New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will preside over his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 16-17, stepping in at a complex moment with inflation at a three-year high as oil prices remain elevated, labor market risks easing with job growth averaging ~140,000 year to date versus only 10,000 last year, and hawkish voices on the Fed gaining traction.
As we go to press, fighting in the Mideast has escalated, sending crude higher, but stocks, in early Monday trade, have shown remarkable stability following Friday’s deep selloff.
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) on June 11, responding to the energy shock from the Iran war. Inflation was revised higher for 2026 and 2027, and it is expected to fall to target in 2028. Although we expect one more hike, the timing is uncertain as the ECB is keeping all options open—including the possibility of not raising rates again.
This week the Fed has its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh. For only the third time in US history, the former Chair, Jerome Powell, will still participate as a regular member of the Board of Governors.
Gold has always had a way of testing investors’ expectations. Just when the headlines appear most supportive—inflation is rising, geopolitical risk is escalating and confidence in fiat currency is being questioned—gold can suddenly move in the opposite direction.
Six of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through June 15, 2026.
This is the underlying question in several books and articles that have been published recently, most notably Kenneth Rogoff’s “Our Dollar, Your Problem,” and Barry Eichengreen’s “Money Beyond Borders: Global Currencies from Croesus to Crypto” — the latter of which is the subject of this review.
The US insurance industry recently joined the fossil-fuel industry in its fight to avoid being sued over the damage oil, gas and coal emissions have done to the planet. Given that insurers are supposedly among the world’s biggest sufferers of those same climate-fueled losses, this was a perplexing choice — until you think about why Big Insurance and Big Oil might be on the same team.
There are two processes that we cannot escape: aging and math. This applies not only to human beings but also to large government social-insurance programs.
Builder confidence edged lower in June as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from May to 35 this month, marking the 26th consecutive negative reading.
Manufacturing activity rose modestly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions remained positive but dropped 13.9 points to 5.7, falling short of the 13.2 forecast.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The K-shaped economy has become shorthand for a tidy story. The rich pull away while everyone else falls behind. It fits the mood, and it makes for a sharp headline. The problem is that it’s mostly wrong. When you pull the actual Census data, the dominant move of the last half-century isn’t down.
Recent economic data continues to point to a resilient U.S. economy. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in May, while payrolls increased by 172,000 jobs. Hiring remained strongest in leisure and hospitality, though there were also encouraging signs from more cyclical areas of the economy.
The U.S. economy faced intensifying headwinds in May as both consumer and wholesale inflation metrics surged to multi-year highs.
Despite everything we have seen in the economic data, which can be confusing, the US consumer has refused to crack. My friend Dr. Ed Yardeni, whom I have known since '98, has the most compelling explanation I have heard for why.
The current economic downturn is best described as hybrid and structurally driven. It leans heavily on demand constraints, though it is triggered and complicated by ongoing supply shocks.
What do you do if you have a standard that’s not being met? Move the goalposts! Of course, you could work harder to meet the goal. But that’s hard. So, why not just change the standard and make it easier to meet?
The yield on the 10-year note finished June 12, 2026 at 4.48% while the 2-year note ended at 4.09%.
Silver's chart also weakened substantially, although the metal remains near important longer-term support levels and has not yet confirmed the same degree of structural breakdown seen in gold.
May's Producer Price Index (PPI) data delivered another blow to inflation watchers, as wholesale price growth came in hotter than expected.
In the week ending June 6th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 229,000, the highest level in four months. This represents an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's figure and was higher than the forecast of 220,000.
Many advisors deliver capital markets commentary as if the goal were simply to explain what’s happening. They assemble charts, cite data, summarize headlines and hope the client will draw the “right” conclusion.
Begin with the print itself, because the headline flatters the internals only slightly. The bulk of May's gains came from leisure and hospitality, which added 70,000 jobs, nearly half of them in food services and drinking places; local government contributed 55,000, health care 35,000, and manufacturing a modest 7,000, while financial activities actually shed positions.
