relationships.  Everyone's listening abilities are unique, but many common fears and anxieties can interfere with your innate listening skills.  In this guest contribution, Justin Locke identifies a few common problems and suggestions for how to work around them.

In this guest contribution, Jane Li of FundQuest argues that both active and passive investing have their strengths and weaknesses; it depends on the market segment in question and on the economic climate. Active managers tend to add value in bull markets, but their value is shakier in bear markets.

When a stock doesn't react to the news as you expect
, it's a sign of a possible investment opportunity. Mariko Gordon of Daruma Asset Management explains why, and offers three examples from her own history.
 
Kristen Luke provides the next two installments of her series on low-budget marketing for startup RIA firms.  She discusses how to develop networking and centers-of-influence referral strategies.

Lastly, we highlight submissions to Market Commentaries.

We welcome guest submissions from our readers.  For more information, here are our guidelines.

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star logoWhy Immediate Annuities Make Sense

Planning for the decumulation phase of life will receive increasing emphasis as the first wave of self-directed, defined-contribution plan investors enters retirement.  Annuities provide important benefits as one component of the long-term portfolio. 


Why Immediate Annuities Make Sense


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star logoRobert Shiller: A Cautious Outlook for Stocks

"Based on our forecast using regressions, it's a tough call whether stocks or bonds will pay more over the next 10 years," says Robert Shiller.  "It's not an inspired time."

Robert Shiller: A Cautious Outlook for Stocks (transcript)

Robert Shiller: A Cautious Outlook for Stocks (video)


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star logoImportant New Research: Talking to Seniors About Risk and Market Volatility

Ten top psychologists, consumer behavior experts and behavioral economists contributed to this report. Dan Richards provides some of their suggestions on how to frame conversations with seniors around risk and investing.

Important New Research Talking to Seniors About Risk and Market Volatility

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star logoRediscovering Your Listening Skills

Once you remove all these fear-driven learned limitations and complications from your conversations, listening becomes incredibly easy. And listening well is a wonderful thing to do for others - and for yourself.

Rediscovering Your Listening Skills


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star logoActive Managers Add More Value in Bull than Bear Markets

Many investors use active management in part to provide downside protection, but, on average, active managers did not outperform in bear markets after adjusting for risk. 

Active Managers Add More Value in Bull than Bear Markets

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star logoRaisin' Hell on Bagel Street

Any time a stock doesn't react the way you think it should to news, there's an investment opportunity waiting to be uncovered. And as with bagels, it's up to you to decide whether the price is slow to react or whether the news is already "baked" in.

Raisin' Hell on Bagel Street

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star logoParts 6 and 7 of a Marketing Guide for RIAs

Kristen Luke provides the next two installments of her series on low-budget marketing for startup RIA firms.  She discussed how to develop networking and centers-of-influence referral strategies.

A Marketing Guide for RIAs: Part 6 - Develop a Networking Strategy
A Marketing Guide for RIAs: Part 7 - Implement a Centers of Influence Referral Strategy

star logoHighlights from Market Commentaries

 

Investors who allow Wall Street to convince them that stocks are generationally cheap at current levels are like trout - biting down on the enticing but illusory bait of operating earnings, unaware of the hook buried inside. We should be skeptical about valuation metrics built on forward operating earnings and other measures that implicitly require U.S. profit margins to sustain levels about 50 percent above their historical norms indefinitely. More sober and historically reliable measures of market valuation create a much more challenging picture.

Don't Take the Bait by John P. Hussman of Hussman Funds

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This is a summary of Jeremy Grantham's 2Q 2020 newsletter. Grantham says that weak a weak economy and declining or flat prices are likely for the immediate future. A global equity portfolio with annual returns of 6 percent plus inflation is still possible, however, by overweighting high quality U.S. stocks and underweighting other U.S. stocks. Grantham also comments on the financial reform bill, fear and speculation in the stock market, global warming, the 'seven lean years' hypothesis, aging populations and health care costs.

Summer Essays by Jeremy Grantham of GMO



Why aren't we giddy about gold? In the abstract, gold is most attractive as a hedge in one of three extreme scenarios: high inflation, persistent deflation, or when the risk of global financial meltdown is large. Once national balance sheets are repaired through a protracted and gradual deleveraging of households and governments following the relatively rapid deleveraging of the financial sectors, particularly in the United States, excessive deflation and inflation fears will subside.

No Golden Ticket by Nouriel Roubini of RGE Monitor

 

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