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August 10, 2010 - Vol 4, Issue 32


Envestnet

Dear Reader,

Financial planners have eagerly awaited any research that could finally, definitively prove - or disprove - the pesky notion that active management is effective. Though no one has yet risen to that challenge, past academic studies have been improperly interpreted to show that portfolio policy, or asset allocation affects portfolio returns far more than active management.  As Ken Solow and Michael Kitces write in this guest contribution, the most recent study to tackle the active management debate, by Yale professor Roger Ibbotson, shares two weaknesses with previous research.

Among the most important things that good advisors bring is the ability to help clients make the right trade-off between risk and return ... and, as Dan Richards says, to help clients understand the critical relationship between the timeframe over which they hold investments and the volatility they experience.

In this interview, retirement expert Zvi Bodie discusses the role of stocks and annuities in a retirement portfolio, and how advisors and clients should think about risk.  A transcript and a video of the interview are provided.

Public pensions are severely underfunded, at least according to the economists.  Actuaries disagree, and at stake is nearly $2 trillion.  We look at why these groups arrive at such different valuations, and which one is likely to be correct.

More articles below...
American Century Investments

All financial advisors who provide investment advice directly to clients or exercise investment discretion over client assets should be subject to fiduciary standards.  In this guest contribution, Scott MacKillop takes exception to the article by John Lohr entitled "Fiduciary": Much Ado about Nothing! that appeared here last week.

When you have a certain degree of skill at a given task, people often assume that you will naturally be able to manage other people who do that same task.  That's how Justin Locke because a first-time manager in the orchestral business, and he shares a few important lessons to apply when you receive that important promotion that elevates you above your coworkers.

After Marxism, no economic theory today may be as derided and despised as the hypothesis of market efficiency.  The idea is often misunderstood, sometimes willfully. So what does "market efficiency" mean? In the latest installment of his series for the educated layman, Adam Jared Apt provides some answers.

Advisors serving 401(k)
plans may successfully improve investment performance, only to find out that the plan sponsor is totally unsatisfied.  In this guest contribution, Jeffrey Briskin relates a recent conversation that made that painfully obvious, and a recent study by his company confirmed that such outcomes occur all too often.

In the final installment of her series on low-budget marketing, Kristen Luke discusses how to put all the elements together in a written plan.

Lastly, we highlight submissions to Market Commentaries.

We welcome guest submissions from our readers.  For more information, here are our guidelines.

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star logoWhen Active Management Matters

Ibbotson's methodology masks the value of actively managing a fund's asset allocation and consequently it fails to reward "eclectic," unconstrained active managers.

When Active Management Matters


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star logoThree Steps to Talk About Risk

One of the most important conversations these days is about the amount of risk that clients should take in their portfolios. 

Three Steps to Talk About Risk


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star logoZvi Bodie on Stocks and Annuities in Retirement

"It constantly amazes me that people in the finance field who study markets and have seen in the past how wrong their forecasts can be, as recently as the last decade, still make point forecasts of the future with absolute certainty and great confidence," says Zvi Bodie.  "It seems nuts to me."

Zvi Bodie on Stocks and Annuities in Retirement (transcript)
Zvi Bodie on Stocks and Annuities in Retirement (video)

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star logoPublic Pension Showdown: Actuaries vs. Economists

Actuaries, so far, have had the upper hand in the debate over valuing fund liabilities; their approach is endorsed by Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. What ultimately matters, however, is whether the triumphant accounting method in this struggle leads pension funds to set aside enough funds to meet future promises to retirees.

Public Pension Showdown: Actuaries vs. Economists


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star logoTaking Exception: "Fiduciary" is Much Ado about Something!

In his article, Mr. Lohr states that the debate about fiduciary standards is "nothing more than unnecessary marketing hype."  He then goes on to assert that "stockbrokers already have a legal duty to act as a fiduciary to their clients!"  He is wrong on both counts. 

Taking Exception: "Fiduciary" is Much Ado about Something!


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star logoConfessions of a First-time Manager

When you are in the lonely and pressure-filled role of manager, it can be downright scary.  It's easy to focus on your own problems first, not the least of which is occasionally feeling "left out."

Confessions of a First-time Manager


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star logoIs the Market Efficient?

"At the level of entire classes of assets, though, I am less persuaded of the efficiency of markets," writes Adam Jared Apt.  "The case for market efficiency among asset classes is more theoretical than empirical."

Is the Market Efficient?

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star logoPerformance that Plan Sponsors Value Most

Advisors would like to think that investment performance sells plans. This is not the case.

Performance that Plan Sponsors Value Most


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star logoA Marketing Guide for RIAs Part 10 - Develop a Written Marketing Plan

In the final installment of her series on low-budget marketing, Kristen Luke discusses how to put all the elements together in a written plan.

A Marketing Guide for RIAs Part 10 - Develop a Written Marketing Plan


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star logoHighlights from Market Commentaries


It is disputed in a few corners, but more analysts and strategists view bonds as severely overvalued and stocks as symmetrically cheap. Advisors Capital Management shares this judgment and points to assorted different ways to reach this conclusion. Investors should be trying to inoculate their bonds holdings from losing value at some point and taking advantage of the upside potential in equities. The 'lost decade' in stocks could easily be followed by a lost decade in bonds, while stocks recover.

The Bubble In Bonds vs. Cheap Stocks by Charles Lieberman of Advisors Capital Management



It is impossible to properly estimate long-term cash flows based on a single year of earnings. It is also impossible to properly value the stock market based on a single year of earnings. If you are not looking at a 'valuation' methodology accompanied by long-term, decade-by-decade evidence showing that the valuation method is actually correlated with subsequent market returns (particularly over a horizon of say, 7-10 years), then you are not looking at the sound valuation work of an investment professional.

Valuing the S&P 500 Using Forward Operating Earnings by John P. Hussman of Hussman Funds



The unusual uncertainty in the economic outlook reflects the disruptive combination of deleveraging, reregulation, structural unemployment and other ongoing structural changes. It seems that, wherever we look, the snapshot for 'consensus expectations' has shifted from traditional bell-shaped curves to a much flatter distribution of outcomes. This changing shape of distributions affects conventional wisdom in the investment world.

Uncertainty Changing Investment Landscape by Robert Claridia and Mohammed El-Erian of PIMCO

 

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