The May release of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) places the year-over-year inflation rate at 4.25%, its highest level in over three years. This keeps inflation above the post-WWII average of 3.72% for a second straight month and marks the third consecutive month that the current rate is above the 10-year moving average, which currently sits at 3.27%.
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $54,604, down 6.1% from over 50 years ago.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation surged to 4.2% year-over-year in May, hitting its highest level in over three years. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was consistent with the forecast, driven primarily by cost increases in energy, shelter, and food.
Advisors now understand that clients expect a truly personalized experience. Clients no longer accept generic advice; they demand bespoke strategies, tailored communication, and engagement aligned with their unique needs and life stages.
With a new boss at the helm and expectations of billions in surplus gas revenue, the Qatar Investment Authority spent the past year telegraphing a step-up in dealmaking. Iran’s attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure and Doha’s inability to ship products risk hampering that push.
Equity markets should remain supported by strong earnings and capital investment trends through 2026, but market concentration and macro risks leave less room for error.
The Numbers Are Staggering – The Magnificent Seven stocks now carry a combined market cap larger than the GDPs of Germany, Japan, India, and the UK combined. Meanwhile, 2025 tech-sector capital expenditures rivaled the peak-year spending of the Manhattan Project, rural electrification, the Apollo moon shot, and the Interstate Highway System — all at once.
While job growth has reaccelerated, supporting consumption, the underlying income picture is less encouraging.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), providing forecasts for energy markets. This article presents the annual production outlooks for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), comparing the June 2026 projections against the previous month's estimates.
Gas prices fell for a fourth straight week, reaching their lowest level in six weeks. As of June 8th, weekly prices were down 16 cents for regular and down 15 cents for premium gasoline.
The rise in US yields has extended across the entire Treasury curve, creating a charged backdrop for Fed policymakers and their new chairman, Kevin Warsh, who helms his first meeting and press conference next week.
Existing home sales reached their highest level of the year in May, rising 3.2% after a 0.7% increase in April. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million units, surpassing the projected 4.07 million.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 0.6 points to 95.3, reaching its lowest level since October 2024. The index remains below its historical average for a third straight month.
The U.S. trade deficit shrunk just over 1% in April to $55.88B after expanding nearly 3% the previous month. The latest reading barely missed the forecast of -$56.20B.
The job market was surprisingly strong in May with non-farm payrolls growing 172,000, beating even the strongest forecasts for the month. As a result, the futures market is now pricing in a quarter-point rate hike later this year and more likely than not another quarter point rate hike sometime in 2027.
Fertilizers sit at the center of this transmission mechanism. As much as a third of the global supply of these commodities passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has largely been closed for three months. This has triggered shortages and a price spike.
In case you’ve been living under a rock for the past few months, three of the world’s largest and most consequential private companies—SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI—are preparing to go public in the same year. Together, they could add nearly $4 trillion in market cap to public markets.
Labor market fundamentals have improved meaningfully from last year’s near standstill while inflation has moved higher, driven in part by the Iran conflict and the resulting increase in petroleum and gasoline prices. As a result, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are likely becoming more concerned about the risk of broader inflation pressures, a theme highlighted in this week’s ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI releases.
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topoussis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
We are halfway through 2026, and the planning priorities that have defined our client work this year are in focus. Some of what we are doing is recurring: fixing compliance errors, correcting quarterly estimate miscalculations, and keeping tax positions aligned with economic reality.
May's employment report showed that 17.6% of total employed workers were part time and 82.4% of total employed workers were full-time.
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.1% of civilian employment in May, the lowest level in ten months.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
2026 is heading toward a four-peat of double-digit returns on U.S. stocks, but it will require P/Es to remain high — investors need to remain optimistic. In the past, when P/Es were high, investor fear kicked in and P/Es declined, causing stock market losses. Time will tell, but diversification is a reasonable strategy no matter the outcome.
My industry soundings are far more upbeat: When it happens, it would start as a trickle, but very quickly — in just a handful of weeks, if not days — transform into an oil flood. I’m on the side of the bears, as you may have guessed.
The bar for a Federal Reserve rate hike is falling as the job market remains robust in the face of stubborn price pressures, according to Collin Martin at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
The world is not ending. It is restructuring. But restructuring, as I noted at the outset, comes with an asterisk. What is really happening is a replacement, of assumptions, of guarantees, of the architecture that held everything together for eighty years.
Trade policy returned to the spotlight this week as the United States announced new tariffs on 60 countries, with rates of either 10% or 12.5% depending on the trading partner.
The U.S. labor market took center stage last week as three major labor market indicators outperformed forecasts. Robust payroll additions in both the public and private sectors, paired with a massive surge in job openings, point to a workforce on solid footing.
For years, the retirement industry has framed the challenge the same way: Participants aren’t engaged enough. Employers need better communication. Advisors need to educate more.
Some of that tension is also being felt by their clients, advisers say. Along with the anticipation of a life-changing windfall, the initial public offering is eliciting more complicated emotions, as well, ranging from apprehension to confusion.
Currencies in the developing world sank after a blowout US jobs report provided the clearest sign yet that the labor market is breaking out of a prolonged period of lackluster hiring, undercutting the case for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
When someone told me recently that her favorite use of AI is for financial advice, I was horrified. I am a retirement economist, and my first reaction was self pity: Now I know how doctors feel when people use AI for medical questions.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.
The latest employment report showed that 172,000 jobs were added in May, down slightly from April's 179,000 gain. This figure was more than double the projected addition of 85,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, as expected.
Soaring US power bills are threatening to claim their biggest victim yet — the nation’s largest electric grid operator.
The U.S. economy appears resilient, judging from key economic measures. AI-driven capex continues to power investment, support equity markets, and sustain a wealth effect that has propped up consumption. Real GDP growth remains positive. Private sector balance sheets are in generally good condition and many higher income and wealthy households have benefited from equity markets gains.
Climate change has become a defining force in geopolitics. As governments respond to record heat waves, floods, wildfires and droughts, their policies and economic posturing are reshaping manufacturing, trade and energy security across the capital markets.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 2026 close.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a its all-time high in May 2026. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.05% month-over-month and was up 1.04% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.02% month-over-month and up 0.40% year-over-year.
Vehicle sales inched up in May, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.083 million units. This represents a 0.4% increase from the previous month and a 3.2% rise from one year ago.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
Stocks extended their advance for a ninth consecutive week, with the S&P 500 rising more than 5 percent in May on the heels of April’s 10 percent rally. This nine-week run coincides with the market’s March 30 bottom, when early signs of a potential off-ramp or ceasefire in the Middle East began to emerge.
Even if the Middle East war does find a lasting settlement, the specter of inflation appears poised to hang over the markets. Indeed, while employment data had, up until recently, been the primary focus for investors, arguably, inflation reports have now moved into the ‘leaderboard’ position.
Learn what's in store for the remainder of 2026 and the challenges that lie ahead in our mid-year outlook for U.S. stocks and the economy.
Following the Q1 GDP second estimate, the 'Buffett Indicator'—the ratio of corporate equities to GDP—now stands at 229.7%. This marks the second-highest reading in history, eclipsed only by the previous quarter.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 54.5. This was higher than the forecast of 53.7 and keeps the index in expansion territory for a 23rd consecutive month.
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global inched down 0.3 points to 50.7, indicating slower expansion in the services sector. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 50.9 and was among the weakest months of expansion in the past 2.5 years.
US equities continued to climb higher in May, with the S&P 500 Index rising 5.1%. Further de-escalation of geopolitical tension in the Middle East has paved the way for the market’s 19.5% advance from the late-March lows.
For the dollar-denominated investor weighing how to position for the back half of 2026, last week tightened a thesis we have been building all year.
LPL Research analyzes stock valuations, finding them fair given growth, rates, inflation, and AI-driven earnings outlook despite risks.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
As advisors, our role is not to solve fiscal policy; it is to ensure our clients are positioned to weather the uncertainty that comes from that gap, stay committed to their long-term plans, and not let macroeconomic anxiety drive short-term decisions they will regret.
Individual expertise matters. But in complex situations, making good decisions also depends on your financial professionals sharing information. When you support and expect their collaboration, you are no longer the communication relay.
Based on May's S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 43.8 is 185% above its arithmetic mean, 213% above its geometric mean, and is in the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. As of May 2026, the latest Q-ratio is at 2.11, the highest level in history.
While the mass affluent market may not be feeling the brunt of inflation woes or the rising cost of living, its financial planning is still being impacted by current economic headwinds.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 25.9 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 39.9, the highest level since 2000.
The inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 207% above its long-term trend at the end of May.
Job openings jumped to their highest level in nearly two years in April, reaching 7.618 million vacancies according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This represents an increase of 731,000 from the previous month, the largest monthly rise since 2021.
Geopolitical risks are still lingering in the background, but the story lately has been all about earnings. A strong 1Q26 season, paired with a steady drumbeat of upbeat management commentary, has helped push the S&P 500 to 21 record highs this year.
Market Indicators
Warsh’s Frst FOMC Meeting Will Put Policy and Fed Independence in Focus
New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will preside over his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 16-17, stepping in at a complex moment with inflation at a three-year high as oil prices remain elevated, labor market risks easing with job growth averaging ~140,000 year to date versus only 10,000 last year, and hawkish voices on the Fed gaining traction.
Falling Oil Prices Reinforce Bullish Outlook
As we go to press, fighting in the Mideast has escalated, sending crude higher, but stocks, in early Monday trade, have shown remarkable stability following Friday’s deep selloff.
Can the Eurozone Tolerate Higher Rates for Long?
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) on June 11, responding to the energy shock from the Iran war. Inflation was revised higher for 2026 and 2027, and it is expected to fall to target in 2028. Although we expect one more hike, the timing is uncertain as the ECB is keeping all options open—including the possibility of not raising rates again.
Is Productivity Growth Picking Up?
This week the Fed has its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh. For only the third time in US history, the former Chair, Jerome Powell, will still participate as a regular member of the Board of Governors.
Gold Looks Oversold. Is This the Contrarian Moment Investors Have Been Waiting For?
Gold has always had a way of testing investors’ expectations. Just when the headlines appear most supportive—inflation is rising, geopolitical risk is escalating and confidence in fiat currency is being questioned—gold can suddenly move in the opposite direction.
World Markets Watchlist: June 15, 2026
Six of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through June 15, 2026.
Could the Dollar Be in Trouble – If So, What Then?
This is the underlying question in several books and articles that have been published recently, most notably Kenneth Rogoff’s “Our Dollar, Your Problem,” and Barry Eichengreen’s “Money Beyond Borders: Global Currencies from Croesus to Crypto” — the latter of which is the subject of this review.
Insurers Endure Self-Harm to Side With Big Oil
The US insurance industry recently joined the fossil-fuel industry in its fight to avoid being sued over the damage oil, gas and coal emissions have done to the planet. Given that insurers are supposedly among the world’s biggest sufferers of those same climate-fueled losses, this was a perplexing choice — until you think about why Big Insurance and Big Oil might be on the same team.
Raise Social Security Taxes — and Cut Benefits, Too
There are two processes that we cannot escape: aging and math. This applies not only to human beings but also to large government social-insurance programs.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Affordability Challenges Continue
Builder confidence edged lower in June as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from May to 35 this month, marking the 26th consecutive negative reading.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Modest Growth in June
Manufacturing activity rose modestly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions remained positive but dropped 13.9 points to 5.7, falling short of the 13.2 forecast.
Buyable Pullbacks. Be Prepared.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The K-Shaped Economy: Why The Middle Class Moved Up.
The K-shaped economy has become shorthand for a tidy story. The rich pull away while everyone else falls behind. It fits the mood, and it makes for a sharp headline. The problem is that it’s mostly wrong. When you pull the actual Census data, the dominant move of the last half-century isn’t down.
Opportunities Emerge in a Higher-Yield World
Recent economic data continues to point to a resilient U.S. economy. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in May, while payrolls increased by 172,000 jobs. Hiring remained strongest in leisure and hospitality, though there were also encouraging signs from more cyclical areas of the economy.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Spikes While Consumer Sentiment Breaks Its Decline
The U.S. economy faced intensifying headwinds in May as both consumer and wholesale inflation metrics surged to multi-year highs.
The G-Shaped Economy
Despite everything we have seen in the economic data, which can be confusing, the US consumer has refused to crack. My friend Dr. Ed Yardeni, whom I have known since '98, has the most compelling explanation I have heard for why.
Gold and Silver Pullbacks Temporary
The current economic downturn is best described as hybrid and structurally driven. It leans heavily on demand constraints, though it is triggered and complicated by ongoing supply shocks.
New Fed Chair Wants to Move the Inflation Goal Posts
What do you do if you have a standard that’s not being met? Move the goalposts! Of course, you could work harder to meet the goal. But that’s hard. So, why not just change the standard and make it easier to meet?
Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 12, 2026
The yield on the 10-year note finished June 12, 2026 at 4.48% while the 2-year note ended at 4.09%.
Silver Falls to Key Price Support Level as Bargain Hunters Swoop In
Silver's chart also weakened substantially, although the metal remains near important longer-term support levels and has not yet confirmed the same degree of structural breakdown seen in gold.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Hits Highest Level Since November 2022
May's Producer Price Index (PPI) data delivered another blow to inflation watchers, as wholesale price growth came in hotter than expected.
Initial Unemployment Claims Up 4K, Higher Than Expected
In the week ending June 6th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 229,000, the highest level in four months. This represents an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's figure and was higher than the forecast of 220,000.
Why Clients Get Stuck—and the Question That Changes Everything
Many advisors deliver capital markets commentary as if the goal were simply to explain what’s happening. They assemble charts, cite data, summarize headlines and hope the client will draw the “right” conclusion.
A Repricing, Not a Reversal
Begin with the print itself, because the headline flatters the internals only slightly. The bulk of May's gains came from leisure and hospitality, which added 70,000 jobs, nearly half of them in food services and drinking places; local government contributed 55,000, health care 35,000, and manufacturing a modest 7,000, while financial activities actually shed positions.
Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI
The May release of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) places the year-over-year inflation rate at 4.25%, its highest level in over three years. This keeps inflation above the post-WWII average of 3.72% for a second straight month and marks the third consecutive month that the current rate is above the 10-year moving average, which currently sits at 3.27%.
Real Middle Class Wages: May 2026
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $54,604, down 6.1% from over 50 years ago.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: May 2026
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation at 4.2% in May
Inflation surged to 4.2% year-over-year in May, hitting its highest level in over three years. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was consistent with the forecast, driven primarily by cost increases in energy, shelter, and food.
How Advisors Can Unlock True Hyper-Personalization in Wealth Management
Advisors now understand that clients expect a truly personalized experience. Clients no longer accept generic advice; they demand bespoke strategies, tailored communication, and engagement aligned with their unique needs and life stages.
Qatar Mega-Fund’s Plans for Bigger Deals Push Dented by War
With a new boss at the helm and expectations of billions in surplus gas revenue, the Qatar Investment Authority spent the past year telegraphing a step-up in dealmaking. Iran’s attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure and Doha’s inability to ship products risk hampering that push.
Global Equity Mid-Year Outlook 2026
Equity markets should remain supported by strong earnings and capital investment trends through 2026, but market concentration and macro risks leave less room for error.
Soaring Capital Expenditures in the Tech Sector: Good, Bad, or Ugly?
The Numbers Are Staggering – The Magnificent Seven stocks now carry a combined market cap larger than the GDPs of Germany, Japan, India, and the UK combined. Meanwhile, 2025 tech-sector capital expenditures rivaled the peak-year spending of the Manhattan Project, rural electrification, the Apollo moon shot, and the Interstate Highway System — all at once.
Strong Jobs Data and Inflation Keep Pressure on the Fed
While job growth has reaccelerated, supporting consumption, the underlying income picture is less encouraging.
Short-Term Energy Outlook: June 2026
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), providing forecasts for energy markets. This article presents the annual production outlooks for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), comparing the June 2026 projections against the previous month's estimates.
Gas Prices Reach Six-Week Low
Gas prices fell for a fourth straight week, reaching their lowest level in six weeks. As of June 8th, weekly prices were down 16 cents for regular and down 15 cents for premium gasoline.
Treasury Market Is Telling Kevin Warsh Rates Need to Be Higher
The rise in US yields has extended across the entire Treasury curve, creating a charged backdrop for Fed policymakers and their new chairman, Kevin Warsh, who helms his first meeting and press conference next week.
Existing Home Sales Reach Highest Level of 2026
Existing home sales reached their highest level of the year in May, rising 3.2% after a 0.7% increase in April. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million units, surpassing the projected 4.07 million.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Lowest Level Since October 2024
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 0.6 points to 95.3, reaching its lowest level since October 2024. The index remains below its historical average for a third straight month.
Trade Deficit Shrinks 1% in April
The U.S. trade deficit shrunk just over 1% in April to $55.88B after expanding nearly 3% the previous month. The latest reading barely missed the forecast of -$56.20B.
Are Rate Hikes on the Way?
The job market was surprisingly strong in May with non-farm payrolls growing 172,000, beating even the strongest forecasts for the month. As a result, the futures market is now pricing in a quarter-point rate hike later this year and more likely than not another quarter point rate hike sometime in 2027.
Fertilizer and Food
Fertilizers sit at the center of this transmission mechanism. As much as a third of the global supply of these commodities passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has largely been closed for three months. This has triggered shortages and a price spike.
Do SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI Belong in Your Portfolio? You Might Have No Choice
In case you’ve been living under a rock for the past few months, three of the world’s largest and most consequential private companies—SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI—are preparing to go public in the same year. Together, they could add nearly $4 trillion in market cap to public markets.
Employment and Inflation: Not Supportive of Rate Cuts
Labor market fundamentals have improved meaningfully from last year’s near standstill while inflation has moved higher, driven in part by the Iran conflict and the resulting increase in petroleum and gasoline prices. As a result, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are likely becoming more concerned about the risk of broader inflation pressures, a theme highlighted in this week’s ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI releases.
Mideast Escalation, Strong Jobs and Resilient Economy Delay Cuts
As we go to press, fighting in the Mideast has escalated, sending crude higher, but stocks, in early Monday trade, have shown remarkable stability following Friday’s deep selloff.
2026—The Year the Fed Pauses. Rates Range-Bound. Now What?
Chris Galipeau and Taylor Topoussis discuss high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Mid-Year 2026: 9 Tax Planning Strategies We Are Working On With Clients Right Now
We are halfway through 2026, and the planning priorities that have defined our client work this year are in focus. Some of what we are doing is recurring: fixing compliance errors, correcting quarterly estimate miscalculations, and keeping tax positions aligned with economic reality.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: May 2026
May's employment report showed that 17.6% of total employed workers were part time and 82.4% of total employed workers were full-time.
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.1% of Workers in May 2026
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.1% of civilian employment in May, the lowest level in ten months.
Unemployment Claims and the CLF as a Recession Indicator: May 2026
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Will the U.S. Stock Market 4-Peat in 2026?
2026 is heading toward a four-peat of double-digit returns on U.S. stocks, but it will require P/Es to remain high — investors need to remain optimistic. In the past, when P/Es were high, investor fear kicked in and P/Es declined, causing stock market losses. Time will tell, but diversification is a reasonable strategy no matter the outcome.
Brace for a Flood of Oil as Soon as Hormuz Reopens
My industry soundings are far more upbeat: When it happens, it would start as a trickle, but very quickly — in just a handful of weeks, if not days — transform into an oil flood. I’m on the side of the bears, as you may have guessed.
Fed Faces Rising Rate Hike Expectations, Schwab Center's Martin Says
The bar for a Federal Reserve rate hike is falling as the job market remains robust in the face of stubborn price pressures, according to Collin Martin at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
Brave New World
The world is not ending. It is restructuring. But restructuring, as I noted at the outset, comes with an asterisk. What is really happening is a replacement, of assumptions, of guarantees, of the architecture that held everything together for eighty years.
Tariffs Re-Enter the Spotlight
Trade policy returned to the spotlight this week as the United States announced new tariffs on 60 countries, with rates of either 10% or 12.5% depending on the trading partner.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Strong Labor Data Across the Board
The U.S. labor market took center stage last week as three major labor market indicators outperformed forecasts. Robust payroll additions in both the public and private sectors, paired with a massive surge in job openings, point to a workforce on solid footing.
Workplace Benefits: It’s Not a Communication Gap. It’s a Translation Opportunity.
For years, the retirement industry has framed the challenge the same way: Participants aren’t engaged enough. Employers need better communication. Advisors need to educate more.
SpaceX IPO Brings ‘Prime Time’ for Advisers Ahead of Wealth Surge
Some of that tension is also being felt by their clients, advisers say. Along with the anticipation of a life-changing windfall, the initial public offering is eliciting more complicated emotions, as well, ranging from apprehension to confusion.
Emerging-Market Currencies Sink on Gangbuster US Jobs Report
Currencies in the developing world sank after a blowout US jobs report provided the clearest sign yet that the labor market is breaking out of a prolonged period of lackluster hiring, undercutting the case for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
The Big Four Recession Indicators
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
Can AI Financial Advice Help You Retire More Comfortably?
When someone told me recently that her favorite use of AI is for financial advice, I was horrified. I am a retirement economist, and my first reaction was self pity: Now I know how doctors feel when people use AI for medical questions.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: May 2026 Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.
Employment Report: 172K Jobs Added in May, Higher Than Expected
The latest employment report showed that 172,000 jobs were added in May, down slightly from April's 179,000 gain. This figure was more than double the projected addition of 85,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, as expected.
AI Data Center Boom Risks Breakup of Biggest US Power Grid Operator
Soaring US power bills are threatening to claim their biggest victim yet — the nation’s largest electric grid operator.
The Quiet Erosion Beneath U.S. Growth
The U.S. economy appears resilient, judging from key economic measures. AI-driven capex continues to power investment, support equity markets, and sustain a wealth effect that has propped up consumption. Real GDP growth remains positive. Private sector balance sheets are in generally good condition and many higher income and wealthy households have benefited from equity markets gains.
Climate Power Plays: Energy, Geopolitics and the Repricing of Risk
Climate change has become a defining force in geopolitics. As governments respond to record heat waves, floods, wildfires and droughts, their policies and economic posturing are reshaping manufacturing, trade and energy security across the capital markets.
The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq: Real Returns Since 2000 Peak (May 2026)
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 2026 close.
The Total Return Roller Coaster: May 2026
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?
Secular Bull and Bear Market Trends: May 2026
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a its all-time high in May 2026. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
America's Driving Habits: April 2026
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.05% month-over-month and was up 1.04% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.02% month-over-month and up 0.40% year-over-year.
Vehicle Sales Inch Up 0.4% in May
Vehicle sales inched up in May, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.083 million units. This represents a 0.4% increase from the previous month and a 3.2% rise from one year ago.
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: May 2026
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
AI Drives Stock Market Higher Despite Uneven Growth
Stocks extended their advance for a ninth consecutive week, with the S&P 500 rising more than 5 percent in May on the heels of April’s 10 percent rally. This nine-week run coincides with the market’s March 30 bottom, when early signs of a potential off-ramp or ceasefire in the Middle East began to emerge.
Could the ‘I’ in AI Stand for Inflation?
Even if the Middle East war does find a lasting settlement, the specter of inflation appears poised to hang over the markets. Indeed, while employment data had, up until recently, been the primary focus for investors, arguably, inflation reports have now moved into the ‘leaderboard’ position.
2026 Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
Learn what's in store for the remainder of 2026 and the challenges that lie ahead in our mid-year outlook for U.S. stocks and the economy.
Buffett Valuation Indicator: May 2026
Following the Q1 GDP second estimate, the 'Buffett Indicator'—the ratio of corporate equities to GDP—now stands at 229.7%. This marks the second-highest reading in history, eclipsed only by the previous quarter.
ISM Services PMI: Continued Expansion in May
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 54.5. This was higher than the forecast of 53.7 and keeps the index in expansion territory for a 23rd consecutive month.
S&P Global Services PMI: Slower Expansion in May
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global inched down 0.3 points to 50.7, indicating slower expansion in the services sector. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 50.9 and was among the weakest months of expansion in the past 2.5 years.
AOR Update: Resilience
US equities continued to climb higher in May, with the S&P 500 Index rising 5.1%. Further de-escalation of geopolitical tension in the Middle East has paved the way for the market’s 19.5% advance from the late-March lows.
Records on the Tape. Savings at a Three-Year Low.
For the dollar-denominated investor weighing how to position for the back half of 2026, last week tightened a thesis we have been building all year.
Add Context, and Stock Market Valuations are Fair
LPL Research analyzes stock valuations, finding them fair given growth, rates, inflation, and AI-driven earnings outlook despite risks.
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
America's Tab: What 100% Debt-to-GDP Means for Advisors
As advisors, our role is not to solve fiscal policy; it is to ensure our clients are positioned to weather the uncertainty that comes from that gap, stay committed to their long-term plans, and not let macroeconomic anxiety drive short-term decisions they will regret.
Clear Communication Helps Your Financial Team Help You
Individual expertise matters. But in complex situations, making good decisions also depends on your financial professionals sharing information. When you support and expect their collaboration, you are no longer the communication relay.
Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: May 2026
Based on May's S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 43.8 is 185% above its arithmetic mean, 213% above its geometric mean, and is in the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: May 2026
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. As of May 2026, the latest Q-ratio is at 2.11, the highest level in history.
How Advisors Can Adapt as the Needs of the Mass Affluent Change
While the mass affluent market may not be feeling the brunt of inflation woes or the rising cost of living, its financial planning is still being impacted by current economic headwinds.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: May 2026
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 25.9 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 39.9, the highest level since 2000.
Regression to Trend: S&P Composite 207% Above Trend in May
The inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 207% above its long-term trend at the end of May.
Job Openings Jump to Near 2-Year High in April
Job openings jumped to their highest level in nearly two years in April, reaching 7.618 million vacancies according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This represents an increase of 731,000 from the previous month, the largest monthly rise since 2021.
Market Focus Shifts From Earnings to Macro Catalysts
Geopolitical risks are still lingering in the background, but the story lately has been all about earnings. A strong 1Q26 season, paired with a steady drumbeat of upbeat management commentary, has helped push the S&P 500 to 21 record highs this year.